NBA Tuesday

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
My stress level is reaching new heights...I cant stand losing hour long writeups to SPACE!! I dont need any speeches about cutting and pasting...thats obvious! I am doing eight thousand things at once and rarely post one thing...so it happens were I get involved and cant cut and paste for whatever reason..........shit happens but on the best 2 writeups. It always seems to be my best work that gets lost..Fucking amazing...I dont lose any posts for months at a time and lose one in consecutive days nows!

Well I am disgusted to boot about my decision making of late. To not make a killing on an easy Monday Card is killing me. It boils down to my unit spacing and rankings whihc need to improve....So I making an effort a


> Orlando @ New Orleans

The earlier meeting had Chris Paul but didnt feature Nelson and Turkoglu. The Hornets just upset Wash but Orlando is a different team and I expect this to be more like the Pistons matchup. We all know about Orl style and defense the home team will struggle to score and I dont expect them to break 80. The Magic playing some of there best ball recently are still off consecutive losses to LAL and Pho so IMO they will be focused to make sure they end this trip at least 2-2. I believe they are 8-1-1 ATS past 10 games. While the total seems low I expect 92 -80 here...{Orl -6.5 and Und 176}

> Houston @ Dallas

Big revenge game for Dallas here. What concerns me is the fact Ming is missing and he was the key in the earlier matchup. Mutombo playing well but cant replace the offense . The Rockets have spread the ball around effetcively since his injury but they over rely(IMO) on 3 pt shots to fall taking 30 per game recently. Dallas under Avery Johnson emphasis sound defense. One thing I know about teams who like to shot the 3 is the will force it and not wait for good looks. So where do the points come from then?? Houston in recent seasons has struggled vs Dallas. Looking at the recent Hou revival I dont think ther quality off opponent is very high. They struggled to defeated teams playing poorly such as @ Denver and @ Sac recently. Even before they bad big second half surges @ Minny and @ Chicago. All these teams are not in the same solar system as Dallas. They got payback versus LAL and Houston at home but were less then impressive versus bottomfeeders Seattle and Memphis. McGrady despite perception is playing poorly. Last 3 games 12/31 , 5/17 , 4/16 from the floor and 3 of 18 from three. His FT shooting has been inconsistent with some good nites and some 1/6 , 4/7 , 2/9 and 5/10 nites... Its great he is getting his mates involved but 30 attempts a game with a poor percentage is not gonna cut it...

Had so much more to add but basically see Hou in the lwo 80's here probably 81 but not higher then 85. WIth Dallas at home they are agood for 92-96 so I will settle for 94 -81....{Dal -7.5 and Und 181}

> Cle @ Seattle

This game should feature alot of offense. Hughes is out and neither team seems to have an answer for Lebron or Allen. Damon Jones could have alot of wide open 3 looks. With Seattle they basically allow 100 + points to all there opponents even shorthanded teams manage about 95. So the scenario that concerns me about the OVER is a 100-94/95 win by Seattle. The long rest for Seattle hopefully doesnt effect there jump shooting.

Cavs are playing better but still dont play well as road chalk. I have this game at closer to CLE -1.5. Not much difference but Cavs seem to start slow and Seattle fast so maybe Sonics 1st H is the best approach. Basically looking for a competitive game which worst case should have both teams above 98 points....with Cle recent struggles in Seattle and on the road in general (remember they were 3 pt dogs to LAC andSac) I would favor the home dog.

> Orl -6.5 -110 & Under 176 -110
> Dal -7.5 -110 & Under 181 -110
> Sea +3 -110 & Over 196 -110

Good Luck! More to follow
 
Plays: ( ranked 1 thru 6 units)

Magic -6.5 -110 {3units}
Under 176.5 -110 {2units}

Mavericks -7.5 -110 {5units}
Under 181.5 -105 {2.5units} might go 3units

Over 196 -110 Sonics {6units}
Sonics +3 -105 {2units} ML +125 {1unit}

1st Half :
Sonics +1.5 -110 {1unit}
Mavs -4 -110 {1unit}
 
Not even sure what I did or didnt write but I had the Mavs as closer to -8.5 or -9 here. SO my play is also based on the line being soft IMO due to inaccurate perception.
 
start using firefox nut. The newest version saves stuff you've typed in active text boxes (like this one) so if you make a wrong click you can go back and its still there.
 
NCAAB: do your best to get the best line..

Murray State +4.5 -110 {2units} ML +180 {1/2unit} -2.50

How does a team go from 40 to 19 pts..? 14 pt cushion and still lose..

> Simply have this line @ 3. Feel the last lose at home by Murray has created value.

Under 137 -110 Pitt {3units} +3.00

Probably as easy as they come....

> Think the Huskies dont have an identity yet and it shows when they play in hostile enviroments. They are a poor FT shooting team on the road and points I dont feel will come easy here. This is one of the higher teams for both in the respective situations..thinkin 71-59.

