NCAA FB Week 3

[steponaduck]

Week 3:

Miami Oh +17

Boston College +29

Duke -19

New Mexico -1.5

BYU +8.5

Syracuse -2

South Alabama +8

SUNJ- Rutgers -4

WVU ML -103





FCS Games Ill be looking to play:

Northern Colorado +49.5

North Dakota +22.5

Temple -28

-Wofford (FCS vs FCS)

-Idaho St + UNI over (FCS vs FCS)


WEEK 2:



7-13...DISASTER...0-5 in totals...never been done before by me. FAU, up 10-0. 5 total first downs in the 2nd half. cannot move the ball...CMU up 14 with 5 minutes left...double back door. just a fucking disaster weekend...

Eastern Michigan +21

Syracuse -20

UTSA + Texas State over 62 never had a chance no pace and UTSA Slowed this thing way down after F. Harris was hurt...line closed at 66.5

Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5 17 points the first three drives and the suprising thing to me was how little success ole miss had in this contest against tulane D. line closed at 66.5

Air Force -13.5 -120 sam hou 2-0 ATS with 300 total offensive yards this season and 3 points...AF had very little success running the ball.

UTEP ML fugg me...awful bet. awful team.

App State +19 -113 Loot...wire to wire cover

*FAU -4.5 2 unit play

California +7 crime they didnt win. squandered every chance in the redzone they had...hope Ott is not out long.

North Texas -11 -118 awful defense...wasnt suprised they were scoring...but was shocked that UNT could not stop FIU...like, no resistance whatsoever against an offense that finished a game with 4 pass yards and played an FCS team and had 6 rushing yards. and moved the ball for 591 against the mean grean defense.

Virginia +7.5 -112

Arkansas State + Memphis over 58.5 -104 arksansas State pathetic performance once again. memphis no pace...no up tempo game like in years past

Michigan + UNLV over 56 michigan just no desire to pour it on here. line closed at O/U 59.5. didnt matter.

Georgia Southern -6 -130

UCONN Moneyline +133 .5u holy cow, horrific performance by UCONN...awful.

Southern Miss +31.5 -113 .5u bad...and FSU running onside kicks up 21-3 said everything...just a bad look.

VT + Purdue over 45 -114 .5u 7 hour weather delay...17-17 at half...one fucking score the rest of the way

KU ML -152. .7u

*FCS PLAY: NEVADA -6 +227 .44U TO WIN 1U took a tiny shot...ended up being a turd

*FCS PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7 up 42-28 with 5 minutes left...blew it... bad pass D







25-25 YTD...

Futures Portfolio Update





From way back in the summer when posted

RSW:

* western Michigan under 4.5 -200

1-1 +29 again this week. loss loading

*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120

1-1 close win against UNH...blowout loss expected next

*North Texas under 6.5 -120.

0-2 and no wins in sight. this team is in trouble

*East Carolina under 5.5 -150

*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG

0-2 @ Appy state next. hard to see them pulling the upset.

*South Alabama under 8-130.

1-1 with oklahoma state road trip this weekend. huge game for them, and for this RSW play

*MTSU under 6.5 +100

0-2 as expected but last week game was closer than expected. likely win against FCS bottom feeder next

*San Jose St under 5.5 +120

1-2 at toledo tough long road trip for the Spartans.

*Minnesota under 7.5 -160

2-0 interesting spot at UNC next. RSW could ride on this game.

*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG

1-2 team looks lost. fucking disaster and no offensive punch.

*Indiana under 3.5 +140

1-1 Neutral sight louisville game on deck. they do look tougher

*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150

2-1

*Cal over 4.5 -152

1-1 should be 2-0 as they outplayed auburn in every way but squandered 5 2nd half possessions ending in the RZ with 0 points. FCS idaho next

*BYU under 5.5 +113

2-0, at arkansas next before B12 play commences.





1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA. team looks awful on offense. they have to get better at some point right?

1u UTSA +360 to win AAC hope F. Harris is not hurt badly, they will need him.

1u FAU +950 to win AAC could not move the ball against ohio...scarry to think about that.

1u EMU +790 to win MAC they can really pack it in on defense. amazing performance showing their intestinal fortitude against minnesota

1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC hard to think this team has anything to be excited about this year...

