NBA Wednesday

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
good day yesterday looking to build on it

Portland @ SA
my line is SA -4 and I'm guessing we see something along those lines, maybe a tad higher, and I'll be looking to play SA. Portland cannot beat good teams on the road. I've said it in many previous threads with proof this yr. Today's SA performance was a nice one and very SA-esque. 4th Q defense on a younger inexperienced team, and I expect similar 2m. I'm not sure, but I'd imagine ESPN will be talking up SA's age on b2bs and how they're in trouble without Manu. Pop orchestrated today's game nicely: duncan with 32 minutes, Parker with 35, no one else really with hard minutes. This is a pretty big revenge and statement game for SA as well: last game Portland beat them shitless in an embarassing effort by SA. It is now time for SA to show that the championship still needs to go past SA on national TV. Down 10 in the 4th, Portland would be smart to throw in the towel a little earlier with this being game 2 of a 4/5 for them with the home game vs LAL next.

Memphis @ Orlando
not a fan. Line's a tad high- my rankings show -12, but I'll need more than decent value to bet on memphis. Memphis beat orlando in the beginning of the season, orlando off a loss while memphis is off losing a last minute lead. This one smells like an orlando blowout, esp with their ATS record of beating teams revenging a loss. Pass

Toronto @ Indiana
Indiana has been playing much better ball lately and doing so quietly. Toronto had a good thing going with that win streak, but as t-dot mentioned that win streak was likely the fuel for them to continue it. Now that it has ended and they've lost 2 in a row, I don't see any reason they'd bring effort in a meaningless road game. Last time these guys played, 3/15, Indiana was still fighting for that playoff spot when Toronto basically bitchslapped them down to their level. In yesterday's game, (thanks to t-dot) Toronto did not bench their starters and gave them decently heavy minutes to show respect to the playoff teams- not giving any team an easy W. That does not apply here, and I cannot imagine Toronto starters play heavy minutes on a b2b from toronto to indiana. Have played Indiana -6 -105- 5

get to other games in a bit, but have played OKC +13.5 -105- 4 and Utah +3 -105- 3
really reconsidering the Utah play though
 
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Yeah that raps play makes sense to me, if triana doesnt play the guys too long, but if he does it could be harder---

i agree this looks like a mail in spot for Raps, but you never know with Indy because their D sucks and they cant really blow teams out--

Also raps have been competitive and trying hard, so if you tihnk they will just mail it in, they have been trying in each and every game the last while--

It depends how much POPS, Douby, and graham and Bradley guy plays tomorrow--

One thing about this team, unlike the Clips who are not even trying anymore and benching everyone the Raps coach said he will play starters most of the game--

Also have you noticed 1st qtrs of games now are flying over, I just hit 17 of my last 20 first qtr overs, they are going insanely over my friend-- routinely 60+ points, some games get to 70 poiints easily
 
Good logic on spurs game and Spurs usually beat the Blazers at home anyway--
However I cannot get the feeling out of my head that the spurs cant beat good teams either at Home--

I can feel them having a 6 point QTr at home tomorrow, they have those qtrs often on the road and i can see them having one of those qtrs tomorrow for some reason.

Agree Blazers dont beat good teams though, but Spurs are not a good home team, they just dont blow out good teams at home--
Orlando, Lakers, Boston all won in spurs land--

If anything play spurs but smaller due to the 6 point qtr factor which I think might happen to them tomorrow===

get off UTah if you are reconsidering, that is a likely loss if your GUT is telling you to get off, it is to save you a loss.
 
