NBA XI 2012 Redux

[hugh613]

From what I remember, I was up about 350 on the regular season before the site went down. I'll update the record once the original thread is back online and/or I find the time to sift through my graded wagers on 5Dimes. For now, we'll just reset the record back to zero and take it from there...

YTD: 0-0, +/- 0.00

Saturday:

NBA Chicago Bulls / Milwaukee Bucks Over 97 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*First Half Overs at Bradley Center have been money since the start of last season (28-9), so with the Bucks currently playing at the fastest pace in the league (96.1), not much reason to back off now. From a numbers perspective: a) over the course of the past week, the Bucks defense has been torched by the likes of New Orleans and Charlotte, so despite how woeful the Bulls offense can look at times, they should be in good position to put up some points in this one, b) that vaunted Bulls defense has been anything but their last five games, giving up an average of 100.6 PPG and a DEFF of 108.55, so that should be good news for a Bucks offense averaging 105.0 PPG and an OEFF of 107.1 over their last five, and c) the last four 1H's between the two (basically the last four since Skiles decided to ratchet up the tempo at the start of last season) have flown over the number (101, 110, 117, 105).

As for why the 1H and not the FG, meh... There were enough times last season when the 1H would sail over, then the Bucks would ease up and/or shoot bricks in the 2H, so might as well just stick to the script.

Good luck!

 

[Hulu]

Love it Hugh. I'm on the full game over myself. GL

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Hulu. Good luck to you as well.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 1-0, +2.00

Adding:

NBA Golden State Warriors -2½ [FT] -110
*The T-Wolves defense, which carried them for the first part of the season, has fallen apart the last three games (103 PPG, DEFF 113.04). Meanwhile, the Warriors have won four of their last six overall, and eight of their last ten vs. Minnesota.

Good luck!

 

[STEED]

:Cheers:

 

[hugh613]

YTD 2-0, +3.00

Sunday:

NBA Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 102½ [FT] -110 *2 UNITS*
*That Hornets defense is playing some pretty atrocious ball as the season progresses: last in the league in overall DEFF at 110.4, a miserable 105.0 PPG and 112.4 DEFF through their first five games on the road, and a whopping 111.0 PPG and 122.3 DEFF their last five overall (mind you, their last two games went to OT, but their defensive numbers through regulation were still pretty bad). As for the Nuggets, the offense hasn't been quite as explosive as in years past but, then again, only four of their first thirteen games have been at home so far, and therein lies the key: no other team in the league has played at a faster pace at home than the Nuggets have the past two seasons, and no other team has put up as many points at home than the Nuggets have the past two seasons. Even with only four games at Pepsi Center to this point, the Nuggets have still managed to put up a minimum 102 in three of those first four games, and have hit the century mark in eight of their last eleven overall.

I capped it at 113 for the Nuggets, so provided it's not a blowout early on, Denver should be able to take full advantage of Anthony Davis being missing on the inside, and manage to light it up at a pretty good clip in this one.

Good luck!

STEED

 

[hugh613]

Effed by the hook last night (I would love to know the reasoning behind milking the clock on almost every possession when you're down 20 in the 4th quarter. Stupid Hornets...) On to tonight...

YTD: 2-1, +0.80

Monday:

NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 93 [FT] -110 *2 UNITS*
*Not much point in re-hashing the numbers again (see post #1), but a few things regarding tonight's game: a) the Bucks have put up this number in eight of their eleven games overall, and all five of their games on the road, and b) the Bulls have given up this number in seven of their last nine games overall, and three of their six games at home (although, in fairness, the three games that went under were against the punchless offenses of Sacramento, New Orleans, and Minnesota); in other words, not much reason to think it won't happen again.

And, yeah, I know... The Bucks only managed 86 at the Bradley Center the other night, but this is what happens when you go 3-17 from 3, and only get to the line 10 times the entire game. Since neither number jives with what either side has been doing to this point in the season, I'm willing to chalk up Saturday as an aberration, and pretty much expect Skiles to tell his team to be a whole lot more aggressive on offense in this one.

Good luck!

p.s. Brandon Jennings is a game time decision which is both good and bad. Obviously, you want his scoring if he's available, but I was never big on the Ellis deal, so that just means more shots for Monta (which suits his game a lot better I find), and a few more touches for Ilyasova and Dunleavy as well. Plus, Samuel Dalembert should be back in the starting lineup tonight (yay, Samuel Dalembert), so that'll be a ginormous upgrade over Przybilla who did a whole lot of nothing on Saturday night.

 

[hugh613]

On a team with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis... John Henson is leading the team in scoring (f**king Jennings should have just stayed in the locker room). Might as well lose twice on the same game...

Adding:

NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 47½ [2H] -110 *2 UNITS*

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

Lucked out big time last night, still... Would've been nice if Udoh had managed to split his free throws and/or Dunleavy had managed to inbound the ball. On to tonight...

YTD: 3-1-1, +2.80

Tuesday:

NBA Toronto Raptors / Houston Rockets Over 103 [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*
*Fastest pace in the league right now? The Houston Rockets (94.61). Last five Rockets' first halves? 109, 128, 105, 88, and 129. That's good enough for me.

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 4-1-1, +4.80

Adding:

NBA Sacramento Kings Team Total Over 98 [FT] -110
*I don't trust the Kings... at all, but it's kind of hard to ignore a team that's shooting 50% its last five games.

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

Also locking this one in now in case the number gets away from me...

Wednesday:

NBA New York Knicks / Milwaukee Bucks Over 198½ [FT] -110 *2 UNITS*

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 4-2-1, +3.70

Pending/Adding:

NBA New York Knicks / Milwaukee Bucks Over 198½ [FT] -110 *2 UNITS*
NBA Oklahoma City Thunder -6 [1H] -105 *2 UNITS*

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

I wasn't going to bet the NBA tonight but, y'know, things have a way of changing...

YTD: 5-3-1, +3.50

Thursday:

NBA Miami Heat -11½ [FT] -110 *5 UNITS*
*I'll have to dig up my record before the site went down in order to stay in the positive if this doesn't hit. That or, worse comes to worse, I'll try to middle it at the half.

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

Didn't quite work out last night *sigh* but, at the same time, I'm of the opinion it's a bet you pretty much have to make if/when the opportunity arises and, let's face it, if someone had told you the Heat would put up 105, I think most people would've just assumed the rout was on. Oh well... Time to start building back up...

YTD: 5-4-1, -2.00

Friday:

NBA Charlotte Bobcats +2 [1H] -115
NBA Milwaukee Bucks Team Total Over 48 [1H] -110
*That Philadelphia offense is pretty woeful on the road and, having watched the Bucks fairly closely the past few seasons, I expect them to come out and shoot, shoot and shoot some more to start the game in this one - hopefully the baskets go in.

Good luck!

 

[hugh613]

This is falling apart pretty fast...

YTD: 5-6-1, -4.25

Adding:

NBA Sacramento Kings Team Total Over 46½ [1H] -110 *2 UNITS*

Good luck!