NBA Wednesday, 11-22-17...

[brewers7]

NBA Handicapping Previews: A Summary for some of Wednesday’s action and first-blush thoughts.

Wizards (10-7) at Hornets (7-9): Washington comes into this game with 9 straight unders. The Timberwolves just had a 9-game under streak come to an end Monday at Charlotte. So I am quite sure this has a chance to be an NBA first. Can the Hornets end 9-game under streaks against back-to-back opponents? Charlotte has apparently made the adjustment with Nicolas Batum back in the lineup after missing their first 12 games.

After a pair of losses to Cleveland and Chicago, the Hornets have won and covered the spread their last two games at home against the Clippers and Timberwolves. Both wins were by 15 points or more, easily covering the Vegas spread. The Hornets have also gone over the Vegas totals in 3 of the 4 games Batum has played in. Charlotte has a chart-play to the side in this game because they have covered the spread two straight games after not covering the spread in 6 straight games. The Hornets were 0-5-1 ATS (Against The Spread) in those 6 games.

Charlotte is 6-2 straight up and ATS in their 8 home games this season. That record is diametrically opposite of their 1-7 road record, 1-6-1 ATS. However, the Wizards are better on the road than at home to this point of the season. Washington is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 ATS on the road, while going 5-4 at home, 3-6 ATS.

Washington is 12-5 to the under in their 17 games this season, including their current 9-game under streak. The Wizards are 7-1 to the under on the road. The Vegas total is posted at 210.5. That looks like a high number for a Wizards game to reach. However, the Hornets have flown past that number in 3 of their last 4 games. I believe Charlotte will cover the 2.5-point line and that this game will go over the total.


Nets (6-10) at Cavaliers (10-7): LeBron James and his Cleveland teammates have apparently figured things out. After a rough 5-7 start when the Cavs were blown out three times by at least 17 points each time, the talking heads on television started pushing the panic button about how the Cavs were in trouble. After all, Cleveland was dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. However, despite still being last in the league in defensive efficiency, the Cavaliers have won 5 straight games.

Brooklyn defeated the Cavaliers 112-107 on October 25. The Cavs will have some payback in mind tonight for the Nets. The same way Cleveland got some payback against the Knicks on November 13 at Madison Square Garden. New York smacked down the Cavs two weeks earlier at Quicken Loans Arena 114-95. King James and Kyle Korver led a furious fourth-quarter rally at MSG as Cleveland erased a 23-point deficit to defeat the Knicks 104-101.

I expect the Cavs to exact revenge and take out the Nets. However, I am not sure if they are covering the 11-point spread. Brooklyn has gone over the Vegas total 4 straight games, even with D’Angelo Russell missing the last 3 games due to a knee injury. Cleveland have gone under 3 of their last 4 games in regulation time after going over the total 6 straight games.


Magic (8-9) at Timberwolves (10-7): Orlando has fallen on hard times after jumping out to a fast 8-4 start. The Magic have lost 5 straight games by a combined 81 points. However, their 40-point loss at home against Utah two games ago accounts for almost half that total.

We do have a strong chart-play here for the Timberwolves going over the total due to their 9-game under streak ending in their last game. That 9-game under streak immediately followed a 7-game streak with no unders. Minnesota was 6-0-1 to the over in their first 7 games before going under 9 straight games. So, does the chart-play start up once again, going the other way for more overs? Orlando has been playing unders themselves, going under the total 3 of their last 4 and 8 of their last 11 games.

The Timberwolves have lost two straight after winning three straight games. Both teams are 8-8-1 ATS on the season. The T-Wolves are favored by 7 for this game. I am leaning towards picking the Wolves against the spread.


Orlando / Minnesota over 215, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am contractually obligated to take the chart-play to the over for this game. The Wolves 9-game under streak was snapped after a 118-102 loss at Charlotte on Monday. So I am looking for this streak to reverse itself.

Good Luck.

Record:

24-14 (regular season), +$860.

Sides: 14-7
Totals: 9-3
2H: 0-4
1Q: 1-0
#1 Sides: 25-11
#1 Totals: 25-11


Picks

Sides: (1) TBD

Totals: (1) TBD

Note: I will post my picks and maybe have another play or two later this afternoon, around 4 to 5 p.m. EST.

 

[Lexington 125]

gl today, like that wolves over as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Morning reading...love it... I like that over as well a bit...glad it fits the criteria.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys....

Looking at other stuff now...Big board....