Over 133 -110 Indiana {2units} +2.00

Very lucky but rather have hit Murray State(ML)...

> The key tends to be comeptitiveness of the game. Well we all know the Iowa vs IU angle...expect a low 70's game from Indiana at home so fill in the rest.....

Citadel +19 -110 {2units} -2.20

They fell apart last 24 minutes of the game....so close..kidding!

> See some improvement from Citadel recently. Basically I think Citadel has improved and Davidson taken a step back since last year . Th ekey being Citadel playing well in those games...

Under 150 -110 Wyoming {1unit} -1.10

> Had this at 145. Just think we see BYU at best around 75 -78 points here so hoping its worse then a 7 pt game.

Over 142.5 -110 Boston College {3units} +3.00

Got lucky after the 1st half slowed to crawl after a good first 8 minutes..

> Well hoping Miami plays like they did in recent road games. Hard to imagine BC doesnt crack 78 here...

Over 153 -110 Virginia {5units} +5.00

> Expecting a close game with Maryland winning...and to be played in the 80's. Game should see alot of three attempts but really the key will be FT shooting...which I would expect 50 - 60 FT attempts...

Under 134 -110 ULL {2units} -2.20

> Expect this to be played in the low 60's..series history points this way as well...

Under 127.5 -110 Kentucky {2units}

> The key is my belief that SC will not top 55....

Ok St -4 -110 {4units}
Over 152 -110 {3units}

> Texas always struggles @ OK State and they are the better team this time around. Expecting a shootout.....

Utah +7 -110 {2units} ML +250 {1/2units}

> Dont like how AF has played recently...think Utah is improving...

>leans include Ptt , over 124 DePaul , and Maryland whihc I may add 2unit plays on

Would love to do a ML parlay with all the big college favs...Pitt , BYU , BC , DePaul , kentucky and so on...

2nd H:
Over 67 DePaul Even {2units} +2.00
 
Last edited:
Thanks Scourge , my routine is definetly partly to blame. Doing it so long a certain why I sometimes just forget to be cautious. I will checkout firefox.....Thanks bro!

Thanks Duy , my favorite thing NBA injuries....i guess I will have to assume he is less then 100% ...I hope...GL

Thansk Scrotum ...BOL
 
tuck321 said:
Any opinon on Miami Florida?

I have no idea what to make of Miami. Despite being lucky enough to do fairly well in there games recently. I think the line is about right (had -12) so the question becomes was it simply smoke and mirrors those few well played games they had. Early on I was fading them after King went down which really only backfired for me @ Umass..they were in a great spot @ Maryland...

Basically my opinion is that Miami did play over there head. They allowed nearly 70% shooting vs Duke and I think they are in trouble here. Thing is I no longer follow college as closely as I once did...thinking we see something like 83-67...generally Like BCs play of late....

My uneducated guess...GL
 
Good Luck , do your best to get the best line possible and this is how I am gonna roll tonite.......

SportsNut said:
Plays: ( ranked 1 thru 6 units)

Magic -6.5 -110 {3units}
Under 176.5 -110 {2units}

Mavericks -7.5 -110 {5units}
Under 181.5 -105 {2.5units} might go 3units

Over 196 -110 Sonics {6units}
Sonics +3 -105 {2units} +3.5 -110 {1unit}ML +125 {1unit}

1st Half :
Sonics +1.5 -110 {1unit}
Mavs -4 -110 {1unit} -1.10
 
Last edited:
2nd H :

Dallas -7.5 -120 {4units}

Little concerned about the late HOU run. The key as I said was 3 point shooting 4 for 9 and 1 for 11...McGrady wakes up for 29...while actually shooting a good pct..

I'll gamble the better teams wins in the end. Dallas has played extermely well in 2nd H especially 4th q's....I'll take them -1.5 for the game..
 
I'll take my chances look at every home game Dallas played recenty same M.O....the only reason Hous is in this game is McGradys 29 and he will disappear in the 2nd Half....

As far as chasing by this time in the year 4 units means nothing and its all made money...like I said I'll take Dal -1.5 everyday of the week...

I know your only playing big brother so thanks. but I dont ever chase...I had hoped Dallas was down at the half just didnt like Hou hitting late 3 's...to pull ahead...

2nd H College:

Under 73.5 -105memphis [2units}
Under 69 -110 South carolina [2units}
Big lead that will only get bigger...
 
Should be an interesting game will be looking to get further involved at half possibly.....

On a side note not a big fan of Irish girls but do love the Erin Andrews pics.
 
Would love to get OT in Orlando @ New Orleans . Would fel very confident that Orlando wins by 7+....Pargo saved NO so far
 
I took Orl -6 second half expecting a comeback, its too bad that they are about to fall short. NO has done everything but hand the game over to Orl and they couldn't take advantage.