Raps 4th game in 5 nights and Indy's 2nd game in 5 nights---

should be a huge edge for INDY--

This looks like a possible good play unless INDY is not benching thier starters, if they dont they win this game and cover--
 
Thanks for thoughts Sammy

Phoenix @ New Orleans
this one is a weird one. I really want to play New Orleans just to fade Phoenix, but I don't like taking teams with flight on a b2b off an emotional OT. New Orleans owns Phoenix- covering the last 8- mainly due to chris paul just running circles around nash. If no one got the memo yet, Phoenix is done for the year. You can hear it in their tones of interviews- they're done. I think the only way I'd bet this is New Orleans or the over. I have a very bad record with totals, so I think it'd be best if I stayed away from it, but from a pure matchup wise- the total makes sense to me. CP3 will get his and some vs Nash. West will do damage to Barnes if he tries to guard him. Hill, who's on a tear, will get whatever he wants on Peja. Shaq should dominate Armstrong even if he's playing half assed. The total makes sense to me as New Orleans with tired legs should imply worse defense, while Phoenix playing heartlessly should elad to less defense than usual. The last 5 have gone over the number as well
 
sammy regarding Portland, this is their games this yr versus the top 10 teams in the west this yr:

10/28/08 @ L.A. Lakers L 76-96
11/01/08 @ Phoenix L 96-107
11/05/08 @ Utah L 96-103
11/14/08 @ New Orleans L 82-87
11/18/08 @ Golden State L 106-111
11/22/08 @ Phoenix L 92-102
12/11/08 @ Utah L 88-97
12/22/08 @ Denver L 89-97
01/04/09 @ L.A. Lakers L 86-100
02/02/09 @ New Orleans W 97-89
02/04/09 @ Dallas L 99-104
02/12/09 @ Golden State L 98-105
02/24/09 @ Houston L 94-98
02/25/09 @ San Antonio L 84-99
03/05/09 @ Denver L 90-106
04/05/09 @ Houston L 88-102

Only one win, and I know you remember that game: New Orleans was up 20+ in the 3rd then CP3 went down and NOLA was shocked and lost it. Why would I even consider not betting against Portland here
 
POrtland has lost 11 in a row in San antonio also---

My friend we must find the teams who are playing loose, they are goign way way over in 1st qtr--

Suns and raps are 2 teams that I noticed-- along with SAC TOWN AND g STATE--

Some teams playing on back to backs---

But Suns are going over so fast, usually with 2 mins left in 1st qtr they hit over the total--

Hornets lost and Paul plays the whole 1st qtr-- that can go over quite easily, suns have packed the Defense in, unless they changed from the dallas game--

Expect a 60+ point 1st again--

raps are usually a good starting team also, and I think vs Indy, that game should also go over first qtr---
Only way it does not is a score like 32-18 indy--- Ie raps start out shit and dont hit anything, but I dont see that--

They are scoring and stopping no one, Indy can score and not great AT D--

AN over will hit in this game, either qtr or half or full game, just have to pick one I like
 
SF_capper said:
sammy regarding Portland, this is their games this yr versus the top 10 teams in the west this yr:

10/28/08 @ L.A. Lakers L 76-96
11/01/08 @ Phoenix L 96-107
11/05/08 @ Utah L 96-103
11/14/08 @ New Orleans L 82-87
11/18/08 @ Golden State L 106-111
11/22/08 @ Phoenix L 92-102
12/11/08 @ Utah L 88-97
12/22/08 @ Denver L 89-97
01/04/09 @ L.A. Lakers L 86-100
02/02/09 @ New Orleans W 97-89
02/04/09 @ Dallas L 99-104
02/12/09 @ Golden State L 98-105
02/24/09 @ Houston L 94-98
02/25/09 @ San Antonio L 84-99
03/05/09 @ Denver L 90-106
04/05/09 @ Houston L 88-102

Only one win, and I know you remember that game: New Orleans was up 20+ in the 3rd then CP3 went down and NOLA was shocked and lost it. Why would I even consider not betting against Portland here
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I know waht you are saying BRO, good research, but in reality it means nothing-- I will tell you why----

This is a one game tomorrow vs SPURS-- the odds of either team winning are in reality 50%-------
The fact Portland is not good on road and losing to everyone is IN THE PAST, they can win tomorrow--

That stat about Portland would be usefull to a guy who is betting based on percentages- He would bet vs portland blindy--