 

[brewers7]

Edit, 6:07 p.m. EST:

Picks

Sides: (1) Mia, (2) Cha, (3) Chi, (4) Pho, (5) LAC, (6) NO, (7) NY, (8) Dal, (9) Sac, (10) Bkn, (11) Phi, (12) Min, (13) Den, (14) GS

Totals: (1) Min ov, (2) Pho un, (3) Den ov, (4) Cha ov, (5) Mia un, (6) GS ov, (7) NY un, (8) Dal un, (9) Chi un, (10) Sac un, (11) LAC un, (12) Phi un, (13) NO un, (14) Bkn un


Notes: I cannot remember picking this many bad teams on one slate. That does not mean they will not cover and/or win, but just saying.

I forgot to mention that the Cavaliers are 0-7-1 ATS at Home this year. The Nets are 4-4 ATS on the road. Cleveland is 4-4 to the under at home in regulation time or 5-3 to the over at home including overtime.

The Trail Blazers have gone under 8 straight games and are 13-4 to the under this season. Philly is 10-6 to the over this season and rank #4 in pace while Portland ranks #24 in pace. Two conflicting styles here for sure. Damian Lillard is nursing a sprained ankle but is probable. The Sixers have covered 11 of their last 13 games and are 5-1 ATS at home this season. Portland is 3-2-1 ATS on the road.

This feels like a must-win game for the Clippers after Patrick Beverley called out the team publicly. Los Angeles 6-2 to the under in regulation time on the road this season. However, Atlanta 4-1-1 to the over at home this year. Beverley out though after surgery.

I do not know if this Knicks team is good enough to beat Toronto this season. However, I do know that New York is 8-3 at home and the Raptors are 5-4 on the road. Furthermore, I know that this is a “short revenge angle” for the Knicks after Toronto smoked NY 5 days ago at the Air Canada Centre 107-84.

I honestly thought the Mavericks would beat the Celtics straight up on Monday before they played that game. I did not bet the Mavs and I am not sure why. However, I am glad I did not bet the game as Boston rallied from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to send the game to overtime where they actually covered the 6.5-point spread. I would have been livid.

Tonight we have a Miami team who has been horrible at home (3-5 straight up and 0-6-2 ATS) and they already lost to Boston at home 96-90 on October 28. The Celtics are 9-1 straight up and ATS on the road. Yet we have Boston only laying 1.5 points. Call me a sucker, but I am picking the Heat to win this game.

I am torn a bit on this Golden State game. Kevin Durant is probable, so I love the over despite OKC being an under team this year. The Warriors get up for games like this. Golden State seems to play better whenever there is more media attention involved. The Thunder have lost two straight games so are in bounce-back mode, but I still am picking the Warriors and the over.

Denver has been a flaky, unpredictable team this season. Houston has steamrolled their last two opponents since Chris Paul returned from injury. Paul Milsap is out for three months for the Nuggets as he had surgery to fix a torn ligament in his wrist. I think Denver may play faster without Milsap, so I like the over in this game.

Dallas has played very well their last two outings while Memphis has lost a season-high 5 games in a row. This line looks ridiculously low. However, the line speaks to the very recent performance of both teams. Mike Conley being out until early December for the Grizzlies is another factor in that Vegas line.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out tonight for Milwaukee. They lost and went under the total in their only game with him last season against the Wizards at home.

 

[pip2]

Broken record compliment, but sincere: thanks for the good stuff brewers

 

[brewers7]

Broken record compliment, but sincere: thanks for the good stuff brewers

Thanx....

Edit, 6:42 p.m. EST:

Adding:

Miami Heat +1.5, laying $110 to win $100 – I am taking the Heat in this bounce-back and revenge spot off a 25-point home loss against Indiana against Boston coming off a thrilling come from behind victory at Dallas last time out. Kyrie Irving had a season-high 47 points in the win for the Celtics.

Good Luck.

 

[number2]

Quick question brewers....
On ur chart plays.....do u auto play them once the streak ends? How many games to you play up to if u hit on the first play?

Thanks....

 

[brewers7]

Quick question brewers....
On ur chart plays.....do u auto play them once the streak ends? How many games to you play up to if u hit on the first play?

Thanks....

I do not auto-play them, although I wish I would have auto-played them this season so far as the chart-plays are on fire....

GS had a C6 and after their loss tonight, they are on a NC5 now....Because they are GS, I just don't fade them automatically so I didn't touch any of the last 4 once that streak reversed...Too bad...

I factor in other stuff...If you noticed, I was auto-playing Houston overs early in the season after they had 6 straight Unders and that was snapped...