Dallas has made an excellent run here in the 4th, Dallas is a much better rebounding team and while the teams kept it close in terms of the number of rebounds in the first half, you could tell that it was coming so much easier to the Mavs. No one likes to lay a TD in the spread, but it really looks like it was justified tonight. Dallas has an excellent bench and it has certainly come in handy tonight.
 
I am more disappointed in myself for the Hornets game. Woke up with every intention of playing New Orleans until I really started looking at Orlandos last few games...I felt NO would not score 80 points and they really didnt. Hell I even told ya it was Orl minus the points or Hornets SU....sucks when it doesnt make money though....Thats my fatal flaw right now....Good work on NO...
 
I would have played NO 1st half rather then game so I agree in the play of ORL -6 2nd half...Really sad offense performance and pargo stepped up in the 2nd half. I am more then comfortable with my score projections and if you told me that NO would have 75 after 4 quarters I would expected Orl to cover the spread....

With Houston and there is still time left ...so I'll wait to comment
 
With george and stackhouse now healthy the bench is again strong. Really just about everything I decide on playing has little to do with indivual matchups as I rely heavily on where I feel a line should be with overall play of the teams involved. Houston has just been very unimpressive in there recent road wins and to me there is no way this line should be less then 9. I couldnt understand why people thought it was cheap. Your hardly ever getting a SA, Dal , Pho at home laying less then 10 pts so in that regard 7 isnt very many....was Houston going to win this game straight up IMO extremely unlikely so the points become very moot....at least in my eyes....its very easy for the inferiot team to win the 1st half but its very hard for the superior team to be outplayed during crunch time ....

I just wish I was smart to realize the UNDER was attractive to anyone and I dont tend to like that....
 
cavs r just too big so rebounding is a joke and no one is capable of keepin bron in check

Big Z eating those jokers alive
 
Ridnour is slowly getting buried...minutes wise...

The size factor has to be overcome by solid shooting. If they can beat Utah then Cle's frontline is beatable...the SEA foul situation somewhat concerning

As for a 2nd Half LEAN I honestly dont have one....this game is a coin flip at he moment. If you play something go with a ML either way if possible...

If you feel Seattle is hanging around in this game then OV 97 is the play. If you feel Cle takes control then the UNDER...

Me I am just staying put but certainly disappointed I didnt like the 1st H over ...(100)...

GL all
 
well...left my original play stand on sea +3.5

hope sea represents at home for us


did u catch the end of the okie state game....wow...great game, better cause i took the points ;)
 
well seattle pulled it out....nice to hit late cap

so for the nite wit all said and done...up minimal...factoring all the juice and shit

i tell ya...still not used to all this shopping and forced to take higher juice then is necessary...fuckin pinny

catch yeah tomm nut

:)
 
well seattle pulled it out....nice to hit late cap

so for the nite wit all said and done...up minimal...factoring all the juice and shit

i tell ya...still not used to all this shopping and forced to take higher juice then is necessary...fuckin pinny

catch yeah tomm nut

:)
 
well sea cashes...nice late hit

yeah know, with this higher juice, a barely .500 day doesnt seem worth it...fuckin pinny

belive me, itll be awhle before i get comfy wit a book...with what they sell the lines at, i feel like im getting robbed at gunpoint

catrch ya tom nut
 
The book situation sucks...I dont what to do myself or where to go....really handcuffs me....

We lucked out there but hey I aint complaining....if you read back what I did feel was worse case for the total..?? Seattle wins 100-95...pretty damn close.....

Thanks Guy Vincent.....we hit despite Ray Allen not being able to hit a shot as Cle faced the same problem.....
 
Originally Posted by SportsNut
Plays: ( ranked 1 thru 6 units)

Magic -6.5 -110 {3units} -3.30
Under 176.5 -110 {2units} +2.00

Mavericks -7.5 -110 {5units} +5.00
Under 181.5 -105 {2.5units} -2.63

Over 196 -110 Sonics {6units} +6.00
Sonics +3 -105 {2units} +3.5 -110 {1unit}ML +125 {1unit} +4.25

4-2 +11.32u

1st Half : 0-2 -2.20

Sonics +1.5 -110 {1unit}-1.10
Mavs -4 -110 {1unit} -1.10


2nd H : 1-0 +4.00
mavs -7.5 -120 {4units} +4.00

At least I feel satisfied. Much better job with unit spacing. Cant complain about ORL cause I felt it was lay the points or take the Dog ML. Somewhat disappointed about playing the Houston Under...seened to popular for such a low number...then again who expected TMac to play that way.....

NCAAB could have done much better alot of the sides I liked and passed on won ..Ok State would have been huge..
 
Nut, nice job yesterday. Always look forward to reading your insight. I'll hand over some KNicks tix to you one day when they're good in appreciation for your help!
 
Back
Top