NCAA Week 4

Timh

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Record YTD

Sides 8-12, -5.75
Totals 4-1, +2.9
Teasers 3-3, -1.4
1h 1-2, -1.25
2h 2-2, -1.3
ML 1-0, +1.0
Parlays 2-0, +3.18

Total 21-20, -2.62 units

Basically juicing out these first couple weeks and not making any progress. Trying to watch as many games as I can to get a feel for these teams.

LSU -2 2.2/2
LSU/Auburn under 38 3.3/3 (added unit)
Penn State -28 1.1/1
KState 1h -3 -115 1.15/1
KState -5 1.1/1
Penn State -15.5 1h 2.2/2
Iowa Pick 1.1/1
3 Team Tease Ala -1/2, Akron Even, EMich +30.5 1.65/1.5
3 Team Tease Penn State -19, LSU under 47, Utah +1 2.2/2
Miami -2.5 2.2/2
Mich State -8.5 2.2/2
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Last edited:
Timh said:
Record YTD

Sides 8-12, -5.75
Totals 4-1, +2.9
Teasers 3-3, -1.4
1h 1-2, -1.25
2h 2-2, -1.3
ML 1-0, +1.0
Parlays 2-0, +3.18

Total 21-20, -2.62 units

Basically juicing out these first couple weeks and not making any progress. Trying to watch as many games as I can to get a feel for these teams.

LSU -2 2.2/2
Click to expand...


first grats to those terps last week.

care to share reasoning behind the lsu play ( leaning strong that way and wouldnt mind a good push )
 
Kyle - I was looking at the lines last night and was shocked to see LVSC have Auburn at -1.5. I watched a good portion of their game Sat. night, switching back and forth off USC/OST and I was not at all impressed with their offensive play calling. Lot of telegraph pitch plays, some in ill advised situations and the passing game didn't look good at all. Seems to me the spread is still a work in progress for Auburn, and I liked their pro-set better.
 
Penn State -28 1.1/1 - Just think Temple is over matched on the LOS on both sides of the ball here and will have little if any success trying to run the ball. Penn State should be able to run at will vs. the Owls and will just grind them down physically.
 
GL Timh, I like that play on LSU and Auburn has been less than impressive this year. I think you'll start hitting the winning stride this week:cheers:
 
Thanks MCM and Cash, GL to you fellas this week.

KState 1h -3 -115 1.15/1
KState -5 1.1/1
 
LSU/Auburn under 38 2.2/2 - See a defensive oriented field position type game here with TO's and special teams plays being integral. As I mentioned above I haven't been impressed with what I have seen out of Auburn's spread offense so far. I read where their coordinator blamed it on scripting too many plays and not just going with gut situational calls and vowed to be more improvisational for this game. I'm not sure if it isn't the execution that's a lot of the problem and just don't see Auburn doing much in the passing game. Unless there are an inordinate number of TO's I can't see this one going over as the defenses dominate.
 
Chopz - I went around and around on this game and finally played WV -2.5 small. No great feeling one way or the other.
 
Marlo - I don't think they will overlook EM, whether they cover is another story all together though but I will say I don't like them laying this many points. D. Scott is doubtful with sprained shoulder and that definitely hurts. EM missing QB Schmidt.
 
Timh said:
Marlo - I don't think they will overlook EM, whether they cover is another story all together though but I will say I don't like them laying this many points. D. Scott is doubtful with sprained shoulder and that definitely hurts. EM missing QB Schmidt.
Click to expand...

Tim, I don't like it either and I'm becoming quite confident they can't cover it. Being a fan, you probably know they have a knack for winning games they are supposed to lose and losing games they are supposed to win. One thing it seems they RARELY do is blow out the opposition. I'd be pressed to remember any game in which they ran the score up. One game last year was won by more than 20, 2006=no games won by more than 20, 2005=two games won by 20 or more.

This team, this year, doesn't appear poised to run it up. I think the linesmakers threw them a bone after their performance last week. Even if they do jump out to a large lead, chances are they would lean back and allow a score or two before the game ends. This line would require consideration if it was at 14. At 21.5, I consider it a gift.

I'm already on it for 250, and may consider throwing an extra nickle or dime. I expect them to win, but this spread is just off. Feel free to talk me off the ledge.:seeya:


Got lots of respect for you Tim. I've read your posts on a regular basis and I like your style. :tiphat:

Plus I grew up in MD (College Park, Laurel, Columbia) and am currently doing my PsyD internship at a hosp in PA. Almost ended up at Springfield Hosp in Sykesville.

anyway, best of luck to you this weekend and I'm already on that LSU under with you.
 
DJ - Thanks for your post, and I think you're inclinations are correct here. Always tough for me to bet against my squad, but that's what I would do here. Too many, off a big win and conference play on deck. They try to get a solid win here and try not to show too much. Also missing D. Scott tomorrow will not help. I see a conservative game plan, grind out a win and move on to conf. play.
 
Hey Tim don't post much but in regards to your LSU/Auburn under play this is a big play for me also. I'm a huge LSU backer and I do believe this game will stay under. LSU will run Charles Scott, Keiland Willamns and Richard Murphy to they fall. Lsu's inexperience at the QB spot will force Miles to keep the clock and chains moving via the ground. This game in my opinion can go either way and I look for a score of 17-13 type of game. Good luck to you and the rest of your plays. Thanks for all your input, it's greatly appreciated.
 
Hey Petelapot thanks for your input on your squad, greatly appreciated and glad you agree on that under. I'm really looking forward to watching that game and hope Auburn continues to look poor on offense. I frankly just don't think they will be able to do much.
 
Thanks Mags, hope you have a big day.

Iowa Pick 1.1/1 - I like the coaching matchup here with Ferentz against the mustache. Iowa very solid on the LOS on both sides of the ball should be able to win this one in the trenches. Hawkeyes haven't proven that they throw the ball that well but think their D and running game will be enough to get the win here.
 
Bad news, Timmy, I'm on LSU. I think us being on the same side is trouble, the world seems to be in a little more harmony when we are fading each other. :36_11_6:

GL today :cheers:
 
Thanks D, Tee and JG - couldn't resist that little rhyme lol...hope you guys have a great day. JG lol...let's see if we can bring one home today that we're on the same side on.
 
3 Team Tease Ala -1/2, Akron Even, EMich +30.5 1.65/1.5<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
 
Eastern Mich. :cheers:

You won't even need those 30.5 points. :smiley_acbe::cheers::tiphat:

GL today Tim.
 
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