NCAA Football Week4

Marcus000

Marcus000

Fondy's bitch
2007 NCAA Football Record: 18-15

I'm just gonna start doing weekly threads instead of daily ones.

Thursday Night Game:

Miami -2 vs Texas A&M

Just a gutplay here really. Both teams have questions around them and I have questions about A&M's rush defense as in their last game against Monroe they gave up 215 on the ground and 23 first downs. I know they beat the hell out of Monroe but if Monroe actually had a QB worth a damn it could have been a lot closer. For Miami to be successful in this game they will need to have success on the ground and I think they have a good shot at that. Kyle Wright isn't great but is still better then Freeman. He will make mistakes of course but overall I think he gives Miami a better shot passing wise. A&M of course lives by their ground attack and has done very well with it all year. I'm still on the fence about Miami's rush defense but think they are better then they showed last weekend against FIU by giving up 159.

Like I said this is a gutplay, but gonna make the try on Miami at home in a nationally televised game. This is their game right now to come out and show the program might be under transition but the program still has life in it.
 
thx guys, looking good so far.

Adding:

Miami TT over 10 points 2nd Half

Worth the shot. They have showed they can drive on TAMU and hell TAMU might give turn it over a bunch more times the way its going lol
 
Well funny story. One of the thing that happens as you gamble as known is sometimes you select the wrong bet without even thinking about it. I listed my bet as Miami TT over 10 2nd half which is what I was playing. And here my dumbass screwed that up and bet on this:

1. Football - Texas A&M - team total Over 11 (-115)
for the 2nd half held on Sep 20 at 6:45pm [pending]

And I sucked out on the prayer pass thrown up by Johnson. I didn't even realize this shit till after TAMU scored that TD with like 6 or so min left in the 4th. I looked at my review wager sheet and saw an "11" and went wtf.. then saw I bet the wrong TT over. Still gonna use the Miami TT one as I posted that and that was the actual play I wanted to bet.

1-0-1 on the night

2007 NCAA Football Record: 19-15-1
 
Friday Night Game:

Oklahoma/Tulsa over 66

I saw this at 67.5 last night and decided I'd see if it went down during the day before making a play and sure enough its now down to 66. Instead of trying to see if it goes down more just gonna hit it up now. As I said in my thread from last Saturday about the BYU-Tulsa game, I will be playing a lot of Tulsa overs this year. 2 reasons for this, their defense is pretty mediocre as showed by BYU almost getting 700 yards against them, and the 2nd reason is their style of offense in the continual hurry up. Tulsa's objective on offense is to try and get a play off before 5 seconds come off the play clock.

Because of Tulsa defense I think Oklahoma can keep their streak of great scoring games alive for them. Tulsa finally played a decent QB in Hall last weekend and showed how vulnerable their secondary is, plus add that to a rush defense that has not played well at all either. Bradford should easily have another great game in this one, and Oklahoma's rushing attack of Murray, Patrick, and Brown should be able to put up good numbers as well on this Tulsa rush defense.

With all that said now its time to put Tulsa on putting up points for the over to hit. Paul Smith iwill be responsible for this as I can't see Tulsa getting anything going on the ground on a very tough Oklahoma run D. Smith is a good QB and this will be his nationally televised game to try and sell himself to the NFL level. Not saying he will have a great game but I think he can lead a few drives for Tulsa and they can put up a few scores. Plus if Oklahoma builds up a big lead as expected, he can get some junktime time TD's in. Either way, whether it be a TD drive or a 3 and out for Tulsa they won't be using a lot of clock which will lengthen the game for Oklahoma to have a few more drives then usual.

Think this one gets into the 70's and should be a fun game to watch tonight.
 
Ride the Tulsa over train.. choo choo ride it....

Sweep for Friday night cashing all 3 over plays.

2007 NCAA Football Record: 22-15-1
 
thx bro.

Saturday Games:

I do Saturday games in blocks of 3 hours. Makes it easier for me and tries to cut down on too many plays. Like for instance in the first 3 hour block I have 5 potential plays which I need to cut down to 2-3. So far here are my leans for the early set of games from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m.:

Indiana ML +125
North Carolina +13
Louisville TT over 48.5
Kent State -2
Boston College TT over 37

Right now of course the smallest lean of the list for me is the North Carolina +13. To me its a play that Yates will be able to keep the game respectable for NC. My 2 biggest leans is the Indiana ML and Kent State -2 with the 2 medium leans both the TT's.
 
Marcus000 said:
thx bro.

