NCAAF Week 10 Leans & Plays

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Solid week last week going 5-3 in sides and 1-2 on ML plays. Hit all my big sides, so definitely no complaints. On to this week...

'an_horse'

Week 10 Plays

Illinois -11.5 [1 Unit] :D

San Diego State +4 [1 Unit] :D

Nevada -6.5 [1 Unit] :mad:

Clemson -16.5 [0.6 Units] :D

2nd Half LSU -6.5 [0.6 Units] :D

Michigan -4 [0.5 Units] :rolleyes:

Rutgers +3 [0.5 Units] :mad:

Tulsa -6.5 [0.5 Units] :D

UCLA pk [0.4 Units] :mad:

& a Totals play...

Army/Air Force OVER 45 [1 Unit] :mad:

& a ML play...

Virginia Tech +120 [0.8 Units] :D


'an_horse'

Week 10 Leans

Indiana -6.5

Wisconsin +16

Nevada -6.5 --> played

Virginia Tech +3 --> played ML instead

Clemson -16 --> played


:cheers:

All feedback is greatly appreciated! Let's get 'er done fellas!
 
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Like the Illinois team, I am unsure of what to think about Rutgers @ Connecticut and I like Indiana in the leans because they need this for bowl eligibility and its homecoming. Ball State a good squad, but not great, should at least lose by a TD here. And VT scares me going on the road with Glennon, I am telling people he has never won that big game on the road.
 
if i had to bet the seven games listed above ,,,,, i would be on your side of all of them. i most certainly would not be surprised to see indiana and wisconsin make my card this week. gl this week AZZIE !!!!
 
Kobe - Thanks for the feedback bro! While I do think UConn is a solid football team, their lucky breaks have been unreal this season. I just like my chances with RU getting 3 with a better rushing attack, not to mention RU has had the tougher schedule to this point in the season. Also, Teel looks much improved.

VK - Thanks kyle! Glad to hear you like my plays and leans thus far. Also, nice call on Utah St the other week when I asked your opinion. You were dead on bro! GL this week!

pags - As always, thanks bro & GL!

sportfanatic - Thanks bud...GL!

Mags - I'm close to pulling the trigger on Nevada. Thoughts?...

:cheers:
 
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Hey Aztec, solid season you have going!

I like your Illinois play and you got a good number on Rutgers, well done. For the life of me, I don't understand everyone's infatuation with Tulsa, week in and week out. If I'm not mistaken, they haven't covered a game in weeks.

I think this wknd is a good spot for our Aztecs, catching points at home vs a team that is offensively challenged. Wyoming is one of the teams we generally play well against, and if we put forth the same effort we had vs NM, I think we cover (and win) this game.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this one as well.

G/L.
 
Nevada has won big the last couple of years. Additionally, Graziano is playing well also.
 
horses said:
Hey Aztec, solid season you have going!

I like your Illinois play and you got a good number on Rutgers, well done. For the life of me, I don't understand everyone's infatuation with Tulsa, week in and week out. If I'm not mistaken, they haven't covered a game in weeks.

I think this wknd is a good spot for our Aztecs, catching points at home vs a team that is offensively challenged. Wyoming is one of the teams we generally play well against, and if we put forth the same effort we had vs NM, I think we cover (and win) this game.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this one as well.

G/L.
Click to expand...

horses - Hey bud! First off, thanks for stoppin by! Glad you like the Illini play.

Honestly, I'm not that infatuated with Tulsa this year, as this will only be the third time I've wagered on them. However, Tulane's weakness is most definitely in their secondary...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Tulsa's Overall Scoring vs Tulane's Overall Defense</TD><TD></TD><TD>19</TD><TD></TD><TD>80</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Tulsa's Road Passing vs Tulane's Home Defense</TD><TD></TD><TD>5</TD><TD></TD><TD>106</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Tulsa's Road Rushing vs Tulane's Home Defense</TD><TD></TD><TD>30</TD><TD></TD><TD>63</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Tulane's Overall Scoring vs Tulsa's Overall Defense</TD><TD></TD><TD>93</TD><TD> </TD><TD>112</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Tulane's Home Passing vs Tulsa's Road Passing Defense</TD><TD></TD><TD>111</TD><TD></TD><TD>42</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD>Tulane's Home Rushing vs Tulsa's Road Rushing Defense</TD><TD></TD><TD>56</TD><TD></TD><TD>105</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Both teams have been bit by the turnover bug this season, and neither defense has been very opportunistic. If Tulsa comes out + in the turnover margin this Saturday, they win by DD's no problem. In the last five weeks, Tulsa is -10 in the TO margin, yet 3-2 straight up. I think half the reason for their recent 0-5 ATS woes are the large spreads at home (Tulsa was favored by 14 twice and 24 once). All the Golden Hurricanes have to do is hold onto the ball, and they will continue to dominate Tulane like they have in their previous two meetings.

While I'm not totally sold on our Aztecs yet, I am leaning that way. I still wonder if the team will be in the right mindset for the game. Hell, I'm still reeling from that loss last Saturday. You are right about SDSU generally playing well against Wyoming...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=statsBlock><TD width="100%">San Diego State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wyoming.</TD></TR><TR class=statsBlock><TD width="100%">San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wyoming.

The trends bode well, but we have been awful running the ball at home this year. If we can get something going with Bornes, Henderson, and O'Connell, then I think a SU win is definitely possible. Any reasons you like SDSU in particular?...