1.75u Washington +400 win P12 lights out offense gonna be tough out in the P12



longshots to win their respective conference title



.33u navy 45/1 likely donation middies are really bad

.125u cal 80/1 they are going to be a problem for a lot of foes

.416u NIU 22/1 + .33u 29/1 (local casino) great team win against BC then lose to FCS...perfect MAC team.

.125u Texas State 80/1 looks good now down to 10/1

 

[steponaduck]

very humbling weekend for me...looking forward to really locking in and focusing on winning plays going forward.

 

[satnightfever05]

Talk to me about Cuse.. with the money pouring in on the Orange and the line shrinking, makes me think its Boilers or nothing

Good line on Rutgers- but still unclear if they should be laying pts against any power 5 team, even if VT isn't that good.. weird game last week, but held their own after disaster q1 vs Purdue and think Purdue better than Rutgers (even though transitive property isn't a thing).

 

[steponaduck]

Talk to me about Cuse.. with the money pouring in on the Orange and the line shrinking, makes me think its Boilers or nothing

Good line on Rutgers- but still unclear if they should be laying pts against any power 5 team, even if VT isn't that good.. weird game last week, but held their own after disaster q1 vs Purdue and think Purdue better than Rutgers (even though transitive property isn't a thing).

Brother. Is the line shrinking though. It opened in LV Purdue -2.5. I have seen the cuse pound two bad teams into the ground as they should but now they take it on the road. Going to be a test but I think Syracuse is really good. On both sides. Finally running the offense that Dino wants to run.

Same with Rutgers. VT is bad man. And GW may or may not play for them, along with other injuries they have. They needed two 4th Q TDs to pull away from ODU, they then lose last week at home. Not impressed. Rutgers line has steamed but they play tough football for Greg schiano and frankly I really like it.

 

[jimmymo]

Northern Colorado +49.5

Embarrassed to admit I will actually be at this game in the Palouse....GL this week Duck

 

[B.A.R.]

Couple things here...

-Love the quick recaps of the action
-Hard work pays off, period
- Don't sweat bad weeks here. We don't pile on posters here like at other sites. Will a random pop up causing shit? Yes. They are dealt with quickly. The reason we started this joint in 2006 is we all had enough of the covers types.
-Relook the UTEP box. Yes, the offense sucks, but this score was not indicative of how the game went IMO. I'm not saying they should have won, but 24-21/28-20 was a truer score.
-A few horrible beats there (Purdue total, Cal, CMU)... those will even out ...
- That was not what I was expecting from a Mora led UConn
-Hard FAU myself, good lawd.

I'd expect a bounce back week.

*Love the weekly analysis on futures as well.

 

[satnightfever05]

Brother. Is the line shrinking though. It opened in LV Purdue -2.5. I have seen the cuse pound two bad teams into the ground as they should but now they take it on the road. Going to be a test but I think Syracuse is really good. On both sides. Finally running the offense that Dino wants to run.

Same with Rutgers. VT is bad man. And GW may or may not play for them, along with other injuries they have. They needed two 4th Q TDs to pull away from ODU, they then lose last week at home. Not impressed. Rutgers line has steamed but they play tough football for Greg schiano and frankly I really like it.

Just going by vsin has 87% on Cuse, covers has 68% on Cuse- but I guess if line moving, it's less relevant

 

[steponaduck]

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u
(Fri) Army +9
(Fri) Utah State +10

UMASS +8.5
Miami Oh +17
Boston College +29
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103


FCS Games I'll be looking to play:
North Dakota +22.5
Temple -28
Central Conn. St +28
**-Wofford
**-Idaho St + UNI over
**-Montana State -44
-Princeton -24
-Yale -2
-E. Illinois +11.5

 

[steponaduck]

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u last stand with navy. they looked marginally better against wagner but not much. Memphis also did not overly impress, struggling with arky state for some time before it became a laugher. why did they only have 389 yards of offense? 5/16 on third down? scored three TD's in 5 game minutes (one defensive, one a blown coverage) why would memphis not run the football on ark state? suprising here...if navy scores twice they can keep this within the number, but where is the NAVY toughness...i want to see some grit, some intestinal fortitude like we saw with eastern michigan last week. fire off the ball. gash on offense. be solid in the trenches. should be a fun game to watch...anchors aweigh.




