NCAA Foots Week 5

[nropp11]

3* 1-3, -6.90<O</O
2* 6-2, +8.60<O</O
1* 6-4, +1.70<O</O
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13-9, +3.40
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Juiced out last week. First some notes for this week before I get to the games:
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Temple losing DiMichele is a huge blow, and they’re favored here if he isn’t out. The whole Syracuse/Robinson situation is tough to tell how it shapes up. Either they play w/ emotion, or they fold. Think it’s a big letdown week for Central Michigan. Just reading some of the players quotes on the Purdue game, they wanted it really bad and they were extremely happy w/ keeping it close. Akron has allowed the opponent to convert 30 times in the last 48 tries on third down. Houston has had to adjust w/ the hurricane and has not been on a set schedule in a few weeks. Clemson playing at 11am’s scare the piss outta me. Bowling Green’s had an extra week to prepare. TCU’s got a chance at an outright, but toooo many things have to go perfect. I’m very interested in how Ball State approaches this game. Tomey re-visits Hawaii. Arkansas State’s offense is 50x better than Memphis’. I think Toledo is in letdown mode, and I still don’t think they have a chance in the MAC, and I’m still not impressed.

 

[nropp11]

Onto probably the biggest card I’ve ever taken, including some ML dogs, and a rare total.ffice

Thursday
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3* SMU +18<O</O
1* SMU ML +740<O</O
I’m not buying Tulane. I thought SMU was better coming into the season, primarily b/c of Willis at the helm, but that’s a different story for a different day. Speaking of, Willis is in the lineup tonight. Not at QB, but June has inserted him at the WR slot. If I know June like I do, he won’t just be catching balls. Not even looking at the defensive side of things, SMU has played TCU, Texas Tech, Rice, and Texas State. Three of those have better offenses than Tulane. The thing w/ playing the likes of TCU, Texas Tech and Rice, is that they’ll keep your defense on the field for prolonged periods of time. I’m not worried about Tulane doing that tonight, thus, a fresher and better defensive scheme. Tulane held Bama to 20, in game 1 of a new offensive format, and held ECU to 28. Impressive, sort of. But not really. If Tulane is the team who plays Tech and Rice before this game, then I’d hold off. But having played a slow down type of style basically all season, I don’t see a single reason why this team would be favored by 18 over the worst team in the Nation. Tulane’s biggest success is coming at the QB, and that is taken away when you’re throwing from the shotgun just about every down. SMU hasn’t won on the road in some time. In fact, it was 2006….at Tulane. I’ll take my chances.
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Friday
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1* Uconn +3.5<O</O
I got nothing here. I had Uconn at #3 in the Big East w/ Louisville coming in at #6. Uconn’s defense is 10x better than what the nation saw from Kansas State the other night. Fading the Public darling who impressed last time out.
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Saturday
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3* Illinois +15<O</O
1* Illinois ML +520<O</O
I-L-L. Seriously, I don’t get it. You’re telling me that Oregon State at +16.5 is similar of a team to Illinois at +15 in a Big 10 conference opener? I feel really public here, too. Yet, the betting world is pounding this line up. I saw this line come out Monday and shit myself. Sure, Penn State has pretty much drilled just about every team they’ve played this year which equates to a #97 strength of schedule. In other news, Illinois has at least played Mizzou in a hostile environment. I had the chance to attend the Illinois/ULL game a few weeks back, and saw a game that I knew just wasn’t right. ULL hung in there, Juice ran the ball only when he needed to (3 rushes in 4Q), and Illinois didn’t show a damn thing. Juice will run heavily in this game. Whether he goes anywhere will be determined by the Penn State defense, but let’s be serious, Penn State’s new offense has worked against some pretty weak teams. They haven’t had the opportunity to go up against a defense like Illinois. The Illini have also gotten some key players back who missed the first couple games and suited up last game. Non-homeristic capping has Illinois as the #2 team in the Big 10 going into the season w/ Penn State at #5. Call me a homer, but this line makes little to zero sense. Illinois has essentially had three weeks of preparation for this one and Zooker hasn’t been blown out w/ his own recruits.