However if you are not doing that, stats mean nothing--

The only thing that ever matters in a game is the GAME itself and how the teams shoot and PLAY--

There is so much talk in media, forums and in peoples heads, when in reality brother the results are pretty likely in all sports, UNC kept winning and covering, its not rocket science--

Games go over in 1st qtr of NBA at this time---

If you like SPurs due to the 5 players beating the 5 on Portland and motivation and and little revenge that is GOOD, but dont trick yourself on this stat on the road about Portland--

i agree they keep losing, but you had to jump on the stat at the start of the losing streak,,, Now it does not matter--

if they lose they LOSE, it had nothing to do with the FIRST 12 losses on the road to western teams----
remember that, dont trick yourself and fool yourself, that is what information can do to a person--

This industry is simple, you can win if you bet on likely outcomes, however they know that 99.9999999% of people will self destruct and EMOTIOn will make them GAMBLE and lose all of their money---

SOrry for the long explanation but I thought it was important to tell you this.:cheers:
 
Utah @ Dallas
I know I'm going all over the place, but this is one I want to get in. This has been home dominated for obvious reasons with these teams. Utah has gained the reputation of a horrible road team, and for good reason: 15-23 SU on the road this yr. However, I think lines are starting to overadjust to Utah on the road, as a lot of their road troubles were really just their b2b struggles. This imo creates value on them on the road NOT on b2bs. In this case, they've had 2 days of rest and likely got to Dallas a day and a half early. Dallas is off that huge win for them essentially clinching the playoffs. Now this is a battle for 7th spot: Utah being able to pretty much seal it with a W here as Utah does not want to play LA in the playoffs. Dallas sittin at 17-28 ATS off a win this yr, 1-7 off a 20+ pt W. So what I see is the better team getting a couple points with a great matchups position for position wise. Jkidd cannot stay with dwill while Utah has many quick and long 3/4/5 to throw at Dirk/JHo. Probably will need a bit more help on this game if anyone has it
 
I think you are on to something in the RAPS game--

It is a 4th in 5 nights, I watch the Raps quite a bit, and they have not QUIT yet and are playing very good now--
They ran out of energy in 4th tonight and seem to have trouble vs certain teams--

i cant see them matching a rested inDy team, been off since saturday-- Tj FORd should go nuts, granger also, Murphy---

The key would be if Bargs and Boshy may rest some more, then they lose badly, otherwise this is a team who beat orlando, knicks on road, tied to atlanta in 4th qtr--

they are using their subs sparingly but that should change in certain spots, I agree but the coach Of RAPS is very dumb, he was our national team coach and is weird--
 
I would stay away from Utah my friend, the reason they cant win on the road is KYLe KORVER--

he takes too many shots and misses most of his 3's---

Boozer also is better at home and is not great on the road---

I do agree that Jazz are a good matchup vs the mavs----

Utah cant be trusted, in a close game in 4th qtr-- Its Dirk and Terry taking the Shots vs Kyle KORVER-- When he is in the game for utah he is the #1 option on the floor, that is why they never beat the Lakers no matter how good they are---

KOrver= choker
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I know waht you are saying BRO, good research, but in reality it means nothing-- I will tell you why----

This is a one game tomorrow vs SPURS-- the odds of either team winning are in reality 50%-------
The fact Portland is not good on road and losing to everyone is IN THE PAST, they can win tomorrow--

That stat about Portland would be usefull to a guy who is betting based on percentages- He would bet vs portland blindy--

However if you are not doing that, stats mean nothing--

The only thing that ever matters in a game is the GAME itself and how the teams shoot and PLAY--

There is so much talk in media, forums and in peoples heads, when in reality brother the results are pretty likely in all sports, UNC kept winning and covering, its not rocket science--

Games go over in 1st qtr of NBA at this time---

If you like SPurs due to the 5 players beating the 5 on Portland and motivation and and little revenge that is GOOD, but dont trick yourself on this stat on the road about Portland--

i agree they keep losing, but you had to jump on the stat at the start of the losing streak,,, Now it does not matter--

if they lose they LOSE, it had nothing to do with the FIRST 12 losses on the road to western teams----
remember that, dont trick yourself and fool yourself, that is what information can do to a person--