(Fri) Army +9 Frank harris is in a walking boot and NOT practicing; large discrepency between him and the back up QB, who came in against texas state and did nothing special. Texas state was live in that game, and put a big time scare into UTSA. army has actually done very well in the series winning in 2019 and 2020 at utsa and competing in an OT thriller last year, losing at home in OT. teams know eachother well, but the handicap for me is that UTSA offense should not be able to stress army defense at all in this contest, without their mobile QB and skill position guys from years prior, how are they a threat to downfield pass, and without that, army can stack the box and plug run lanes. this game should be very low scoring just like the TSU/UTSA game last week after the F. Harris injury. Ill take 9 in this game which; from what I have seen this season with my eyeballs, army can actually win.


(Fri) Utah State +10 another series play here with USU kinda being the AF bugaboo, the last two matchups USU has won as underdogs. AF has snoozed throughthe first part of their schedule up to this point (if they havent sleepwalked, bad bad sign for them). AF has very little to be excited about so far on offense this season, I mean are you kidding me ONE explosive rush against SHSU (yes, fairly decent defense we know) but you are the AF acadamy, the best rushing attack in the country, and you have ONE explosive rush? bizarre. just dont forsee USU swiss cheese defense (or actually maybe its NOT...check the intestinal fortitude shown by USU after blinking and being down 14-0 against iowa on the road...shut the crappy hawkeyes out for back to back quarters!!!) just feel like this is too much for cooper legas and crew who are gaining confidence, have series history of being competitive on the field here, and have a great chance to win against an AF team that has not found their footing up to this point.

UMASS +8.5 - EMU great situational dog play showing great pride on the goalline saturday night...talk about a max effort play from that defensive front 7. but now they are back to being a home fave, where they have struggled, and they could not stop the dynamic offense howard runs, so why should they be able to stop/contain or limit umass in this game? umass off a drubbing at auburn and then was fairly competitive against miami oh in a game delayed 5 hours due to weather. but If im EMU, I am concerned about the max effort given and they STILL cannot get off the field on 3rd down. their defense has been out there so much, and in their first two games they are allowing 15/29 3rd down conversions, and have given up 500 rushing yards on 100 rush attempts in just two games. they have to be gassed physically. that is alot of physical plays and tackling in 2 games, and in a game where EMU would have to win by 2 scores, I am not sure their defense is going to be able to shut down the UMASS offense. they could, but I dont think they will necessarily.

Miami Oh +17- ok i will bite. rivalry game, miami oh spirited performance last game, cincy just waxed pitt...but maybe miami ohio found something offensively last week, and them mailing it in and waiving the white flag against Miami FL doesnt look so bad now after the drubbing miami FL just put on A&M. now the hawks come to the rivalry game with cincy, why cant they compete in this game and have a chance at the end? cincy has lost a ton, and what i have seen of them i am not exceptionally impressed with. was their win over pitt more good cincy, or bad phil jercovic? not certain either way, but I dont know that this game is a blowout. I would have made the line around 11...



Boston College +29 bc, red bandanna game. max effort, spirited play, in memory of welles crowther. pull up the google webs if you are unfamiliar with it. now...to the game. hurricane lee is going to make way around 8am eastern on satruday. wind up to 81 MPH is possible and likely. two Massachusetts buddies I have say it is going to be grotesque in the northeast. I hope the game is played, as scheduled. the weather and circumstances really help BC. the line was 29, and weather has seen the total come down to 47.5...line still shows 25.5-26.5. i think if the wind and rain are a factor, which they should be during a hurricane, bc can muddy the game up enought to remain competitive.

more thoughts coming later on these matchups.
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103

 

[EL CAPO]

only one i'm against you on is new mexico. i'm on the aggies

as someone who bet nmstu and umass last week..........they have a way of looking pretty good when they play each other then when they play another team from a weak conference they show what a power rating difference truly is. sucker bet teams - but i do like umass this week

New mexico state is so bad they didn't cover and barely made liberty punt and i thought they played well in the process........actually played hard on defense and still suck so bad.............all that to say that nmstu still passes the eye test for me and i think playing somone on their talent level will show it. They have a more dynamic offense then new mexico imo, Actually were up on liberty and really weren't stopped entire first half.