 

[nropp11]

2* Eastern Michigan +6.5<O</O
1* Eastern Michigan ML +220<O</O
Winning on the road in the MAC is tough. Going into a stadium w/ a packed house on homecoming with a new QB and playing on the road is tough. EMU has the better offensive skill players at just about every position. Just b/c Northern hangs on the road w/ Big 10 cellar Minnesota means that they’re justifiable to being a favorite here? The game on the road at WMU they should have lost by more than what they did as well. The offense looks good at times, sputters at others. In a game lined at 57, gimme the team who’s won their last 3 homecoming games against better competition than what comes in on Saturday. And I’ll look for the outright as well.<O</O
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2* Arkansas State/Memphis Over 56<O</O
Not sure why this game isn’t lined at 70. Arkansas State’s offense is just as good as Memphis. A lot of passes, a lot of stopped clockage, this one could be close to 56 by halftime, unless I’m missing something. I capped it at 68.
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2* UL Lafayette +21<O</O
Back to the Illinois/ULL game. I had the opportunity to watch an entirely different ULL team from year’s past. This team’s offense is by far one of the most confusing offenses I have ever personally watched. Have you ever played NCAA Football on PS3 where you can choose an option pass? That’s the only way they throw the ball. You stack 8 in the box against the option and you’re burnt toast. They’re pretty balanced as far as rush and pass, and from watching Kansas State’s lackluster defense last week against Louisville, I’m not sure they’re smart enough to even defend this. ULL’s defense is a bunch of beasts as well. Kansas State welcomes Texas Tech this next week. Can you say lookahead after the beating they took last week on national TV? I wouldn’t have even played this had I not seen how jacked ULL was to play at Illinois when they came out of the tunnel. They’re a smart club, the coaches know what they’re doing, and I’ll take my chances w/ three touchdowns.
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1* New Mexico State +3.5<O</O
Gut tells me NMST outscores it’s counterpart, who’s starting a new QB this week. Home doggy<O</O
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1* Northwestern +8.5<O</O
Sutton’s numbers are more impressive against Iowa than any other team he has faced. I’m playing an angle here of Iowa coming off a tough loss, finally naming a starting QB who hasn’t really been all that impressive, starting his first Big 10 game. Northwestern had this game in the bag last year until Iowa opened it up and threw about every pass. This year, I think Iowa starts out throwing first having watched last year’s film, and I’ll take my chances on a new QB in a new setting. Also noting, Iowa just finally named a starting K and a starting TE, who can’t block worth a piss-ant. They’re throwing the ball and hope the kicking game fails.<O</O
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1* Virginia +7<O</O
Have beat Duke 7 straight times and are undervalued having played the #3 toughest schedule in the Nation. A touchdown is too much.
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.5*Notre Dame ML –120<O</O
Purdue hasn’t won at Notre Dame since 1974. That’s worth half a unit.<O</O
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Prepare for a massacre.<O</O
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GL

 

[RambleOn]

I'm not gonna lie, those smilies are annoying as fuck. BOL

 

[horses]

Non-homeristic capping has Illinois as the #2 team in the Big 10 going into the season w/ Penn State at #5.

Wow...

 

[nropp11]

Non-homeristic capping has Illinois as the #2 team in the Big 10 going into the season w/ Penn State at #5.

Wow...

Away games are Wisconsin, Penn State, and Northwestern.

What have you seen thus far that doesn't put them at #2?

 

[horses]

their schedule doesn't interest me when it comes to power ratings...

What have you seen thus far that doesn't put them at #2?

What have you seen that does? They're a weaker team than last year and they weren't even 2nd best by my pwr ratings last year. Penn St outgained and essentially outplayed Illinois in Champagne LY, but lost...PSU is better this year and Illinois is worse...and the venue has flipped.

Your comment about ULL having beasts on the DL is pretty funny...they have the worst DL in the SBC outside of North Texas.

 

[nropp11]

their schedule doesn't interest me when it comes to power ratings...