This industry is simple, you can win if you bet on likely outcomes, however they know that 99.9999999% of people will self destruct and EMOTIOn will make them GAMBLE and lose all of their money---

SOrry for the long explanation but I thought it was important to tell you this.:cheers:
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completely disagree that the past stats mean nothing- they revealed everything imo. If past success means nothing then you should ML every dog since, as you're saying, what they've done in the past means nothing for that game and there's a 50% chance of it hitting. I'm definitely not saying Portland will lose because they have been losing for sure, but its defintiely helpful to know that this Portland team that will be playing tomorrow has a tendency to play poorly on the road vs other western conference teams. Just by you mentioning that "a lot of games have been going over in the 1st Q lately" shows that u believe in trends, as you're looking for spots for that to continue. You're definitely not playing every 1st Q over blindly, but picking your spots knowing that lately that has been the trend and for good reason. Teams like GS/Sac/Phoenix play loose to begin with and we should expect them to do so again. The trend just solidifies the observation, like if I said GS has been 9-1 OVER in 1st Q of their last 10 games. We would be saying the same thing, only I'd be showing proof over just an observation. conclusion: I'm not fading portland blindly every road game they have vs the west, but the fact that they've struggled this season in other western arenas is a plus for me when deciding if I should make a play. Combine that with the revenge SA has, the standings, the chance for SA to tie the series and send a message- and I think SA should be a solid play 2m :shake:
 
Very well explained you are right, i was wrong my friend, the way you explained it makes perfect sense--

You have many reasons and not playing it blindly-- I apologize---

Yeah there are more reasons to play on Spurs, 11 in a row vs portland and a portalnd team that just cant win on the raod, it must mean they are not great i guess---

they are a home team--
If GONBOLIT was there I would feel better, and the only problem with spurs is they are so damn old and have struggled vs good teams this year at home although the beat portland at home every time good.
 
Bro-- the 4 in 5 nights is the worst schedule you can have in the NBA---

raps are on that, coupled with its at the end of the year and they are tired and out of playoffs---

Indy played once in the last 5 days, tomorrow will be their 2nd game and also they have 2 full day of rest off---

I can see a revenge beating cause last time raps really ran up the score in that match, Indy sort of quit that game, I was watching it, and was not mentally into it-

Indy has been one of the better teams in the NBA when healthy at home, very hard to beat--

I cant see them losing to this raps team.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Very well explained you are right, i was wrong my friend, the way you explained it makes perfect sense--

You have many reasons and not playing it blindly-- I apologize---

Yeah there are more reasons to play on Spurs, 11 in a row vs portland and a portalnd team that just cant win on the raod, it must mean they are not great i guess---

they are a home team--
If GONBOLIT was there I would feel better, and the only problem with spurs is they are so damn old and have struggled vs good teams this year at home although the beat portland at home every time good.
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:shake: What other games you looking at 2m Sammy? I'm thinking about riding my warriors 2m. This is out last winnable game of the season and its in front of our home crowd. Minnesota should be jacked up about winning today and should party a bit in LA before heading over
 
I like Indy a lot, I will look at an OVER in the first qtr with the right teams, I hit 99% of my games live play-- so i can take an over 4 to 5 times and win on it if I see the pace is fast and frenetic--

I can also take really good lines after a few misses, then i take over-- I hit most games 4th qtr over invovling WADE, havent lost this season on a miami 4th qtr over, cause wade goes nuts--

I played INdy, probably my first play in over 2 months on a full game play in NBA--

But I think they win this game, I hope that Bosh and bargs are sidelined, beacuse that is where they have the edge inside I think vs Indy--

Other than that, Indy has the edge I think--

This is INdy's 3rd game in 8 days, so I think they have a huge edge, the line of 6 is soft and I think Indy can take care of them-

indy is not playing any bench guys too much, as long as Boshy and Bargs see limited minutes Indy takes this one easy.
 
