Satyr
Paster of Muppets
On a solid run lately, let's hope to keep it up. Solid card tonight, been looking into a few plays, here are the picks/thoughts.
(I'll update my record later on)
Spurs ML (1.52 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Spurs off a 5 day rest, more than enough time to regroup after two tough losses against western conference contenders Utah and Phoenix. Popp's boys will look to bounce back here and get back to winning way, and I'd say their chances to accomplish that are very good. The hosts are still without Jamison ,and with struggling Oberto and impressive Tim Duncan in the paint the Spurs should dominate this clash. What Spurs have to work on is the lousy FG% (38.2% on the current trip), and create more open shots plus make more drives to the basket. With Jamison on the sidelines, Wizards had problems beating Seattle, but stepped up in the 4th to do the job, carried by a 38 point effort by Caron Butler, which was his career high. Arenas had another mediocre effort (4-14 shooting), and it's a bit far fetched to expect him to bounce back against San Antonio, a team he hasn't fared well against so far.
A much different and more demanding task is on the table for the Wiz squad against the Spurs, who are feeling the urgency after a bad run. Coincidentally, the Spurs had a solid game in Phoenix but still lost after falling apart 4 minutes before the end. Tony Parker has picked up a lower body injury but he is expected to play tonight so no worries there.
Expect Bowen and Manu to limit Arenas and Stevenson while Spurs' interior (Oberto-TD-Elson-Horry) handle Haywood and Butler who are both coming off great performances against the Sonics.
Indiana-Seattle (over 204) (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
We're getting solid numbers here, expected a tad higher line. Indiana might be a bit more focused on the D since the trade but they're not a team of a defensive mindset, if they get a chance to win a game by running they'll do it. Granger, Dunleavy, Jermaine O'Neal, all players who can pour in a bunch, supported by Tinsley who is their main rock distributor. Seattle is missing a true inside presence, and defense isn't their forte, and after a nasty loss against the Warriors (a rather emotional clash there, since the two teams were involved in an 8 man trade earlier this year), they will look to respond in a convincing fashion. Can't say I'm attracted to the spread, which is set rather correctly. I don't give much into trends, same goes for this clash, it's all about the line, but this one just has over written all over it, so for everyone into trends here it is:
# Over is 5-0 in SuperSonics last 5 games as an underdog.
# Over is 7-0 in SuperSonics last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
# Over is 7-0 in SuperSonics last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
# Over is 4-0 in SuperSonics last 4 overall.
# Over is 5-0 in SuperSonics last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
* Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
* Over is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Thoughts:
Boston-Miami
Heat should roll here, but 8 is too big here, especially since the Celtics are always battling for that back door cover. However Miami are on a 4 game winning streak, don't see them stopping here. The odds not worth it though.
Toronto-Orlando
Liking the Raps here, as I really don't think much of tonight's visitors. The spread is set at 5,5, I might be tempted to put something on the Raptors later on.
Philadelphia-Charlotte
Leaning Bobcats + points here, but I don't think I'll be touching this one.
Atlanta-New Jersey
Hawks should win this one against the free falling Nets, who are 3-7 in last 10 and losers of 4 straight. Finally the absences of Krstic and Jefferson are starting to feel, no one to fill their shoes. Lean: Hawks.
Let's do it tonight. Good luck. :cheers:
(I'll update my record later on)
Spurs ML (1.52 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Spurs off a 5 day rest, more than enough time to regroup after two tough losses against western conference contenders Utah and Phoenix. Popp's boys will look to bounce back here and get back to winning way, and I'd say their chances to accomplish that are very good. The hosts are still without Jamison ,and with struggling Oberto and impressive Tim Duncan in the paint the Spurs should dominate this clash. What Spurs have to work on is the lousy FG% (38.2% on the current trip), and create more open shots plus make more drives to the basket. With Jamison on the sidelines, Wizards had problems beating Seattle, but stepped up in the 4th to do the job, carried by a 38 point effort by Caron Butler, which was his career high. Arenas had another mediocre effort (4-14 shooting), and it's a bit far fetched to expect him to bounce back against San Antonio, a team he hasn't fared well against so far.
A much different and more demanding task is on the table for the Wiz squad against the Spurs, who are feeling the urgency after a bad run. Coincidentally, the Spurs had a solid game in Phoenix but still lost after falling apart 4 minutes before the end. Tony Parker has picked up a lower body injury but he is expected to play tonight so no worries there.
Expect Bowen and Manu to limit Arenas and Stevenson while Spurs' interior (Oberto-TD-Elson-Horry) handle Haywood and Butler who are both coming off great performances against the Sonics.
Indiana-Seattle (over 204) (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
We're getting solid numbers here, expected a tad higher line. Indiana might be a bit more focused on the D since the trade but they're not a team of a defensive mindset, if they get a chance to win a game by running they'll do it. Granger, Dunleavy, Jermaine O'Neal, all players who can pour in a bunch, supported by Tinsley who is their main rock distributor. Seattle is missing a true inside presence, and defense isn't their forte, and after a nasty loss against the Warriors (a rather emotional clash there, since the two teams were involved in an 8 man trade earlier this year), they will look to respond in a convincing fashion. Can't say I'm attracted to the spread, which is set rather correctly. I don't give much into trends, same goes for this clash, it's all about the line, but this one just has over written all over it, so for everyone into trends here it is:
# Over is 5-0 in SuperSonics last 5 games as an underdog.
# Over is 7-0 in SuperSonics last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
# Over is 7-0 in SuperSonics last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
# Over is 4-0 in SuperSonics last 4 overall.
# Over is 5-0 in SuperSonics last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 9-1 in Pacers last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
* Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
* Over is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Thoughts:
Boston-Miami
Heat should roll here, but 8 is too big here, especially since the Celtics are always battling for that back door cover. However Miami are on a 4 game winning streak, don't see them stopping here. The odds not worth it though.
Toronto-Orlando
Liking the Raps here, as I really don't think much of tonight's visitors. The spread is set at 5,5, I might be tempted to put something on the Raptors later on.
Philadelphia-Charlotte
Leaning Bobcats + points here, but I don't think I'll be touching this one.
Atlanta-New Jersey
Hawks should win this one against the free falling Nets, who are 3-7 in last 10 and losers of 4 straight. Finally the absences of Krstic and Jefferson are starting to feel, no one to fill their shoes. Lean: Hawks.
Let's do it tonight. Good luck. :cheers:
as Keeley on this pic. Like I'm looking at her. 