Saturday Games:

I do Saturday games in blocks of 3 hours. Makes it easier for me and tries to cut down on too many plays. Like for instance in the first 3 hour block I have 5 potential plays which I need to cut down to 2-3. So far here are my leans for the early set of games from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m.:

Indiana ML +125
North Carolina +13
Louisville TT over 48.5
Kent State -2
Boston College TT over 37

Right now of course the smallest lean of the list for me is the North Carolina +13. To me its a play that Yates will be able to keep the game respectable for NC. My 2 biggest leans is the Indiana ML and Kent State -2 with the 2 medium leans both the TT's.
Click to expand...
Out of those...UL Team total and IU IMO
 
Adding:

Indiana ML +120 vs Illinois

This game should be a pickem if anything. You have 2 very similar teams here offensively and defensively. Both have been great rushing teams and both have been great defensively stopping the rush. The advantage (other then home field) I give to the Hoosiers tho is at the QB position. Both teams have dual threat QB's that can throw the ball or tuck it and run, but I rate Kellen Lewis a lot better of a threat through the air then Juice. Also of note Mendenhall (Illinois RB) will start but is nursing a sore ankle, so who knows if that will effect him any in the game. This should be a fun game to watch so naturally this is why it won't be on ESPN or ESPN2. Hoosiers at home with better QB and having beat Illinois the last 2 years.. I'll take the ML.
 
Kent State -2 at Akron

Both these teams defensively are nothing to really write home about, but offensively is where they both drastically differ. Akron has been pretty bad this year on the offensive end. They are still trying to figure out which QB to actually stick with for an entire game as both Carlton Jackson and Chris Jacquemain have been both getting snaps in games so far. For this game tho after reading coach Brookhart's press conference quotes Jackson will start for the first time while Jacquemain will come in during the 2nd quarter for some snaps. So it should be interesting to see how Jackson does getting the start.

For Kent State tho there is no QB shuffling as Edelman is the main man. He is a dual threat QB that can look very good sometimes and look very horrible others. In the backfield Kent State has Eugene Jarvis who is having a breakout season so far as he has rushed for over 100 yds in all 3 games so far. Edelman last year at home against Akron was able to torch the Zips for 305 through the air and 2 TD's. Now I'm not saying he will even come close to that in this game but least you know he has the ability, and with a surging Jarvis in the backfield I think it will be too much for Akron to handle.
 
thx bro gl to you also.

Louisville TT over 48.5

Not much really to write about this one. Louisville coming out at home after a tough loss against Kentucky. Now they know they will have to make a great showing in the Big East to have a chance for a good bowl game this year. And what a better way to start that out in the Big East then playing a horrible Syracuse team. This is Louisville's chance to come out after the loss and make a statement by kicking the living ass out of Syracuse. Now I don't know what kind of statement that would make anyways, but least it would be good for their morale heading into the tougher part of the Big East schedule. I can see Louisville putting up 50+ in this one in front of the home crowd.
 
Staying off the other 2 (North Carolina +13 and Boston College TT over 37). NC is more of a gutplay then anything, just have a feeling they can keep it closer then 2 TD's And its really hard to make out if the Auburn "upset" shows South Florida really are this good of a team or just the fact that Auburn really is as shitty as they have looked. And since Boston College is 37 for TT and the game total is at 45.5 it does make it me uneasy that the linesmakers would have only a 8.5 different between a TT and a game total lol I do still think Ryan will go off in this game and they have a shot to go over it, but not enough of a thought to play it.
 
I like that team total on Louisville rather then taking the line. That way you don't have to worry about their sorry ass defense. Good luck.
 
thx cogen, gl to you too bro


Adding:

Penn State -2.5 at Michigan

I just find its gonna be a rough day for Mallet as I see Penn State employing the same gameplan they did against Notre Dame and Claussen and just pressure, pressure, pressure. This will mean Mike Hart will have to carry the bulk and pretty much carry this team to a victory which while I think Hart is a good RB I just don't see him being able to do it.


Texas Tech TT over 39.5

Okie State's secondary got exposed yet again with their loss to Troy and I think it will get exposed even more with Harrell. 6 TD's for Texas Tech imo is very doable even if its at Okie State.


Baylor TT over 28

We have a pass happy team in Baylor and Szymanski and only being asked to put up more then 4 TD's against a lame Buffalo team who has struggled against the pass when facing a decent caliber QB? I'll bite.
 
Man I've sucked the last 2 weeks in the early set of games. I actually liked my 3 plays really well too. Oh well.

Adding:

Texas Tech/Okie State over 37 2nd Half

Both teams are driving at will on one another and pretty much setting the definition of a shootout. Harrell is having his way with the Okie State secondary and Okie State is getting big play runs and open recivers as well. Fun game to watch and would not be suprised to see over 110 points put up in this one.
 
4 final plays on the later games:

Alabama -3 vs Georgia
Washington State TT over 19.5
Washington TT over 21
Oregon TT over 38

Gonna be heading out to the casino in a few so will wish everyone goodluck tonight.
 
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