SF_capper said:
:shake: What other games you looking at 2m Sammy? I'm thinking about riding my warriors 2m. This is out last winnable game of the season and its in front of our home crowd. Minnesota should be jacked up about winning today and should party a bit in LA before heading over
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Maybe also a Gstate first qtr over tomorrow-- dont see why it would hit again--

Minny should run with the warriors--

Yeah I can see it being winnable but the Wolves are not too bad, they have a good squad--

First qtr over interests me perhaps
 
Also TJ FORD should want to go nuts again--

Lets hope Pops, Douby and Bradley guy get more playing time, kind of like a mail in effort for RAPS tomorrow--

ALthough they say they want to win games, but the thing I noticed is that they were playing thier bench guys more in the 2nd half to see what they have---

Hope they get behind and them empty the bench like you said, I see no reason why they would want to win tomorrow---

indy has revenge and is hot and should do the RAPS in, starters, subs or anyone--

Lets cash it
 
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
Don't see a good reason to play either side. Atlanta is pretty comfortable in the 4th seed not goin anywhere. Flying from Toronto to Milwaukee cannot be fun, esp when you get to go back home to atlanta after the game. Don't think Atlanta will be too focused on this game after the win yest and the miami L. However, Milwaukee has their share of problems, the biggest probably being an inability to win games having lost 17 of 22 games. eh can argue they're desperate or heartless and have ended their season early. Not gonna try too hard to figure out unless someone wants to help
 
OKC @ Denver
Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm stepping in the way of the Denver train here. Probably the hottest team in the west- just beating teams left and right. Now we have OKC playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, b2b at Denver. I do not think Denver has the mental strength to continue mowing over teams, and I think a team like OKC will be able to exploit that. Denver has a game at LA 2m and you gotta think they believe they can and will win. Huge lookahead for a team who's problems have been being shielded by sick 3 pt shooting and a favorable schedule with home games. I will be looking to fade them on the road in the playoffs. Now a concern could be that 1.5 games ahead of 3rd place, they try to ensure they get all the Ws they can- which would mean taking care of home games OKC and Sac. However, I think they'll need a wakeup call- one they havnt had yet and every team needs when they get this hot. OKC has lost 3 times to denver this season- the most recent a big win for Denver at home while OKC was minus durant. The other two were two melo buzzer beaters out playing friend Kevin Durant that they both enjoyed. I see a similar game here: tight with drama for a close Denver W and OKC cover. Have OKC +13.5 -105- 4

Minnesota @ Golden State
I do not know who's playing for us. I hope Monta and Maggette get back because the last couple games, we were runnin a 6 man rotation (I do not count Rob Kurz as an NBA player). My line here is GS -8.5, and I do not think I'll have to lay that much to be a homer here. Minnesota, I believe, is 1-5 ATS off a win without Al-Jefferson. Now, looking ahead at GS's schedule, our remaining games are: Houston, @ Utah, SA, @ Phoenix. This is our last game we can expect to win and I gotta think the Warriors put on a show for the fans. Looking to play GS
 
Like OKC +13.5, but Denver been on a surge. Andersen and JR Smith been big role players for the Nugz.

Also, wouldn't lay it with GS. They have good shot-blocking big men like randolph and turiaf, but both aren't real centers, but the Warriors been going bananas from 3 pt with Morrow. Talented kid.
 
