NBA week 2

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
ugly ugly ugly start to the season for me. Will put in the record when I find the heart to do it. Havnt hit a 2nd H play yet which was my strength last yr. Probably not being selective enough. WIll keep going at it though.

Tonight 3 games:

NJ/Phoenix- lean NJ with the points, but I'll stay off as I expect this one to be a close win for Phoenix. NJ 1st H owuld be the top lean for this game as Phoenix may let the bench in esp early in anticipation of 4/5. Amare should eat Yi alive, and rookie Brook will not be able to handle Shaq for however long he plays. I'm actually surprised how high this line is. NJ opened -6 vs GS couple days ago- NJ -2.5. GS opened +5ish vs NO- NO -8.5. NO was +3 @ Phoenix- Phoenix +.5. Thus Phoenix would be -8 over GS, and -5.5 over NJ.. then HC and its Phoenix -2.. therefore -7 seems real high imo.

Houston/Boston- both teams should play their hardest, so with motivation factor out, picking this game is picking the bteer team. Not much of a fan of this as theres no motivational advantage for either team. Boston off a blowout and you know they'll want to bounce back. Houston revenge from last yrs 20 games win streak break. Boston probably on paper more cohesive since Houston still hasnt had much time together while Boston won the championship together. Matchup wise- Rondo/Alston- push. TMac-Ray- TMac esp with Ray struggling and shooters truggle vs taller defenders. Pierce/Artest- call me crazy but I give edge to artest but we'll call it push. KG/Scola- KG. Yao/Perk- Yao. Houston bench> Boston bench. In that aspect Houston has advantage. However, things keeping me off: Houston new, Boston off blowout, BAR 4 units?!. Like the under and may be a play. In the 4th KG will be on Yao. However, whoever Ray guards (TMAC/Artest) will take advantage. Think Houston wins a close one: 90-85

SA/Dallas
Dallas on a b2b, and really havnt impressed. Blown out last night but was probably a lookahead to today. Couldn't stop Yao, and won a close one @ Minny. Thinking DUncan should tear them apart, and doubt SA start 0-3, but SA team outside of Duncan/Parker has been worthy of 0-3. Kidd should struggle guarding speedy TP, but dunno who goes out to guard Dirk. Duncan? Lean on under as usual with these big games b/w 2 good teams, but Dallas new style gets me off it.

Friday gonna be on GS in revenge vs Memphis, esp if I can get them off a loss vs Denver. If Phoenix and SA can win close ones today, I'll be on Indiana/Minnesota possibly mL 2m
 
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GL tonight SF - its early bro, let the teams play a few more games and then you can recognize whos playing better and when. totals because thats usually my strength but I figured I wasnt being disciplined enough.
 
deciding to stay off. Got off the Boston/Houston under as they both struggled offensively last game. Boston did ok on D, but were stagnant on offense and will look to address it this game. Also, Houston struggled offensively vs OKC often just playing 1 on 1, so this game and on they'll try to get the motion and passing thats trademark for Adelman offenses. Therefore, not taking the under on a very low number with 2 teams that will try to address their offensive woes.
 
SF_capper said:
deciding to stay off. Got off the Boston/Houston under as they both struggled offensively last game. Boston did ok on D, but were stagnant on offense and will look to address it this game. Also, Houston struggled offensively vs OKC often just playing 1 on 1, so this game and on they'll try to get the motion and passing thats trademark for Adelman offenses. Therefore, not taking the under on a very low number with 2 teams that will try to address their offensive woes.
Click to expand...

Came to a similiar conclusion myself probably changed to lean over if anything because of exactly what you said . :shake:
 
2nd half Houston/Boston under 90.5- 1.05 to win 1.

Pace should slow with Yao in. Defenses will tighten up. Long possessions in the 2nd half
 
likely gonna be on:

Indiana- just like this team this yr, and imo they will be undervalued for at least a couple more weeks. It's gonna be tough for teams to go out and win at Indi

SA- players and Pop is pissed at 0-3. looking from outside- its not too bad. lost in a huge rvenge spot for playoff likely Suns; could've won at the buzzer at tough arena in Portland to playoff likely Blazers, blown out by improved Mavs with mavs obviously looking to this game in their blowout the day before. Minneosta has allowed: Dallas's first win, OKC first win, ALMOST blew lead to Sac. I think SA gets it going tonight and have their record start lookin a lot better by the end of this month

Lean GS/GS 1st H. Melo lit a fire- GS back from the road trip. Jack is a good defender and will limit Melo. Scared of JR Smith goin off, but eh
 
ok got them in
Indiana ml +125- 2 units to win 2.5
San antonio 1st half -2.5- 1.05 units to win 1
San antonio -4.5- 1.05 units to win 1

Shaq vs foster was the main matchup that I worried about, and with shaq out, indiana should roll. No one to defend the paint from tj and granger drives. No one on phoenix can contain granger, while IMO murphy should be able to hold his own vs amare esp forcing him to the perimeter on d. Indiana should take this game as a challenge, and force a lot of turnovers as they did vs Boston. Phoenix turnover woes yesterday were hidden by their 67% shooting, which won't happen again, and I doubt they addressed it after the game. Indiana and San antonio roll from beginning to end
 
Golden St +140

Golden st sharp off losses. the youngins looked good last game. Arco arena not a big factor since lotta GS fans there
 
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