 

[KJ]

only one i'm against you on is new mexico. i'm on the aggies

as someone who bet nmstu and umass last week..........they have a way of looking pretty good when they play each other then when they play another team from a weak conference they show what a power rating difference truly is. sucker bet teams - but i do like umass this week

New mexico state is so bad they didn't cover and barely made liberty punt and i thought they played well in the process........actually played hard on defense and still suck so bad.............all that to say that nmstu still passes the eye test for me and i think playing somone on their talent level will show it. They have a more dynamic offense then new mexico imo, Actually were up on liberty and really weren't stopped entire first half.

Starting QB for UMass (not trying his name) was pretty impressive but it looks like they have to go with the backup on Saturday, makes sense if the starter isn't 100% because his legs are what made it work. That's the first positive thing I've ever taken away from one of their games.

 

[EL CAPO]

Starting QB for UMass (not trying his name) was pretty impressive but it looks like they have to go with the backup on Saturday, makes sense if the starter isn't 100% because his legs are what made it work. That's the first positive thing I've ever taken away from one of their games.

without the umass starter they are untouchable imo - the qb read zone makes their offense. They even had good yards per rush on auburn

 

[steponaduck]

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u
(Fri) Army +9
(Fri) Utah State +10

UMASS +8.5
Miami Oh +17
Boston College +29
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103
Wyoming +30.5
Northern Illinois +11.5

Round Robin Parlay (4s/5s/6s)
Missouri ML
Buffalo ML
UMASS ML
ECU ML
Charlotte ML
UNLV ML

7 Team RR above 6 + BYU ML


FCS Games I'll be looking to play:
North Dakota +22.5
Temple -28
Central Conn. St +28
**-Wofford
**-Idaho St + UNI over
**-Montana State -44
-Princeton -24
-Yale -2
-E. Illinois +11.5
-Monmouth/Campbell under
-New Hamp/Dartmouth under
-Yale/HC under
-Rhode Island/Maine under
-Bryant/Brown under

 

[steponaduck]

Week 3:
(Thur)- Navy +15 .6u
(Fri) Army +9
(Fri) Utah State +10

UMASS +8.5
Miami Oh +17
Boston College +29
Duke -19
New Mexico -1.5
BYU +8.5
Syracuse -2
South Alabama +8
Rutgers -4
West Virginia ML -103
Wyoming +30.5
Northern Illinois +11.5
Colorado state +24 -113

Parlays:
BC +29/under 56 2/1
BC +21.5/ under 56 4/1
BC +14.5/under 56 6/1
BC +8.5/under 56 +1021

Round Robin Parlay (4s/5s/6s)
Missouri ML
Buffalo ML
UMASS ML
ECU ML
Charlotte ML
UNLV ML

7 Team RR above 6 + BYU ML


FCS Games I'll be looking to play:
North Dakota +22.5
Idaho +17.5
Temple -28
Central Conn. St +28
**-Wofford
**-Idaho St + UNI over
**-Montana State -44
-Princeton -24
-Yale -2
-E. Illinois +11.5

weather related plays
-Monmouth/Campbell under
-New Hamp/Dartmouth under
-Yale/HC under
-Bryant/Brown under

 

[HUNT]

Week 3:

Miami Oh +17

Boston College +29

Duke -19

New Mexico -1.5

BYU +8.5

Syracuse -2

South Alabama +8

SUNJ- Rutgers -4

WVU ML -103





FCS Games Ill be looking to play:

Northern Colorado +49.5

North Dakota +22.5

Temple -28

-Wofford (FCS vs FCS)

-Idaho St + UNI over (FCS vs FCS)


WEEK 2:



7-13...DISASTER...0-5 in totals...never been done before by me. FAU, up 10-0. 5 total first downs in the 2nd half. cannot move the ball...CMU up 14 with 5 minutes left...double back door. just a fucking disaster weekend...

Eastern Michigan +21

Syracuse -20

UTSA + Texas State over 62 never had a chance no pace and UTSA Slowed this thing way down after F. Harris was hurt...line closed at 66.5

Tulane + Ole Miss over 61.5 17 points the first three drives and the suprising thing to me was how little success ole miss had in this contest against tulane D. line closed at 66.5

Air Force -13.5 -120 sam hou 2-0 ATS with 300 total offensive yards this season and 3 points...AF had very little success running the ball.

