NBA Week 2 11/7

lifesallover

Pretty much a regular
Disclaimer, I should be faded right now. In a horrible rut, losing my last 5.
YTD 6-4 -.5Units (Posted), Lost Toronto last night (Unposted).

New Orleans Hornets @ Portland Trailblazers +4 (or greater, will wait til' tipoff)
New Orleans Hornets @ Portland Trailblazers ML (Again, will wait)

"We haven't been punching first and we have to punch first, right out of the gate." Martell Webster "In the first 20 seconds of the game, the other team will know how we are coming out to play and that we are going to keep it up the whole game. That's very important and crucial."

First things first, Blazers have looked terrible the last 2 games against the Rockets and these very Hornets. In my last thread as that game was winding down, I circled this game, and gauranteed this would be a play for me. I pretty much was dead on everything except the outcome, Blazer defense was bad, but Hornets were knocking down everything, espacially in that 1st quarter and completely distroyed the Blazers will. I don't see them shooting 67% to start the game, that was simply absurd. Hornets put Chandler on Aldridge in that game last week, and worked very well, and left West to gaurd Pryzbilla, which also worked well because Pryzbilla is not an offensive..anything, so the size mismatch did nothing for the Blazers. I also stated Paul would abuse long time friend, Jack. He did, with ease. The Blazers will be starting Blake at PG and Frye at C. Will it work? Who knows. Blake is a better PG right now, and a LOT better defender, will he shut down Paul? No, will he do better then Jack, yes. Frye gets the Nod at center, is this a good thing? Depends who are, Frye with the exception of the 2nd half against the Rockets, has looked lost, and all but shook me from his bandwagon. I'm not sold on him, but he loked better against Houston. But this will create an advantage against Chandler/West, Frye should be able to take advantage offensively against the undersized West, something Pryzbilla could not. And he is athletic enough to come out on West. I'm not gonna break down all the positions, cause nothing else has changed. The Hornets still have a bad bench, and I will be shocked if they come up with a game like last week, Jackson and Butler are feast or famine, last week Jackson had maybe the best game he's had in a couple years(isn't he due for an injury, any moment now??). Their bench doesn't scare me, and I expect the Blazers to come out and smack them in the mouth at the tip, they've been talking it this week, now they need to walk it. They are saying all the right things to the media right now, but now they have to prove it. Outside of all that, it's a bad spot for the Hornets schedule wise, and Portland is well rested. It's the home opener(last in the league), sell out crowd, renevated court. The players and staff know that even though it's early, this game is crucial for their season. The Ducks are on a national stage, and when they are done, the Blazers need to show that they are going to be competitive, or the fans that didn't write this season off after Oden went down, will quickly fall inline. I can't emphasize how truly big this game is for the Blazers, it's sink or swim already after 3 games and the 4th on deck.

The Blazers don't deserve to be played right now, in all honesty, so tread lightly, but I said last week this was a play, and the only thing I have is my word, and I still like this play. Goodluck to all.

Other plays I'll be looking at are Grizz/Sonics Over, Heat/Spurs Under.


Lets hope some breaks fall our way tonight. Goodluck fellas.
 
No Plays are official yet, but I have a few I'll be looking at.

Toronto Raptors +6.5 @ Chicago Bulls
First things first, I am 0-2 on Toronto games so far in this early season, and they have shit the bed on both games. They have not been playing much defense, and it's killed them. If they put a hand in the face of shooters, I think they can win this game SU. Chicago wins one game, and now they're laying 6.5 to a playoff team? I'm not sold yet, they still have absolutely no inside offense, and if their shooting struggles early, they will have their hands full. The Raptors are underachieving massively early on, they are better then they've shown, the talent is their, can they put together a complete game? Call me a sucker, and I should know better, but I like the Raps getting 6.5, but if history has shown me anything, it's that I have no feel for these guys right now.

Boston Celtics @ New Jersey Nets +3.5

Celtics have to lose eventually right, the whole world is on Boston right now, the books don't give away free money, question is, are the Nets the team to hand the C's their first loss? Not overly confident, but it's early I'll have to look at a few things.

Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trailblazers +8
Blazers are tough as big dogs, lead alone big homedogs, scrappy bunch who never throw in the towel (15pt comeback last night), Portland is 4-1 ATS, however Dallas OWNS Portland, winning 14 in a row against them, and 9-4 ATS. I'm just not sold that Dallas is completely focused right yet, they are a soft team, question is, is the Blazers tough enough to do something about it. Depends what Blazers team we see, the one from the last 2 games, for the one from the two before. This team is completely erratic, but I love playing them as a large dogs, espacially at home.

Devin Harris is out of tonights starting lineup for personal reasons.

Again, nothing is official, and too be honest I may just take the day off, BOL tonight everyone.:cheers:
 
FWIW, Im not sold on Dallas being a soft team. They were down in the last 30 seconds to the Spurs in San An in a game 7 of a WCF series, yet Dirk scored a 3 point play to take them into OT where they then destroyed the defending champs in order to get to the 05-06 finals. Thats not the play of a soft team IMO. In those finals they got screwed by the refs so much its ridiculous, and theres even photographic proof that evidences that as fact (a foul being called on Wade when there is visibly no contact whatsoever taking place). They simply have head problems with one particular team, who they lucked out in meeting in the playoffs last season (and that SFN team isnt going to make it there this season, so Dallas can rest easy).
 
BC good points, I should say before hand, I have never been a big fan Dirk, I'm actually pretty critical of him, and in his/dallas' defense, I haven't seen a bunch of their games, but it seems to be, whenever Dallas needs a bucket, Dirk can disappear (don't get me wrong, he can come up huge, and does), but for a guy who is a defending MVP, he can disappear and settle a lot more then he should, considering his offensive repetoire, and it seems like more time then not (and again I don't get to see a large amount of Dallas games a year), but in the 4th quarter it seems to me it's Jason Terry coming up big for them, and Dirk defers/takes poor shots. I just feel someone with as a good a skill set as Dirk, he should be a big factor then he is in a lot of the outcome. But I have a bias towards foreign players, and tend to be extra critical of Dirk.

I guess soft is not the word, the more I think of it, Stackhouse/Howard/Terry always come up big when it matters. Also the only Mavs games I've seen that come to mind immediately is the GS series, the Atl game and the Warriors game on TNT, so my impression may be skewed by that. Although they looked dominant against the Cavs in the season opener.
 
<LI class=more>Mavericks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite.<LI class=more>Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. <LI class=more>Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. <LI class=morecool>Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. <LI class=morecool>Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. <LI class=morecool>Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. <LI class=morecool>Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. <LI class=morecool>Mavericks are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.


  • <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest. <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. <LI class=morehot>Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. <LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games.
  • Trail Blazers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog.
  • <LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
I do worry a little bit about a let down here tonight after leaving so much on the court last night crawling back into that game against Memphis. It's imperative that don't come out flat in the first quarter, which could be a problem. A lot of interesting trends from recent history with the two, that have me mulling over.
 
NJN - Loss
Toronto Raptors - Win
9-5 ytd


Portland up 49-42 at the break despite some atrocious calls against them including 4 phantom calls that cost them 6 points. They look good, Roy is off to a hot start for the first time all season, Dallas not hitting their shots.
 
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