***WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 3RD PLAY***
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -3.5
So I was diving into this matchup, and there are a few things that stand out to me about these teams. Middle Tenn is 1-4 SU and ATS and are favored over Jax State who is 4-1 SU ATS. Why would this be? This alone should be concerning, but a few points to make:
MTSU was even with CSU through 50 minutes, outgained the Rams, out first downed them, but gave up a fumble return TD late and was stopped on downs twice at the CSU 30 yard line going in to score. Against WKU MTSU passed the ball fairly well, was only outgained by 70 yards and the first downs and TOP were close. again, they lost the turnover battle 3-1. On MTSU first play of the game they went 75 yards for an explosive TD pass that was called back due to offsetting penalties, and didnt count. They blasted Murray State at home (ok, somewhat struggled with them for a half) and competed well at missouri. This team is 1-4 on the season and need the wins to pile up fast in order to make a bowl game. The last two seasons they have started ice cold (2-4) and have rallied to make a bowl game, so this type of scenario is not uncharted for the blue raiders.
Jax State on the other hand is seemingly red hot at 4-1 SU and ATS, and off a thrilling victory at SHSU, but diving in further, they really had no business winning, covering, or even being in that game late. SHSU dominated the stats, TOP, and had a 99% win expectancy with 1 minute to go in the game. SHSU mis managed the clock and threw an incomplete pass on 2nd down at the goal line before punching it in on 4th down, but left 1 minute on the clock instead of about 17 seconds...this time left allowed jax (to their credit) to drive down the field, down 8, get the TD, tie it on the 2 pt try, and win in OT, miraculously.
Jax State also Smashed EMU in a non conference bout that EMU seemingly was disinterested in playing, struggled MIGHTILY with UTEP (we have seen what they are up to) and lost on the road at coastal carolina (who has NO DUDES other than Grayson McCall). J state was down 30-9 on the road at one point in that game.
The sam houston game was telling, as a team who had 408 yards, 13 points, and 24 first downs IN THREE GAMES thusfar, was able to move the ball and gain explosive plays at will through the air with a QB who had completed 8 passes all season before that game. SHSU was also able to lean on the jax d line, who was gassed and wearing down. If you go back and watch, there was no resistance provided by Jax State seemingly all night, until they forced some Turnovers while SHSU was driving.
I went back and checked relevent stats regarding MTSU and how they perform AFTER the "100 miles of hate" rivalry (big game for them, you would think let down spot afterwords when getting blasted by their rival), but... it has been anything but that, going 4-0 SU ATS the last 5 years (2019 they ended the season at WKU so I omitted that game, as they didnt play again until the following year).
2018: @ UTEP -13 W 48-32
2020: @ FIU +6 W 31-28
2021: FIU at home -10 W 50-10
2022: @ UTEP -2 W 24-13
their coaching staff is long term, so it tells me their prep after WKU is solid, and this seems to be a "buy low, sell high" spot on each of these teams, and you are seemingly getting a telling line with the vegas oddsman making MTSU the fave, despite the records and W/L columns.
I was researching this game trying to find a reason to back J-State as a dog here but with them still having the FCS allotment of scholarships and depth being an issue, this could be the point in the season where they start to wear down, looks like maybe the books have seen enough to think that could happen this week.
Right or wrong, Im playing the Blue Raiders to get a much needed win in a DESPERATE spot here.
35-28 Raiders.