SF_capper said:
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
Don't see a good reason to play either side. Atlanta is pretty comfortable in the 4th seed not goin anywhere. Flying from Toronto to Milwaukee cannot be fun, esp when you get to go back home to atlanta after the game. Don't think Atlanta will be too focused on this game after the win yest and the miami L. However, Milwaukee has their share of problems, the biggest probably being an inability to win games having lost 17 of 22 games. eh can argue they're desperate or heartless and have ended their season early. Not gonna try too hard to figure out unless someone wants to help
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I watch a lot of Bucks b-ball living in Wisky and I think it can be summed up as: 1.) Injured stars (Redd/Bogut) finally caught up with them as Skiles had them playing over their heads for soooo long and... 2.) Mind set effect of knowing the couldn't catch the Bulls for the 8th seed anymore. With that said they only have 3 home games left and I think Skiles will find a way to motivate them to have a good showing in 1 or 2 of them. Kind of hope they lose SU here or to Thunder on Saturday as I think they have a good chance to win their home finale next week with revenge (trying to avoid sweep) versus a Magic team hopefully not playing for anything...
 
tailed BAR and agree with his assessment of the game. Detroit playin for playoff seeding, NY playin for nothing. detroit 2 days rest, NY 4/5 with flights bw and a flight right after the game, hardly even qualifying it as a 'home game' Orginially thought the game was a bit overpriced, but now see considering the situation, -2.5 is a bit cheap.
 
for those wondering: Monta and maggette looking doubtful, biedrins will play but dunno how many minutes. I do expect sum1 on GS to make a surprise appearance jsut for the fact that nelson should know this is our only winnable game this yr left
 
just a stab- no value in these really so probably a bad bet:
Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, Indiana, GS ML Parlay- 2.5 for 3.1
 
eh likely done for now. Incredible value in SA imo
also very nice to have beaten the majority of the lines I played last night. Will try to wake up before tips
 
SF_capper said:
Atlanta @ Milwaukee
Don't see a good reason to play either side. Atlanta is pretty comfortable in the 4th seed not goin anywhere. Flying from Toronto to Milwaukee cannot be fun, esp when you get to go back home to atlanta after the game. Don't think Atlanta will be too focused on this game after the win yest and the miami L. However, Milwaukee has their share of problems, the biggest probably being an inability to win games having lost 17 of 22 games. eh can argue they're desperate or heartless and have ended their season early. Not gonna try too hard to figure out unless someone wants to help
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I think this point is fairly pertinent hence the reason I am on the Bucks tonight.
 
ok here's the updated card:
Orlando 1st Q -4 -115- 3
Indiana 1st H -3.5- 2
Indiana -6 -105- 5
Detroit -2.5 -108- 5
Oklahoma City +13.5 -105- 4
Golden State -6 -105- 3
 
Orlando 1st Q -4 -115- 3 L
Indiana 1st H -3.5- 2 W
Indiana -6 -105- 5 W
Detroit -2.5 -108- 5 W
San Antonio -2 -105- 4 L
Oklahoma City +13.5 -105- 4
Golden State -6 -105- 3

so far
+4.35
 
very nice as well because I was planning on taking stabs on nola and milwaukee which are both looking shitty. lol just woke up. wento sleep at the end of the 1st Q in SA feelin pretty good. Can anyone answer why Duncan got 23 minutes only?
 
Great work so far. Awesome thread as always. I'm still slacking, but have been out of town for the 1000th time in '09. Going to ride along with the Warriors. Agree that this is the last game they should count on winning, but I bet Houston trips up and loses in Oakland as well.
 
SF_capper said:
very nice as well because I was planning on taking stabs on nola and milwaukee which are both looking shitty. lol just woke up. wento sleep at the end of the 1st Q in SA feelin pretty good. Can anyone answer why Duncan got 23 minutes only?
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I can answer. Pop just doesn't give a shit. #1 seed, #4 seed, #8 seed. He doesn't care. Just wants everyone healthy, err Ginobli, for the playoffs.
 
BAR and JPicks :cheers:

If Duncan didn't get injured then I guess I was just completely wrong on SA and thought they'd care. eh

fuck b2b terry 3s to end the Q
 
Buddy good stuff on Pacers, after reading your stuff, I worked on that game for 4 hours, went on a few drives to get the right frame of thinking on that game, was my biggest play this year and one of the few full game plays---

Spurs I guess were the same spurs as I thought they were---

I was concerend with the 6 point qtr, and they had 3 qtrs under 20 points---

I actually got portland live betting when duncan was out as I knew POPS tanks games and spurs cant beat good teams at home who are long and athletic.


