Last nite was okay outside of the fact I doubled down on Milw and they failed me. Doing a real poor job on the 1st quarter plays and will be more selective in the near future. When you lose you should always ask why? I definetly undervalued Camby 's effectiveness as he played well and Bogut was awful. Not to mention Mo Williams played 1/2 half only....the bottom line is with all the info I had it was the wrong decision...
<TABLE class=tborder id=post166210 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_166210>Since 1/1/07: Goal is +100u by Feb 1.
Sides/Totals : 25-16 +35.31u
1st Q: -9.26u
1st H: -0.30u
2nd H -2.45u
Team Totals : +11.53 u
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Pistons travel to Philly :
The first thing that I thought was line seems short. Then I quickly remembered the last meeting was one of the first games AI missed along with Webber and Hunter the line was only -4 (so maybe its not after all). Webber day to day status is forever a mystery. The Pistons will be likely be w/o Billups , Hunter and Dale Davis here. I have been saying Billups is a great player but his loss is extremely exaggerated. The Pistons were struggling with Billups and it as basically continued going 2-4 SU past 6. While the Sixers are now very deep and seem to be coming together past 5. Really they started playing well before that but were absolutely horrible in GS & Sacramento before improving. They only defeated the two worst teams they played in Portland and Denver but also had halftime leads in Minnesota and Utah..
Going back to the DET game in NY I thought they were way overvalued laying 5 or 6 in NY and they had Billups. Felt that line at the time was a good 2 points high and NY pulled one out in OT. If anything Philly and NY are equal in terms of line value strength. So I would guess with a healthy Billups this line should be about -2.5 Or -3 but really not higher. The fact Billups is OUT has to put a fair line for this closer to -1 or Pickem then. People speak on why this part of the season is tough and its really due to new variables being introduced in the equation when you already have a set of data to fall back on. WHo are the Sixers at this point? Truth is even the biggest Sixer Expert cant tell you cause they are undefined at the moment. While the same can be said for DET. They have searched all year long and Price recently said this teams problem is all chemistry. Which makes it harder to put a value on Det. Which by the way has been awful as road chalk this season.
So one could theorize that Andre Miller is beginning to make a difference. The Knicks were in a bad spot when they traveled to Philly so Miller wasnt really needed. Once he moved in the starting lineup it was disaster for the first 2 games and now they probably have adjusted. Not to mention a few days of pratice since they havent played since Friday.
"We got down nine points in the fourth quarter with like 3 or 4 minutes left, and we fought our way back, giving ourselves a chance to win the game," said Sixers coach Maurice Cheeks, whose squad is the only team in the last 50 years to play 22 of its first 33 games of the season on the road. "So, the effort that we put on the floor was tremendous. We just have to learn to finish those games."
In the last meeting the two guys that killed Philly were Rasheed and Prince and both are struggling. The backcourt was 9 of 24 in that one. You would like to think defensively anyone is an upgrade of Shavlik Randolph.
Do think the 184 total is abit low though....
Hawks have looked terrible on the road but Pacers have some injury concerns with O'Neal , Daniels and Tinsley. Tinsley should play but also should be less then 100%. The Hawks could Ty Lue back as well. Really not looking to get involved tough to not like the pts with the injury concerns but like the under. Thinking Under Indy team..
I commented on how NJ is banged up late last nite and this reiterates my thoughts: from YahooSports
In contrast, New Jersey's health woes probably won't get better. The Nets have already lost forward Nenad Krstic for the year and swingman Richard Jefferson is severely limited by a right ankle problem that has plagued him all season.
That leaves the Nets' fate largely in the hands of Vince Carter. The former Raptor, though, hasn't played up to his standards over his last seven games, averaging 19.1 points on 38.7 percent shooting.
Basically NJ is simply in trouble now that Jason Kidd is not 100%. They got Cliff Robinson back but he still is working his way backto form. Jason Collins is questionable and leaves them thin in the middle/post .
I have this game more like NJ -2.5 . Tough to use past meetings as any indicator cause they met in teh season opener and a vet team like NJ is in better shape thena young team with new faces like Tor. Then the second meeting NJ was inexplicably favored despite missing RJ even while Bosh was out. Tor should have two many big bodies here...
There offensive weapon is struggling but Vince is playing his former sqaud. Mikki Moore stepped upwith 18 last game can he do it again? Really have to like the under here with NJ injury problems and there lack of success in the last meeting as wellas recent low scoring games @ home...really like Tor just hate them away with short dog prices...
The battle for supremacy in the Atlantic Division is a stake!
Portland @ Spurs:
The Tony Parker cloud makes on think caution is the best method here. I owuld say all things being fair and healthy SA should be about -12 here maybe -12.5...We again learned in Sacramento how Portland simply does not use spreads as they once again won SU as a dog!!
