ncaa wk 7

[slim5150]

wk 2 6-3 +2.70
wk 3 5-6 -1.32
wk 4 12-11 +1.84
wk 5 1-6-1 -5.58
wk 6 15-12-1 +1.18
wk 7 12-11 +1.535

Still down about a unit on the year. Left off a couple winners, and added a couple losers. That's fine, plenty of time left.

Got down on a couple openers real quick:

L Duke +14 (-1.1)
W Kentucky +11.5 (+1)

I was looking over the LSVC openers and those kind of stuck out to me. Good spots for both I think as I think Kentucky will keep it close enough with LSU and Duke, well I think Tech's offense will let Duke be able to keep it close. Double digit home dogs in conference play this time of year are very nice.

LSU has a big revenge game vs Auburn next week, and Kentucky is coming off a disappointing loss. When looking over Kentucky's schedule, I thought they could potentiall win one of the two vs FLa and LSU back to back, giving them a better chance against the Gators than LSU.

Tech has a bye next week and so do the Devils. Duke has been shutout 3 of the last four in this series and have averaged 87 ypg over that span. Duke's offense has shown some improvement this year, but if the VT defense shows a 100% effort, they could get stymied again. While the scoreboard said 41 vs Clemson, the offense only helped out for about half that. Hokies defense and special teams managed 3 scores, and the offense up only 2 tds and 2 fgs. One of those TD's was from a drive that began in with about 5 on the clock and was punched in by ORE with under 1.30 remaining. Like I said above, I think Tech's offense can keep Duke in this one.

 

[HUNT]

like the thoughts slim..gl bro.

 

[slim5150]

thanks hunt, gl to you also. Saw that chick in RJ's thread, figured it would wind up in someone's avatar. She looks like she might be with child. Don't matter, still hot

 

[bell14l]

good luck on your plays slim. I like your thoughts on the duke game and your thoughts about kentucky.

 

[slim5150]

no bell, thank you for your post with that lovely avatar. Love those FSU girls.

 

[slim5150]

picked up 3 totals that I liked. Minny opened 2 points lower, and Cincy 3 points higher, but I liked the under at 68 that LVSC put it at, so I am still comfortable with it. I hoped marshall would open in the mid 60's, but anything under 70 I was going to play.

W Minnesota ov 66 -110 (+1)
w Cincy u69 -110 (+1)
w Marshall ov 68.5 -110 (+1)

Only other totals I am looking at are the Wyo under (Altho is opening at 47 and getting bet up quickly is a slight concern) and Oregon State under as I think their defense can limit Cal a bit, and Oregon state will give them a steady dose of a running attack, at least in the first half

 

[E.T.G.]

I can't hate on the Duke play, I was thinking about taking them last week but am giving them more consideration this week. GL

 

[slim5150]

ETG, two that I was mad about leaving off my card last week were both UNC and Duke, but I pussed out because the number was below 7 last time I looked for both.

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but I just hope that Duke can continue to play with a little bit of motivation because they think they don't suck anymore, and next Saturday should take care of itself.

It doesn't hurt that VT is off a very nice road win over Clemson and have BC in two weeks.

 

[slim5150]

It's sure not something I am happy about doing, but I am going to back Wannstedt U. I spoke with a friend of mine from Virginia who is a big east nut, and he said if Pitt would use McCoy more, they would be better off for it. Everyone is aware that Navy is going to run the ball, but they are going to be up against a very good defense against the run. Bostick has made a lot of mistakes, but he is a freshman and those things will happen. Also, they went against some teams with decent pass defense, all of which are better than the one Navy will put on the field today.

I like the fact that Pitt has had the bye week to get healthy, and hopefully Wanny has got his troops going in the right direction.

L Pitt -4 -101 MB 1unit (-1.01 always remember to fade the stache)

 

[slim5150]

W Wake +6 -112 matchbook (+1)

If for some strange reason it would go above 7, I would probably put another unit on it.

First thing that comes to mind in this tilt is revenge. Wake thumped FSU at their own house last year 30-0. I'm not going to buy to much into the revenge thing, it's really a hit or miss proposition. The FSU offense has been decent at times, and other times they can fold up like a tent. FSU does have a very good defense, but can be beaten moreso by the pass than the run.

Wake has performed very well in the home dog role since Grobe has been at the helm (11-7 ATS). FSU has Miami on deck and Wake has Navy, each has a log week heading into the next one. I am not quite sure who wins, but am confident in the fact FSU has struggled to put points on the board away from home, and Wake should be in this right down to the wire. Plus fading a top 25 team has been profitable the last few weeks, so why should it not continue here.

 

[slim5150]

adding a couple

L kent +30.5 ev MB (half) (-.5)
W AF +4 -113 MB (+1)

Considering a few more: wyo, SJSu, UNC, MIA, Miss, BGSU, SDSU, ARMY, ark, marsh, indy, couple more too, but would need big line moves for consideration.

 

[slim5150]

w SJSU +17 -107 5dimes. (+1)

I'll gladly take the dog in this huge conference contest. Figure the Hawaii speed will be slowed down a bit on the grass surface of Spartan Stadium, and there is a possibility of some nasty weather, so that could limit the effectiveness of the speedy Hawaii receivers also.

I am not very good at writing down thoughts, so I will stop now.

 

[slim5150]

reduced kent to a half unit play.

All plays for 1 unit unless otherwise specified.

L e. Mich +5 -109 MB (-1.09)
L N'Western -6.5 -110 Bodog (half) (-.55)
L Mia-FL -2.5 +105 MB (half) (-1)
W ole Miss +7 -116 MB (+1)
L Toledo +4.5 -103 MB (-1.03)
W N. Mex +4 -110 BM (+1)
L SDSU +14.5 -105 MB (half) (-.525)
W Iowa +4.5 -101 MB (half) (+.5)
L BC -13.5 -105 MB (-1.05)
W Auburn +3 -103 MB (+1)
W Uconn +3 +102 MB (+1.02)
L UCF +11.5 -103 MB (-1.03)

L 3team 10 point teaser @ Bodog -110 (-1.1)
Duke +24.5
UCF +21.5
N. Mex +14

Interested in a couple more, But I am a little tipsy, and very tired. GL to all int he morning.

 

[slim5150]

wk 7 12-11 +1.535

I continue to be burned by the MAC, but I keep on trying. Lost by the hook on the BC game, but a positive week is fine by me.