NBA Thursday

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Dallas @ Chicago :

> Can Dallas do any more? They have won 21 of 22 . They have won 16 of 17 vs Dallas since his AIRNESS retired including 7-0 @ the United Center. Chicago has not looked good since the Spurs Win. They needed a huge 4th Q to beat a bad shorthanded Milwaukee sqaud , they were overvalued vs Utah(like 6 pt favs) when the Jazz were playing well and not suprisingly lost SU , they travled to Indy a place they dont play well and lost after a slow start but spirited comeback , then they struggled with the Hawks .

Now all that Jazz has IMO inflated this line. The Bulls at the United Center have on of the biggest home court advantages. They have only been dogged at home to SA and Pho by 3.5. They defeated the Spurs rather easily and led PHO by 10 to start the 4th but lost by 1 without Kirk Hinrich. There recent slump can be attributed to lack of 3pt shooting and FT struggles.

I understand that Dallas just whipped Orlando but the Bulls are much better version of Orl. They are a better team then Miami who hung with Dallas with a gimpy Wade. In Dallas the line was only Mavs -4...okay Josh Howard was still out and Dallas was just starting to play well but still. Prevoius to the Magic blowout who were playing 4th in 5 they were 0-3-2 ATS as road chalk since the Spurs win.

This in some ways reminds of the Suns yesterday. They had a great situational blowout win in Tuesday and the next game there line was to fat. I have this at closer to -2 . The whole Duhon situation is odd but we would like to have him available. Dallas is playing well but I think its best game was its best road game inawhile. This team was only -4 in Indy and lost in OT...Bulls are better then Indy ....

Bulls +5 {6units} ML +180 {1/2unit}
Under 191 or better {lean}


NJ @ LAC

> The Nets have struggled on the West Coast. I think its now 9 straight losses. They have concecutive buzzer beating defeats. With injuries they are thin , Vince seems to dip off productin wise on backends as does Kidd. I dont think Kidd duplictaes last nites game. Nachbar , Williams and Moore played above there heads IMO. Elton Brand should have his way under the basket. Cassell is healthy playing some of his best ball.

I have this line at closer to -5.5 though but looking at the numbers vs SG and Sac which wer 5 pt spreads this makes some sense.

We allknow BAR likes the Under and I think the line is tight and will depend on how close the game is . If LAC wins by DD then it should go under say 99 -88 . If its close but not one possession close it should sneak over at the end.

Not sure I want to pull the trigger on LAC here cause this is the most winnable game of the next three for them. However if Vince was down after Sac I cant inagine his mindset after last nite. Tough spot 3rd in 4 away for NJ.

So leans toward LAC possibly some sort of ML play and Under 191....
 
bleh i liked it at 5 earlier but was too busy working to get a bet down. now it's at 4 which i'm not sure i can stomach. good luck tonight SN, looking forward to your college picks!
 
Just for the record, the Mavs won in OT against Indy. They have shown a propensity to come out of the gates a little lackluster lately and early on the dog looks like a good bet. However they find a way to win and oftentimes the 2nd half is a completely different story leading to a Mavs cover. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this game stay close in the 1st half. Will the Bulls be able to keep up with the Mavs in the 2nd half? I'd say its a tossup. If you want to fade the Mavs based on recent patterns I'd say the 1st half might be a better bet.
 
Just for the record, the Mavs won in OT against Indy. They have shown a propensity to come out of the gates a little lackluster lately and early on the dog looks like a good bet. However they find a way to win and oftentimes the 2nd half is a completely different story leading to a Mavs cover. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this game stay close in the 1st half. Will the Bulls be able to keep up with the Mavs in the 2nd half? I'd say its a tossup. If you want to fade the Mavs based on recent patterns I'd say the 1st half might be a better bet.

Good stuff Alby. Did I not mention it was an OT loss in Indiana? I dont recall what I typed. They have come out of the gates slow many a time lately...Seattle at home , Houston at home , @ Tor , @ Indy , @ Utah and many others but the past two in Miami and Orlando that seems to have changed. However I am still looking at 1st H play wanted 3 but not gonna happen I dont think. I wouldnt like my chances for Chi to have to comeback versus Dallas. At less then +3 1st H though you have no wiggle room...Bulls also a very solid 1st Half team...good stuff and GL
 
Touch I made a similiar mistake with 5.5. Suddenly was 5 was about to disappear...I would play above 3.5 though for basically the same amount...I dont think this line should be any higher then 3 . Bulls sluggish lately but have played well against the best of the West. Dallas hot but this is a big number versus a quality team...
 
This year the Bulls as a 6 or less dog su 2-10 change it to 4 1-8. They did not beat Atlanta by 10 or more and have Miami coming in 2 days. Dallas has better rest and no problem beating real teams unlike the Spurs. Just not seeing real value with a home record inflated by the nature of the East. GL
 
I dont look it at in the same context. All the times Chi is a dog is basically on the road with the exceptions I mentioned vs SA and Pho. Rest is something that rarely plays into my capping. Mavs are at the best on no rest and 500 on 1 day anyway. Do you think Miami is a bigger concern then Dallas? Personally I dont...There home record isnt inflated it there home spreads that are inflated. This team is laying 6 points or so versus Houston and Utah thats a bit much . You cant turn around and make them 5 pt dogs vs teams that are a notch higher....

I start with the premise of what does this line tell me? There are reasons why are lines are shaded some good some based on perception alone. Yo cant tell me Dallas is 8 pts better on a neutral court. They may be win by 8 pts but generally I like to have sound reasoning for a line shade. Such as DET being 7 in Char last nite....

Dallas is playing well and ceratinly capable of a 6+ pt win but Chi is almost just as capable of winning SU IMO. I expect a possession margin at the end....

GL
 
Early TNT Game:


Bulls +5 {6units} ML +180 {1/2unit} Wins +6.90/ 2nd H Mavs -3.5 {2u} -2.20
Bulls 1st H +3 -105 {3units} +3.00
Under 193 {2units} / 2nd H ov 97 +100 {1u} +1.00net
 
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Thats way to long out for me. I dont like Indy anyway. I did parlay Wash U with LAC and then Det U with LAC....
 
Looking at the half line how can the beg you to take Dal -3.5...would have expected -4.5....seems shady.

1unit on the over to middle my total o96.5

Not sure I will bite on the Mavs 2nd H?
 
you should middle your under with a 2h hova 96.5 you might hit both
 
Thanks for the looking out though Cake! BOL!

Bets4bucks...I had to go 2 units myself or I owuld be sick if Chi wilted in another 2nd H. Just seems strange and as I type steamed to -4. Still with a history of sluggish starts and strong finishes vs a history of strong starts and 2nd H disappearing acts how can one not! BOL
 
Late game :

LAC -6 {5units}
1st Half -3.5 {3units}+3.00

> NJ has to be somewhat flat here after consecutive tough games that they blew . Flat emotionally , mentally and phyiscally. The line is where it should be IMO and well if LAC watches any game tape they should know pound the ball down low!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hoping to make a 2nd H under play cause I think this number is tight...

I think in a sense the books have set us up with the Nets recent fat lines. Now they are in a bad spot and they look like they are getting to many points....not so fast.....
 
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Me to Cake....

2nd H
Under 97 NJN {3units}

> Simple premise large margin that I dont see decreasing and that slows the game down at the end unlike in Chi were you had 58 fourth quarter points
 
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