:cheers:
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Space - I posted some thoughts above. 'an_horse'

Yanks - Thanks bro. GL this week! :cheers:

Mags - You're right...I don't know why I thought NM State beat them last year. :whip:

Ramble - Thanks bro, and GL!
 
I sure like you and horses being sold on a solid Aztec showing this weekend. For those not familiar with the two teams this looks like an easy bet on WYO. Going to lock it now. GL with the rest of the card.
 
Aztec,

I see them on your card already.

We weren't able to run at home against either Cincy or New Mexico; Wyoming is in neither's class. First off, the Lobos visited both Wyoming and SDSU and I like the Aztecs effort at home vs the Lobos a lot more. I also like the large edge at QB SDSU will enjoy in this game; Cowboys going back and forth btw Sween and the other guy whose name I can't remember right now. Aztec weakness has been in the back and tough to see Wyoming exploiting this too much.

SDSU has been off two weeks which will allow and has allowed injuries to mend; they will have more depth at LB this game than they've had all year. As far as the teams mindset goes...they were real pissed they let the NM game get away, esp O'Connell. O'Connell is underrated because he's on such a shitty team, but he has been playing with a ton of heart his senior year and is arguable the best offensive player on the field in this game.

I don't see any real advantages for either side on the field; SDSU has had time off while Wyoming is off of a not too impressive home win vs UNLV. I'll take the home dog.
 
Thanks for the feedback, horses! After talking with both you and JPicks, it feels like a solid play.

JPicks - GL to us this week brotha! :cheers:
 
Fear the Gopher this weekend, my friend...

attachment.php
 
Aztec, nice hit on VT and nice card overall, I don't disagree with any and have some of the same plays, keep it up boss!
 
ETG - Thanks brotha! Glad you like the card. GL to both of us!

Adding...

2nd Half LSU -6.5 [0.6 Units]

:cheers:
 
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BigRaktor - Let's do this bro!

SS - Yep, no more danger here bro. Thanks for asking, and GL to you too!

Also, my reasons for betting on Nevada...

1. Nevada has a clear edge in coaching, as Ault is already in the HOF. Seriously...would you want Hal Mumme, or Chris Ault? Not to mention, Ault and his squad have owned the Aggies the past two seasons (before '05, the last year these two teams played was '99). The average margin of victory for Nevada the past two years has been 26 points.

2. Colin Kaepernick is quietly having a terrific season for the Wolfpack since stepping in for Graziano. Kaepernick has thrown 10 TDs and only 1 INT in the past six games. Granted, the stats are skewed a bit by the crazy, multiple OT game against Boise State, but only one INT is quite impressive. On the Aggies side, Holbrook is still a little banged up, but even more importantly, he no longer has Chris Williams to throw the ball to. Of Holbrook's 18 TD passes this season, 11 of them were to Williams, who is out indefinitely. This is a DEVASTATING blow to the New Mexico State passing game, and offense in general.

3. Clearly, Nevada's weakness is their rush defense, as they're giving up an average of over 200 yards/game on the ground. Fortunately, NM State is just awful at running the ball, averaging less than 100 yards/game on the ground. Nevada has faced some good rushing attacks thus far, and I see them having little trouble stopping the Aggie ground game. Nevada's pass defense has been solid all season, which should add more pressure to a nicked up Holbrook who's missing his favorite target. NM State cannot stop the run or the pass, so Nevada should have no trouble scoring tonight.

My prediction...

Nevada 41
NM State 21


:cheers:
 
Man...Nevada's defense was horrible tonight. Anyhow, adding one more...

Clemson -16.5 [0.6 Units]


'an_horse'
 
GambleOn - Thanks bro...same to you!

HUNT - Thanks brotha! Let's keep this ball rollin!


Adding...

Michigan -4 [0.5 Units]

UCLA pk [0.4 Units]


'an_horse'
 
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4-1 on my larger sides today! 1-2-1 on my smaller sides. My ML win and Totals Play loss ended up being a wash.

Finished up around 1.5 Units on the day, so no complaints!

Oh yeah...my Aztecs WON, scoring the game winning TD with 1 minute to go in the game! It's awesome that we played with so much heart, trailing 21-0 early, only to rally late and win 27-24 at the tail end! My hats off to the squad!

Hope you guys had a profitable week!
 
Aztec4Life said:
4-1 on my larger sides today! 1-2-1 on my smaller sides. My ML win and Totals Play loss ended up being a wash.

Finished up around 1.5 Units on the day, so no complaints!

Oh yeah...my Aztecs WON, scoring the game winning TD with 1 minute to go in the game! It's awesome that we played with so much heart, trailing 21-0 early, only to rally late and win 27-24 at the tail end! My hats off to the squad!

Hope you guys had a profitable week!
Click to expand...

:smiley_acbe:
 
nice day, and forgot to tell you I went ahead with VT cause I miss read the line and once I saw they were dogs, had to hit that shit.
 
Aztec4Life said:
Oh yeah...my Aztecs WON, scoring the game winning TD with 1 minute to go in the game! It's awesome that we played with so much heart, trailing 21-0 early, only to rally late and win 27-24 at the tail end! My hats off to the squad!

Hope you guys had a profitable week!
Click to expand...


Yes they did :cheers:
 
KobeJames - Thanks bro! Nice hit on VT!

SS - That they did, bro! Despite a dismal first 25 minutes of the game, the Aztec played lights out in the second half.
 
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