What have you seen thus far that doesn't put them at #2?

What have you seen that does? They're a weaker team than last year and they weren't even 2nd best by my pwr ratings last year. Penn St outgained and essentially outplayed Illinois in Champagne LY, but lost...PSU is better this year and Illinois is worse...and the venue has flipped.

Your comment about ULL having beasts on the DL is pretty funny...they have the worst DL in the SBC outside of North Texas.

what does power rankings have to do w/ finishing 2nd?

if illinois plays @ ohio state, at penn state, at iowa, at michigan state and at wisconsin, then they have no chance.

i didn't say anything about the DL either.

Penn State is automatically better this year having played 4 of the worst teams in college football w/ a new QB and a new offense?

Go Dolphins. At least we agree on 1 thing.

 

[M.W.]

Back to the Illinois/ULL game. I had the opportunity to watch an entirely different ULL team from year’s past.

In other words, you need to parlay ULL & ILL because it's a correlated parlay. Seriously, if your take is correct, they'll probably both hit. If not, they'll probably both lose.

 

[jgiun1]

I'm not gonna lie, those smilies are annoying as fuck. BOL

FUNNY AS HELL MY MAN

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

2* Eastern Michigan +6.5<O</O
1* Eastern Michigan ML +220<O</O
Winning on the road in the MAC is tough. Going into a stadium w/ a packed house on homecoming with a new QB and playing on the road is tough. EMU has the better offensive skill players at just about every position. Just b/c Northern hangs on the road w/ Big 10 cellar Minnesota means that they’re justifiable to being a favorite here? The game on the road at WMU they should have lost by more than what they did as well. The offense looks good at times, sputters at others. In a game lined at 57, gimme the team who’s won their last 3 homecoming games against better competition than what comes in on Saturday. And I’ll look for the outright as well.<O</O
<O</O

2* Arkansas State/Memphis Over 56<O</O
Not sure why this game isn’t lined at 70. Arkansas State’s offense is just as good as Memphis. A lot of passes, a lot of stopped clockage, this one could be close to 56 by halftime, unless I’m missing something. I capped it at 68.
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2* UL Lafayette +21<O</O
Back to the Illinois/ULL game. I had the opportunity to watch an entirely different ULL team from year’s past. This team’s offense is by far one of the most confusing offenses I have ever personally watched. Have you ever played NCAA Football on PS3 where you can choose an option pass? That’s the only way they throw the ball. You stack 8 in the box against the option and you’re burnt toast. They’re pretty balanced as far as rush and pass, and from watching Kansas State’s lackluster defense last week against Louisville, I’m not sure they’re smart enough to even defend this. ULL’s defense is a bunch of beasts as well. Kansas State welcomes Texas Tech this next week. Can you say lookahead after the beating they took last week on national TV? I wouldn’t have even played this had I not seen how jacked ULL was to play at Illinois when they came out of the tunnel. They’re a smart club, the coaches know what they’re doing, and I’ll take my chances w/ three touchdowns.
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1* New Mexico State +3.5<O</O
Gut tells me NMST outscores it’s counterpart, who’s starting a new QB this week. Home doggy<O</O
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1* Northwestern +8.5<O</O
Sutton’s numbers are more impressive against Iowa than any other team he has faced. I’m playing an angle here of Iowa coming off a tough loss, finally naming a starting QB who hasn’t really been all that impressive, starting his first Big 10 game. Northwestern had this game in the bag last year until Iowa opened it up and threw about every pass. This year, I think Iowa starts out throwing first having watched last year’s film, and I’ll take my chances on a new QB in a new setting. Also noting, Iowa just finally named a starting K and a starting TE, who can’t block worth a piss-ant. They’re throwing the ball and hope the kicking game fails.<O</O
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1* Virginia +7<O</O
Have beat Duke 7 straight times and are undervalued having played the #3 toughest schedule in the Nation. A touchdown is too much.
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.5*Notre Dame ML –120<O</O
Purdue hasn’t won at Notre Dame since 1974. That’s worth half a unit.<O</O
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Prepare for a massacre.<O</O
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GL

Glad im not the only one who has this highly rated..also w/ you on Ill and NMST but like Duke alot ..GL w/ the card.