Good work I am looking at the warrriors game, seeing about the 1st qtr, just trying to figure out what kind of game minny will play and who is starting and if there any defenders--

However I need a lot of time, cause I usually check each box score for their last 20 games at least until I come up with the right answer, kind of like a mad scientist

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Sammy Meatballs said:
Buddy good stuff on Pacers, after reading your stuff, I worked on that game for 4 hours, went on a few drives to get the right frame of thinking on that game, was my biggest play this year and one of the few full game plays---

Spurs I guess were the same spurs as I thought they were---

I was concerend with the 6 point qtr, and they had 3 qtrs under 20 points---

I actually got portland live betting when duncan was out as I knew POPS tanks games and spurs cant beat good teams at home who are long and athletic.


Good work I am looking at the warrriors game, seeing about the 1st qtr, just trying to figure out what kind of game minny will play and who is starting and if there any defenders--

However I need a lot of time, cause I usually check each box score for their last 20 games at least until I come up with the right answer, kind of like a mad scientist

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keep us posted! :cheers:
 
Orlando 1st Q -4 -115- 3 L
Indiana 1st H -3.5- 2 W
Indiana -6 -105- 5 W
Detroit -2.5 -108- 5 W
San Antonio -2 -105- 4 L
Oklahoma City +13.5 -105- 4 W
Golden State -6 -105- 4 L
Utah +3 -105- 3 L
Parlay L

-1.5 even

overall not horrible. lose 1.5 but capped the games pretty horibbly. Orlando 1st Q, I probably shouldnt have bet. The full game line was way overvalued despite the spot and I tried to avoid it with just the 1st Q, but that was also overvalued with heavy juice.
Utah- I had a bad feeling, but refused to eat juice. Bad play from the start and I paid for it.
GS- no playmakers. They can end the season 0-5
Indi- feel good about it. They're definitely still trying and I'll take a good look at them for their final 3 home games vs det clev and milw. Maybe even on the road getting too many on Friday vs an atlanta squad that should just fold with nothing to play for but rest
SA- might look the fade them with my warriors... Pretty hard, but with pop giving td 20 minutes on b2bs it seems, and it being gs's final home game, I can see it
denver/okc- pretty much how i imagined. Didnt need that scare, but okc still covered, and denver still hasnt met much adversity. Looking forward for april 15 and the playoffs when they should suck on the road
denver- I might be interested in denver 2m..
OKC- friday last home game vs charlotte looks like gold
 
My friend all you need is a little tweaking--

If i told you it is possible for you to eliminate losers and only pick your winners, no one will believe me, but it can happen...

You just need to think deeper my friend-- I was monitoring your picks and thought processes very closely and I noticed that subconsciously you already know which picks you are going to lose for sure. You also know which picks you are confident in and should win.

You once asked a question which was how many games does a pro BET-- They dont bet this many, but what they can do is pick LOSERS---

If you can pick LOSERS, you can be great in this game, that is the KEY, I can pick losers very easily and I stay away from the all--

More importantly knowing WHAT MAKES A LOSER-- Its the same thing in life with woman, you can pick the LOSER woman beacuse they have the same traits and do the same things--
Losers here are the same also, they also usually have the same characteristics--
Imagine if you can eliminate the 2 losers daily that you CAN and you will be money in the bank--

It can happen trust me, I am living proof of this.

WHen betting this many games you are GAMBLING, you have to stop gambling and start putting your strong plays in and thats it, and you tell me that you wont be winning large sums of $$$$...
I dont even know you but I think you can DO IT for sure which what I read of your picks--:cheers:
 
thanks for the thoughts sammy. I should try to limit my plays, but I think I have an edge in all my plays. I do not think I'm going to hit all my plays, but like you've said before: I don't play for win% or records, I play for money. flat betting I'd rather go 6-3 than 2-0
 
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