Wiretowire
Pretty much a regular
YTD +413
Alabama/Ohio St over 75 x200
I am posting this now instead of waiting because I have to believe that even if covid hits both teams they will reschedule this game so that both teams are mostly unaffected and at reasonable full strength. And if not it won't be the first time the NCAA has done something to favor one conference over another.
I know Blood would think I was being foolish for not just taking Bama to cover the spread but I have some doubts about that. Win? Yes. I believe Bama will. But covering is another story. So I am going to take the safer route and bet over even though my nose is bleeding from how high this total is. But win or lose this bet, I will still finish the year winning for the season and that's not easy to do when you are posting picks every week, week in and week out.
Why the over?
There is no disputing Bama's offense. Harris is a tank, Jones has proven to be very capable, and Smith is obviously the best receiver in the country. They are more a machine than anything else. They can and will run and pass against anyone. Bama should score there and score a ton if OSU plays that safety 20 yards from the ball. Day didn't do that as much against Clemson but we will see what he does against Bama.
On defense, Bama is somewhat suspect but that is pretty much based on what Saban does with his corners. Play them best on best and he will have his best success. But he doesn't normally do that. I think he believes that he will play things his way and that will be good enough. But if Ohio St can isolate Olave and Wilson on LB's or safeties it most certainly will not be good enough. And even if they do play best on best Olave may just be too fast for them. He certainly was against Clemson but I have no way to compare Bama and Clemson team speed until they run their first pass route. Ohio St should score there.
Fields, in my opinion had his best day ever against Clemson. But Clemson, or you could say his offensive line, gave him all day to throw. Will he have that kind of time against Bama? I don't know. But the time he had to throw allowed him to look around and go through his progressions which is something he never did much before. It paid off for him as he found a ton of open receivers obviously. One could make the case that almost any QB would look great with that kind of time. But again he did play very well so maybe he steps up again. If he does and Sermon has another good game OSU will score. Sermon has looked very good his last two games so that will help scoring as well. But as I said earlier Saban may make it really easy for Fields the way he plays his defense. The OSU receivers could be running free. Another factor to consider was OSU utilized their TE's a lot against Clemson and very successfully. So even if Saban plays best on best the LB's still have to contend with a fired up Sermon and the TE's which normally the TE's pass coverage falls to the LB's as well as stopping the run so there is added pressure there.
All I am going to say about OSU defense is they are horrible at pass defense. I think I saw they were ranked 103rd in the nation. That's a lot of bad teams that do much better than they do guarding against the pass. Again, as I said earlier Jones is very capable and Harris is a load so the OSU LB's better come to play. And if that safety does play 20 yards off the ball it could get very ugly very quickly.
In my final opinion, even though the total is very high, so much depends on what we see of both teams game plans, and of course we won't see that until the first snap, I think it is too tough to pick a side with a better than TD spread. Over is safer. Sorry Blood.
In any event, I am impressed they pulled it off and actually had a college football season. It has been a very good and profitable season and I look forward to seeing you in this forum again next year in a more hopefully normal season. GL
Alabama/Ohio St over 75 x200
I am posting this now instead of waiting because I have to believe that even if covid hits both teams they will reschedule this game so that both teams are mostly unaffected and at reasonable full strength. And if not it won't be the first time the NCAA has done something to favor one conference over another.
I know Blood would think I was being foolish for not just taking Bama to cover the spread but I have some doubts about that. Win? Yes. I believe Bama will. But covering is another story. So I am going to take the safer route and bet over even though my nose is bleeding from how high this total is. But win or lose this bet, I will still finish the year winning for the season and that's not easy to do when you are posting picks every week, week in and week out.
Why the over?
There is no disputing Bama's offense. Harris is a tank, Jones has proven to be very capable, and Smith is obviously the best receiver in the country. They are more a machine than anything else. They can and will run and pass against anyone. Bama should score there and score a ton if OSU plays that safety 20 yards from the ball. Day didn't do that as much against Clemson but we will see what he does against Bama.
On defense, Bama is somewhat suspect but that is pretty much based on what Saban does with his corners. Play them best on best and he will have his best success. But he doesn't normally do that. I think he believes that he will play things his way and that will be good enough. But if Ohio St can isolate Olave and Wilson on LB's or safeties it most certainly will not be good enough. And even if they do play best on best Olave may just be too fast for them. He certainly was against Clemson but I have no way to compare Bama and Clemson team speed until they run their first pass route. Ohio St should score there.
Fields, in my opinion had his best day ever against Clemson. But Clemson, or you could say his offensive line, gave him all day to throw. Will he have that kind of time against Bama? I don't know. But the time he had to throw allowed him to look around and go through his progressions which is something he never did much before. It paid off for him as he found a ton of open receivers obviously. One could make the case that almost any QB would look great with that kind of time. But again he did play very well so maybe he steps up again. If he does and Sermon has another good game OSU will score. Sermon has looked very good his last two games so that will help scoring as well. But as I said earlier Saban may make it really easy for Fields the way he plays his defense. The OSU receivers could be running free. Another factor to consider was OSU utilized their TE's a lot against Clemson and very successfully. So even if Saban plays best on best the LB's still have to contend with a fired up Sermon and the TE's which normally the TE's pass coverage falls to the LB's as well as stopping the run so there is added pressure there.
All I am going to say about OSU defense is they are horrible at pass defense. I think I saw they were ranked 103rd in the nation. That's a lot of bad teams that do much better than they do guarding against the pass. Again, as I said earlier Jones is very capable and Harris is a load so the OSU LB's better come to play. And if that safety does play 20 yards off the ball it could get very ugly very quickly.
In my final opinion, even though the total is very high, so much depends on what we see of both teams game plans, and of course we won't see that until the first snap, I think it is too tough to pick a side with a better than TD spread. Over is safer. Sorry Blood.
In any event, I am impressed they pulled it off and actually had a college football season. It has been a very good and profitable season and I look forward to seeing you in this forum again next year in a more hopefully normal season. GL