 

[HUNT]

great write ups bro..gl this week...u make a convincing case for illini, and it is a LOT of points for a team that doesn't historically blow other B10 teams out.

 

[horses]

i guess we'll just say we agree to disagree...

you say non-homeristic capping puts Illinois 2nd...I guess I'm just wondering how you came up with this? By glancing at the 2007 standings? Power ratings mean everything to me when ranking teams and setting spreads...:shake:

 

[HereWeGo]

GL this week nropp

 

[nawlins51]

GL buddy.Leaning EMU also.

 

[Blue_Chip]

health on tulane and uva ... gl on the rest

 

[nropp11]

i guess we'll just say we agree to disagree...

you say non-homeristic capping puts Illinois 2nd...I guess I'm just wondering how you came up with this? By glancing at the 2007 standings? Power ratings mean everything to me when ranking teams and setting spreads...:shake:

the #'s i post aren't my power ratings, i rank the conferences how i think they'll finish during the season. The rankings come prior to the season as I do the off-season studying. On a weekly basis, i search for other angles, injuries, and weather.

That way, when i open up the web on monday to view the spreads, when i look at them, the spread has no bearing on what happened last week, the week before, or to similar opponents. I look at the spread from a seasonal standpoint, not week to week. It just gives me personally a better feeling on the standpoint of the game w/o looking at what has happened previous weeks. Sure, i'll take into account and injury or weather or certain factors, but i don't want that to be the determining factor. I just feel it's a better way of averaging things out. Some teams have really good weeks, some teams have really bad. The consistent teams you can bank on.

Sample time:

LSU my #1 last week vs. Auburn my #2. Auburn is probably less of a favorite this week, than if they had won. If they win, they're probably -9 or -10 here in this spot. I don't look at what happened last week. I follow the value that over the course of the year, my pre-season rankings are going to hold true, and I'm going to look for spots that I can play the points w/ the better ranked team, so throughout the year, I'll still have LSU at 1, regardless of a shady loss here or there.

Granted, i'm way off on a few conferences a year, but a) it gets rid of public perception, and b) it gets rid of fluke wins/fluke losses and c) looks at the big conference picture.

 

[counselor]

Just b/c Northern hangs on the road w/ Big 10 cellar Minnesota...

You'll eat those words yet, prick...

 

[happy928]

 

[TopDaddy]

GL this week, you could be up for a long time after this week. And if I'm not mistaken, I'm pretty sure that Purdue beat Notre Dame in South Bend in 2004.

 

[broadwayjoe]

with ya on ill and nmst, against ya on nd and uconn; gl neil. would prob lean with all of your other plays...solid reasoning as usual.

i don't really get how these teams are THAT different either. sure, morelli is addition by subraction, but i don't expect juice to have as bad of an outing throwing the ball as he did last year. ill not as strong defensively, but i think they have a more talented group than last year that has a couple of weaknesses that experience can cure (namely safety) and will continue to get better. everyone talks about what a huge loss leman was as a four year starter, and while i see why because of his heart/leadership i kind of disagree...don't think they're losing a whole lot talent-wise...he was talented but before the zook recruits were surrounding him the defense he was on was dreadful. miller and wilson are very solid imo. a lot different type of game for the less experienced qb against a tough experienced dline that should get pressure, and nothing leads me to believe illinois won't win the rushing battle again, and benn won't have opportunities in special teams again. i thought for sure this line would be around 8.5 being that illinois has performed well ats on the road. i like the way they match up, and i like the bye to prepare...think ill wins su (but no such luck against the bucks, neil haha)

 

[GmoNavarro]

GL Neil !!! With you on Ill I was impressed when I saw that line come up too !!! Leaning on Eastern Michigan too !!!

 

[CapTwo]

GL this weekend Nropp....

fuck those pink smilies-
and glad to see you turning it around after a couple bad beats early

 

[RetroVK]

well done with smu and cant argue with the illini bet either.