The Wizards had their 9-game under streak ended tonight as Charlotte ended 2 of these Under-9's in consecutive games...

Portland now has gone under 9 straight...Too bad they were not playing Charlotte on Friday as the Hornets could kill off 3 in a row....

As far as how many games will i go the other way in a row, it all depends....The longer the streak is when it reverses, the longer I will keep playing the reversal....Depends on the team, too....If Houston has a long Over streak that ends, odds are you won't see me taking too many Unders in a row once it snaps because they are an Over team...

I am a situational / trend handicapper and I have a lot of angles I look at, which sometimes can be information overload and I just have to simplify things sometimes...A lot of times when a lot of trends clash, I use my gut, which has over 30 years of experience....What I really should do is get my database out of Excel and get it into something to make it query-able because I have a ridiculous amount of information in there...

 

[number2]

Thanks for the reply....
Think Portland under streak will end at 9 games too...they playing Bk nets on Friday and it's noon game....

I've been blindly playing the chart plays myself.....didn't keep record but I know I'm up at the moment. I just play for 1 game on the chart plays. Win or lose, I moved on to the next game. I've actually written down the records for all teams. I'll go back and give you the actual record when I get chance. I use blankets info as closing lines.

Gotta thank you for helping me dig out of hole. Your chart play help me alot.
Ive also use it on NFL...will give it a try on Baseball next year.

Also, what is a quasi chart play? Thanks again.

 

[brewers7]

Thanks for the reply....
Think Portland under streak will end at 9 games too...they playing Bk nets on Friday and it's noon game....

I've been blindly playing the chart plays myself.....didn't keep record but I know I'm up at the moment. I just play for 1 game on the chart plays. Win or lose, I moved on to the next game. I've actually written down the records for all teams. I'll go back and give you the actual record when I get chance. I use blankets info as closing lines.

Gotta thank you for helping me dig out of hole. Your chart play help me alot.
Ive also use it on NFL...will give it a try on Baseball next year.

Also, what is a quasi chart play? Thanks again.

It works in all sports, NFL, too, although with the shorter season, very few opportunities there....It definitely works in the NHL, even with the Grand Salami, because for whatever reason, you see goal-scoring outbursts league wide for a week, 10 days, sometimes even 3 weeks, and then BOOM, it reverses itself and you see a league-wide scoring drought for a stretch and vice-versa...I have seen a lot of streaks going both ways in the NHL over the years....Same with baseball, although there you have to watch the pitching matchups....

Quasi-chart play -- I have attached my NBA Sides and Totals charts for this season here on this link: Chart

Now for an example of a Quasi-chart play that you can visually see.....There are a couple of variations...The Quasi-chart play in its purest or most-recognizable form is a streak of 4 or more, and we will say Covers for this example that ends with a NC, but then instead of reversing immediately with another NC or 2 or 3, we have another C, and THEN the NC's start coming in....

If you refer to the PDF attachment on that link, and go to the Sides page and look at Indiana, you will see a perfect example of this....Go to Indiana....They had a NC4 that started in Week 3 against Philly and that was snapped with a C at Chicago...So this qualifies as a chart-play and we are expecting a C (Cover) against Houston their next game...But they had a NC vs Houston...So the chart-play officially ends and went 0-1, but the Quasi-chart play is now in play if the situation calls for it...And sure enough, the Quasi-chart play really paid off as they have Covered 4 more in a row after the "hiccup" against Houston...

Another variation of the Quasi-chart play is when a team has a "streak", although more accurately a "stretch" where they covered 8 out of 9 games and then a NC pops up...I often times consider that a "Cover-stretch" where the team covered 8 of 9, so that is close enough to a a good solid "Cover streak" that is about to reverse, so when the NC pops up, you start taking the NC against that team (fade them)....

A good example of this is if you look at Golden State on the Sides chart....They started the season Not Covering 6 out of their fist 7 games (NC-NC-NC-C-NC-NC-NC)....That puts me on alert for a Quasi-chart play when the next C shows up, which it did when they slaughtered the Clippers next time out (and it was a chart-play to fade the Clips that game by the way)....GS then went on to Cover 5 more games in a row, making that a VERY successful Quasi-chart play before it ended with a NC vs Orlando at home....And then it became a chart-play to fade GS, and if anyone had the guts to fade them the next 4 games, you had 4 more winners as that chart-play is still going....

Any questions, always feel free to ask....I will answer when I see the post and if I don't see the post because I started the a thread, then re-post the question in the new thread...