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Eagles Soar vs Battle-Weary Wolfpack
Boston College (5-4) plays its final home game against No. 23 NC State (6-3) with the aim of achieving bowl eligibility. The visiting Wolfpack are favored by a field goal.
Defensively, NC State relies most on its front 7, speared by defensive linemen with ambition to make the NFL. In the past two weeks, NC State has been gashed by the physical running attack of Notre Dame then Clemson for combined 542 rush yards. Clemson alone has overwhelmed opponents. Teams are 1-7 ATS the week after facing Clemson. Last season, NC State faced Notre Dame and Clemson in consecutive weeks, then lost 54-13 on the road to Lousiville.
Boston College is run-first: 60% of their plays have been runs. They rely on a physical pair of bruisers, AJ Dillon and Jon Hillman, who can continue to wear down NC State's run defense. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS when rushing for 200+ yards, which they have done in 4 out of their last 5 games.
AJ Dillon has been Boston College's most important producer. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS as dogs of 14 points or fewer when Dillon has less than 20 carries. They are 4-0 ATS and SU when Dillon runs more than 20 times.
Expect another high workload from the former Michigan commit, who is largely responsible for BC's 6-0 ATS run. Dillon is a north-south running back whose 240 pound size and strength make him difficult to bring down. His grinding gains allow Boston College to control time of possession and wear down the opponent. In their past 3 games, in each of which Dillon has run 20+ times, Boston College averages 33:06 of possession, which would place them in the top 15.
The Wolfpack rely on a balanced offense whose key contributors have struggled. After throwing zero interceptions all season, quarterback Ryan Finley has thrown 3 in the past 2 weeks. Boston College ranks 4th in opposing QB rating and 9th in interceptions per game and can prolong Finley's struggles.
Kamrin Moore and Isaac Yiadom are BC's physical, NFL-caliber cornerbacks. Moore's solid ball skills are evident in his quick reaction speed in man coverage. Yiadom is an even more physical cornerback with greater length. Lukas Denis is thriving in his transition from corner to free safety and leads the Eagles with 5 interceptions.
NC State's rush attack is led by the reeling Nyheim Hines, who has been struggling with his health and managed only 40 rush yards in the past 2 games. Boston College's poor rush statistics derive from their early-season struggles with injury. Their run defense suffered a meltdown in terms of maintaining assignments and securing gap integrity in Week 3 against Notre Dame, whose rushing attack managed several big gains. But the new defensive personnel has adjusted to its new level of responsibility. Most lately, they've held Virginia Tech to 2.3 yards per carry, Virginia to 3.7 YPC and Florida State to 2.2 YPC. The longest run that they've allowed in those games was 23.
The Verdict
A fresh Boston College off a bye week can earn bowl eligibility at home against a reeling Wolfpack who come off two physical battles against top-ranked teams, including an emotionally frustrating loss against Clemson. Boston College's top-ranked pass defense won't allow Finley to contribute to an offensive balance, while Hines can't carry his team, either, against an improved BC run defense. The Eagles' physical rush attack won't give NC State's defense a chance to recover and, once their pride, the Wolfpack's run defense will continue to suffer.
NCAAF Pick: Boston College +3
Eagles Soar vs Battle-Weary Wolfpack
Boston College (5-4) plays its final home game against No. 23 NC State (6-3) with the aim of achieving bowl eligibility. The visiting Wolfpack are favored by a field goal.
Defensively, NC State relies most on its front 7, speared by defensive linemen with ambition to make the NFL. In the past two weeks, NC State has been gashed by the physical running attack of Notre Dame then Clemson for combined 542 rush yards. Clemson alone has overwhelmed opponents. Teams are 1-7 ATS the week after facing Clemson. Last season, NC State faced Notre Dame and Clemson in consecutive weeks, then lost 54-13 on the road to Lousiville.
Boston College is run-first: 60% of their plays have been runs. They rely on a physical pair of bruisers, AJ Dillon and Jon Hillman, who can continue to wear down NC State's run defense. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS when rushing for 200+ yards, which they have done in 4 out of their last 5 games.
AJ Dillon has been Boston College's most important producer. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS as dogs of 14 points or fewer when Dillon has less than 20 carries. They are 4-0 ATS and SU when Dillon runs more than 20 times.
Expect another high workload from the former Michigan commit, who is largely responsible for BC's 6-0 ATS run. Dillon is a north-south running back whose 240 pound size and strength make him difficult to bring down. His grinding gains allow Boston College to control time of possession and wear down the opponent. In their past 3 games, in each of which Dillon has run 20+ times, Boston College averages 33:06 of possession, which would place them in the top 15.
The Wolfpack rely on a balanced offense whose key contributors have struggled. After throwing zero interceptions all season, quarterback Ryan Finley has thrown 3 in the past 2 weeks. Boston College ranks 4th in opposing QB rating and 9th in interceptions per game and can prolong Finley's struggles.
Kamrin Moore and Isaac Yiadom are BC's physical, NFL-caliber cornerbacks. Moore's solid ball skills are evident in his quick reaction speed in man coverage. Yiadom is an even more physical cornerback with greater length. Lukas Denis is thriving in his transition from corner to free safety and leads the Eagles with 5 interceptions.
NC State's rush attack is led by the reeling Nyheim Hines, who has been struggling with his health and managed only 40 rush yards in the past 2 games. Boston College's poor rush statistics derive from their early-season struggles with injury. Their run defense suffered a meltdown in terms of maintaining assignments and securing gap integrity in Week 3 against Notre Dame, whose rushing attack managed several big gains. But the new defensive personnel has adjusted to its new level of responsibility. Most lately, they've held Virginia Tech to 2.3 yards per carry, Virginia to 3.7 YPC and Florida State to 2.2 YPC. The longest run that they've allowed in those games was 23.
The Verdict
A fresh Boston College off a bye week can earn bowl eligibility at home against a reeling Wolfpack who come off two physical battles against top-ranked teams, including an emotionally frustrating loss against Clemson. Boston College's top-ranked pass defense won't allow Finley to contribute to an offensive balance, while Hines can't carry his team, either, against an improved BC run defense. The Eagles' physical rush attack won't give NC State's defense a chance to recover and, once their pride, the Wolfpack's run defense will continue to suffer.
NCAAF Pick: Boston College +3