UTEP ML fugg me...awful bet. awful team.

App State +19 -113 Loot...wire to wire cover

*FAU -4.5 2 unit play

California +7 crime they didnt win. squandered every chance in the redzone they had...hope Ott is not out long.

North Texas -11 -118 awful defense...wasnt suprised they were scoring...but was shocked that UNT could not stop FIU...like, no resistance whatsoever against an offense that finished a game with 4 pass yards and played an FCS team and had 6 rushing yards. and moved the ball for 591 against the mean grean defense.

Virginia +7.5 -112

Arkansas State + Memphis over 58.5 -104 arksansas State pathetic performance once again. memphis no pace...no up tempo game like in years past

Michigan + UNLV over 56 michigan just no desire to pour it on here. line closed at O/U 59.5. didnt matter.

Georgia Southern -6 -130

UCONN Moneyline +133 .5u holy cow, horrific performance by UCONN...awful.

Southern Miss +31.5 -113 .5u bad...and FSU running onside kicks up 21-3 said everything...just a bad look.

VT + Purdue over 45 -114 .5u 7 hour weather delay...17-17 at half...one fucking score the rest of the way

KU ML -152. .7u

*FCS PLAY: NEVADA -6 +227 .44U TO WIN 1U took a tiny shot...ended up being a turd

*FCS PLAY: CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7 up 42-28 with 5 minutes left...blew it... bad pass D







25-25 YTD...

Futures Portfolio Update





From way back in the summer when posted

RSW:

* western Michigan under 4.5 -200

1-1 +29 again this week. loss loading

*Central Michigan under 5.5 -120

1-1 close win against UNH...blowout loss expected next

*North Texas under 6.5 -120.

0-2 and no wins in sight. this team is in trouble

*East Carolina under 5.5 -150

*East Carolina under 6.5 -190. BIG

0-2 @ Appy state next. hard to see them pulling the upset.

*South Alabama under 8-130.

1-1 with oklahoma state road trip this weekend. huge game for them, and for this RSW play

*MTSU under 6.5 +100

0-2 as expected but last week game was closer than expected. likely win against FCS bottom feeder next

*San Jose St under 5.5 +120

1-2 at toledo tough long road trip for the Spartans.

*Minnesota under 7.5 -160

2-0 interesting spot at UNC next. RSW could ride on this game.

*UTEP over 5.5 -115 BIG

1-2 team looks lost. fucking disaster and no offensive punch.

*Indiana under 3.5 +140

1-1 Neutral sight louisville game on deck. they do look tougher

*Vanderbilt over 3.5 -150

2-1

*Cal over 4.5 -152

1-1 should be 2-0 as they outplayed auburn in every way but squandered 5 2nd half possessions ending in the RZ with 0 points. FCS idaho next

*BYU under 5.5 +113

2-0, at arkansas next before B12 play commences.





1u UTEP 22-1 to win CUSA. team looks awful on offense. they have to get better at some point right?

1u UTSA +360 to win AAC hope F. Harris is not hurt badly, they will need him.

1u FAU +950 to win AAC could not move the ball against ohio...scarry to think about that.

1u EMU +790 to win MAC they can really pack it in on defense. amazing performance showing their intestinal fortitude against minnesota

1u San Diego state +650 to win MWC hard to think this team has anything to be excited about this year...

1.75u Washington +400 win P12 lights out offense gonna be tough out in the P12



longshots to win their respective conference title



.33u navy 45/1 likely donation middies are really bad

.125u cal 80/1 they are going to be a problem for a lot of foes

.416u NIU 22/1 + .33u 29/1 (local casino) great team win against BC then lose to FCS...perfect MAC team.

.125u Texas State 80/1 looks good now down to 10/1

U gonna go beast mode this week

 

[steponaduck]

FCS

northern colorado + Washington ST over 53
Rice -33
Texas STate -16.5

 

[steponaduck]

16-3 woah

 

[B.A.R.]

U gonna go beast mode this week

Called it

 

[Coach 40/40]

Fantastic week.