Wire -- I agree it's a lot of points, also, but this Oregon team might be the best in the country. No. 2 total offense, No. 15 total defense, both well ahead of UW. Since their loss in Seattle, the Ducks have been extremely dominant in arguably the best conference in the country. USC played them to within 9, WSU within 14. Otherwise, they were Duck bloodbaths, including 31-7 at home against OSU and 35-6 at Utah. In the same span, UW had one double-digit win, 10 over USC, but won by a TD or less against ASU, WSU, OSU and Utah. I guess that means the Huskies are battle-tested, which is certainly a plus.
In their head-to-head, UO was better than UW on offense and defense, but three questionable fourth-down calls -- two in the first half, one that gave UW a short field in the final couple minutes -- backfired and proved monumental. There were a lot of different opinions on UO coach Dan Lanning's decisions, and he even said afterward he'd reevaluate his choices. He might still gamble and come up short, but one thing I think could be the deciding factor here: Lanning is young, energetic, gets fired up and will motivate his players as well as most coaches in the country. And I can't imagine him and them being more motivated for any game since he's been there, not the Colorado game against Prime when his locker room speech went viral, not last week's Civil War. And if he has the upper hand tonight, he won't let up. Case in point, Nix was still throwing deep against OSU late in a game that was decided last Friday.
I fully expect the Ducks to win, and I'm betting them to cover. In one flyer parlay, I alt-ed them up -14. Could Penix get a backdoor? Sure. He's picked more than a few defenses apart. And Washington is hardly chopped liver. But I think there's legit reasoning for the big spread.
(I know your play is in, Wire, and this matters little, but thought I'd share. I played a few holes with Lanning in the summer during a benefit tourney and was at the Civil War. I might be a bit biased, but I am thoroughly impressed with nearly everything about him and his approach.) Good luck.