I do think the opened the total way to low again. Hard to imagine SA not being at 95 pts here regardless of Parkers status. They approach 100 and the under becomes tough at 182/183...
Blazers seem to have a knack when they lose ATS to be about 2-3 pts off. meaning catching 11 they would lose by 14....rarely are they completely blownout despite often losing by DD's. So I have to wonder who covers this game cause it could unlock what happens with the total 98-84...??
Lakers travel to Memphis where they have struggled, dropping 5 of 6. I have to think even in Memphis the Lakers are overpriced as road chalk. This is a team who lost in that role @ Charlotte and on Xmas in Miami. You cant take much away from the Spurs game except they were murdered by the 3 ball ...SA 14 of 29 compared to 4 of 17. Now LAL on the road is only 33% from three.
So like the home doggie and while I like the under cause its in the mid 220's I will wait closer to gametime to decide if its worth it Or if it gets cheap enough for an over play!
Dallas @ Utah
I just dont get this line. First Dallas is 1-7 ATS past 8 in Utah , th ehome team is 14-3 L17 ATS in the series and as small favs Utah smoked Dallas already.
You would haveto think the 14-2 Utah Jazz team at home is every bit as good and probably better then LAL. So why the same line? Why the higher line that last meeting? Do people really think Dallas is as good as there win streak? They werent as bad as there losing streak so why would the win streak be indicative of anything. That train has stopped IMO..
On 2 days rest Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS! Even with Utah slipping abit lately I would still suggest they should be favored by -1.5 here.....
Historically in Utah this game is played in the 175-185 range which again makes an Under attractive since after the 4th Q meltdown you can bet Avery will preach defense. I would suggest Utah wins this game with about 95 pts...
On the surface it appears 14.5 is a helluva alot points for Seattle traveling to Pho. Then you step back and see 12 in Dallas , 9.5 in Golden State and the recent slew of blowouts away....however that doesnt mean the number is correct they just had to start undervaluing Sea at some point after they repeatedly failed on the road. So whil it could get ugly I like the points. Basically cause of how Seattle played in Dallas and GS. ALlen seemed to be on his game and you need a scorer to be on his game versus Pho. They also played well in Dallas but fell to pieces in the 4th quarter!! They lost 34-18 that quarter and hard to believe it was tied at half....I would not back the truck up on Seattle by any means...the line is accurate its all of matter of how Seattle plays......
Sonics are 4-1ATS on 2 days rest! The more competitive the game the better the over looks.....but no lean yet....
Will get back to Cle @ Sac later in the evening....my intial thoughts
<TABLE class=tborder id=post166210 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_166210>Since 1/1/07: Goal is +100u by Feb 1.
Sides/Totals : 25-16 +35.31u
1st Q: -9.26u
1st H: -0.30u
2nd H -2.45u
Team Totals : +11.53 u
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</TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2>
Pistons travel to Philly :
The first thing that I thought was line seems short. Then I quickly remembered the last meeting was one of the first games AI missed along with Webber and Hunter the line was only -4 (so maybe its not after all). Webber day to day status is forever a mystery. The Pistons will be likely be w/o Billups , Hunter and Dale Davis here. I have been saying Billups is a great player but his loss is extremely exaggerated. The Pistons were struggling with Billups and it as basically continued going 2-4 SU past 6. While the Sixers are now very deep and seem to be coming together past 5. Really they started playing well before that but were absolutely horrible in GS & Sacramento before improving. They only defeated the two worst teams they played in Portland and Denver but also had halftime leads in Minnesota and Utah..
Going back to the DET game in NY I thought they were way overvalued laying 5 or 6 in NY and they had Billups. Felt that line at the time was a good 2 points high and NY pulled one out in OT. If anything Philly and NY are equal in terms of line value strength. So I would guess with a healthy Billups this line should be about -2.5 Or -3 but really not higher. The fact Billups is OUT has to put a fair line for this closer to -1 or Pickem then. People speak on why this part of the season is tough and its really due to new variables being introduced in the equation when you already have a set of data to fall back on. WHo are the Sixers at this point? Truth is even the biggest Sixer Expert cant tell you cause they are undefined at the moment. While the same can be said for DET. They have searched all year long and Price recently said this teams problem is all chemistry. Which makes it harder to put a value on Det. Which by the way has been awful as road chalk this season.
So one could theorize that Andre Miller is beginning to make a difference. The Knicks were in a bad spot when they traveled to Philly so Miller wasnt really needed. Once he moved in the starting lineup it was disaster for the first 2 games and now they probably have adjusted. Not to mention a few days of pratice since they havent played since Friday.
"We got down nine points in the fourth quarter with like 3 or 4 minutes left, and we fought our way back, giving ourselves a chance to win the game," said Sixers coach Maurice Cheeks, whose squad is the only team in the last 50 years to play 22 of its first 33 games of the season on the road. "So, the effort that we put on the floor was tremendous. We just have to learn to finish those games."
In the last meeting the two guys that killed Philly were Rasheed and Prince and both are struggling. The backcourt was 9 of 24 in that one. You would like to think defensively anyone is an upgrade of Shavlik Randolph.
Do think the 184 total is abit low though....
Hawks have looked terrible on the road but Pacers have some injury concerns with O'Neal , Daniels and Tinsley. Tinsley should play but also should be less then 100%. The Hawks could Ty Lue back as well. Really not looking to get involved tough to not like the pts with the injury concerns but like the under. Thinking Under Indy team..
I commented on how NJ is banged up late last nite and this reiterates my thoughts: from YahooSports
In contrast, New Jersey's health woes probably won't get better. The Nets have already lost forward Nenad Krstic for the year and swingman Richard Jefferson is severely limited by a right ankle problem that has plagued him all season.
That leaves the Nets' fate largely in the hands of Vince Carter. The former Raptor, though, hasn't played up to his standards over his last seven games, averaging 19.1 points on 38.7 percent shooting.
Basically NJ is simply in trouble now that Jason Kidd is not 100%. They got Cliff Robinson back but he still is working his way backto form. Jason Collins is questionable and leaves them thin in the middle/post .
I have this game more like NJ -2.5 . Tough to use past meetings as any indicator cause they met in teh season opener and a vet team like NJ is in better shape thena young team with new faces like Tor. Then the second meeting NJ was inexplicably favored despite missing RJ even while Bosh was out. Tor should have two many big bodies here...
There offensive weapon is struggling but Vince is playing his former sqaud. Mikki Moore stepped upwith 18 last game can he do it again? Really have to like the under here with NJ injury problems and there lack of success in the last meeting as wellas recent low scoring games @ home...really like Tor just hate them away with short dog prices...
The battle for supremacy in the Atlantic Division is a stake!
Portland @ Spurs:
The Tony Parker cloud makes on think caution is the best method here. I owuld say all things being fair and healthy SA should be about -12 here maybe -12.5...We again learned in Sacramento how Portland simply does not use spreads as they once again won SU as a dog!!
I do think the opened the total way to low again. Hard to imagine SA not being at 95 pts here regardless of Parkers status. They approach 100 and the under becomes tough at 182/183...
Blazers seem to have a knack when they lose ATS to be about 2-3 pts off. meaning catching 11 they would lose by 14....rarely are they completely blownout despite often losing by DD's. So I have to wonder who covers this game cause it could unlock what happens with the total 98-84...??
Lakers travel to Memphis where they have struggled, dropping 5 of 6. I have to think even in Memphis the Lakers are overpriced as road chalk. This is a team who lost in that role @ Charlotte and on Xmas in Miami. You cant take much away from the Spurs game except they were murdered by the 3 ball ...SA 14 of 29 compared to 4 of 17. Now LAL on the road is only 33% from three.
So like the home doggie and while I like the under cause its in the mid 220's I will wait closer to gametime to decide if its worth it Or if it gets cheap enough for an over play!
Dallas @ Utah
I just dont get this line. First Dallas is 1-7 ATS past 8 in Utah , th ehome team is 14-3 L17 ATS in the series and as small favs Utah smoked Dallas already.
You would haveto think the 14-2 Utah Jazz team at home is every bit as good and probably better then LAL. So why the same line? Why the higher line that last meeting? Do people really think Dallas is as good as there win streak? They werent as bad as there losing streak so why would the win streak be indicative of anything. That train has stopped IMO..
On 2 days rest Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS! Even with Utah slipping abit lately I would still suggest they should be favored by -1.5 here.....
Historically in Utah this game is played in the 175-185 range which again makes an Under attractive since after the 4th Q meltdown you can bet Avery will preach defense. I would suggest Utah wins this game with about 95 pts...
On the surface it appears 14.5 is a helluva alot points for Seattle traveling to Pho. Then you step back and see 12 in Dallas , 9.5 in Golden State and the recent slew of blowouts away....however that doesnt mean the number is correct they just had to start undervaluing Sea at some point after they repeatedly failed on the road. So whil it could get ugly I like the points. Basically cause of how Seattle played in Dallas and GS. ALlen seemed to be on his game and you need a scorer to be on his game versus Pho. They also played well in Dallas but fell to pieces in the 4th quarter!! They lost 34-18 that quarter and hard to believe it was tied at half....I would not back the truck up on Seattle by any means...the line is accurate its all of matter of how Seattle plays......
Sonics are 4-1ATS on 2 days rest! The more competitive the game the better the over looks.....but no lean yet....
Will get back to Cle @ Sac later in the evening....my intial thoughts
