NBA Thursday

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Billivy

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Houston +3.5 (440 to win 400)
Orlando -3 (riding that public wave) (440 to win 400)

Houston/Golden State under 196 (220 to win 200)
Orlando/Charlotte under 180.5 (220 to win 200)
Spurs/NO under 180 (220 to win 200)


I like every under on the card...soo i'm flat betting them in hopes to see a profit...

the sides are strong IMO...these are the kinds of betting situations i like being in, it looks extreemly hard (in my eyes, and i've been wrong before...lol) to go worse than 1-1 in sides and 2-1 in totals...

be back tommorow from work to discuss the games
 
Well this sucks as I am on the exact opposite side of you on both of your sides tomorrow night. Like the opinion on the totals though as there is good possibility of going 2-1 or 3-0. Well good luck to you tomorrow on those totals and may the best man win on the sides. Just kidding about that last statement, but seriously I can see the bet on the Magic although it looks too much like a square play to me, but why the bet on the Rockets without McGrady. This is my biggest bet of the year so far and I just dont see the Rockets hanging in this one unless they hold the Warriors under 40% which is highly unlikely as they have been clicking on offense and especially from three point range. That and dont you think this is the worst spot for a guy like Yao. I mean, dont get me wrong but when he is in the game he will dominate but can you honestly see him playing over 35 minutes at the pace the Warriors can play. All those reasons and I didnt even mention the ass whooping the Rockets handed to the Warriors last week in Houston which even if McGrady was playing would probably be enought to make the Warriors a play in this one.

This is the beauty of gambling as there is always two sides and luckily for us one of us will be on the right side of these games tomorrow. Best of luck to you Billivy.............
 
im with you sacjosh... im likin GS and CHA... gonna go heavy on the GS/HOU over too... GS scores a lot and never plays D
 
billivy, I know you will talk more about them, but I am curious about why you picked the UNDER in the Warriors/Rockets game. Thanks man!
 
Thanks Bill for Weds when I tailed on 3 of your picks and hit them all -PHO, POR, and SEA/CHI under.:cheers:

I like HOU but ORL has been playing like crap and I'll take the square side on CHA. Not sure about the totals yet but looking forward to your writeups tomorrow. BOL:shake:
 
GS may not play Defense, but Houston does. Prob. keeps them down below their avg scoring. Also if Houston does struggle to score, GS score may be up, but not Houston's.

Since GS is favored and the public will most likely hit GS up. I'll wait to see if I can get a bigger spread.
 
Bill: I wanna know your thoughts on Hou? I personally like warriors a lot on this game. I just think rockets are back to where they were last season with T-mac hurting.
 
Last night 4-2 (+$1360)
Season 77-54-1 (+$12,290)

...

first off, Houston is 3-1 St8 up on the road in Golden State since 2005. I feel that there is no greater motivational factor than when a strong team such as the Rockets let the loss of one player allow them to get down 30 points at home. They made a valliant effort at coming back, but it was too much...HOWEVER...the strides they made were impressive none the less, I feel they found somthing when they went small and mounted that comeback...They were makin shots, but they always do that...I'm talkin about how they pushed the tempo in transition off of turnovers and locked down a highly powered Lakers team with a simple zone defense...I think you'll see Van Gundy go back to that tonight to see exactly what he's got here...Golden State has a simmilar offense to the Lakers (strong foward in barnes, strong guard in davis, no REAL center)...i feel Houston will have some success tonight keepin the Warriors from running away with this one, and I see some decent runs offensively from Houston tonight, but when they add up...it'll be enough to compete, but projected team totals look fairly high to me tonight...

I gotta get ready for work, i'll break down the Magic later...It's gonna be a very public play, soo if you are gonna bet it...get it in now
 
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/25/06</TD><TD class=datacell>NO 68 - SA 84</TD><TD class=datacell>SA -4.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 178</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/18/05</TD><TD class=datacell>NO 89 - SA 76</TD><TD class=datacell>NO 6</TD><TD class=datacell>U 180</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>2/16/05</TD><TD class=datacell>NO 78 - SA 101</TD><TD class=datacell>SA -11.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 175.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/17/04</TD><TD class=datacell>NO 67 - SA 83</TD><TD class=datacell>SA -13.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 170.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/9/04</TD><TD class=datacell>NO 84 - SA 94</TD><TD class=datacell>SA -2.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 168</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
....this is how the Spurs play @ NO...that's enough for me to like the under
 
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/18/06</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL 97 - CHAR 83</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL -7.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 193.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>3/21/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CHAR 108 - ORL 102</TD><TD class=datacell>CHAR 1</TD><TD class=datacell>O 191</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/20/06</TD><TD class=datacell>CHAR 93 - ORL 104</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL -1.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 200.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>1/7/06</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL 108 - CHAR 92</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL -4</TD><TD class=datacell>O 195</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/15/05</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL 85 - CHAR 77</TD><TD class=datacell>ORL -4</TD><TD class=datacell>U 181.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Nelson and Bogans are both expected to play, but if even does there's serious value in this line...The Magic have a great history against Charlotte and Orlando is off of 2 st8 losses. They gotta look to get on track tonight after the short rest, this is a poor opponent, pride and frustration should get them to play their hearts out. Charlotte is gonna have a tough time competing with Orlando's edge on the boards...that and a dominant big man can never be overlooked. Howard will own the Cats tonight, and I feel that's enough to get ahead and stay ahead with or without Nelson.

ok now i GOTTA get to work
 
Billy,

As far as team totals go, I've already played all the unders, should I hedge that GSW/Hou under then?
 
GL Billivy, I like the play on the Rockets as well. I believe that this is a good spot for them to come away with an important road victory to start their 5-game road stretch.
 
lfhlw, why would you think i would advise hedging your bet when i agree with it?
 
those TNT games look like solid unders playing them also gl :cheers:
 
with u on ur picks followed u over here....i am up since i went with ur picks and 2 of my own yesterday only bet with my local so my lines are usually different....but got lucky with ur lakers pick for 2 units at +9.5....just want u to know i appreciate all the work u put in....it is amazing to see u and killa being this good.....
 
base on this

billivy said:
Last night 4-2 (+$1360)
Season 77-54-1 (+$12,290)

...

first off, Houston is 3-1 St8 up on the road in Golden State since 2005. I feel that there is no greater motivational factor than when a strong team such as the Rockets let the loss of one player allow them to get down 30 points at home. They made a valliant effort at coming back, but it was too much...HOWEVER...the strides they made were impressive none the less, I feel they found somthing when they went small and mounted that comeback...They were makin shots, but they always do that...I'm talkin about how they pushed the tempo in transition off of turnovers and locked down a highly powered Lakers team with a simple zone defense...I think you'll see Van Gundy go back to that tonight to see exactly what he's got here...Golden State has a simmilar offense to the Lakers (strong foward in barnes, strong guard in davis, no REAL center)...i feel Houston will have some success tonight keepin the Warriors from running away with this one, and I see some decent runs offensively from Houston tonight, but when they add up...it'll be enough to compete, but projected team totals look fairly high to me tonight...

I gotta get ready for work, i'll break down the Magic later...It's gonna be a very public play, soo if you are gonna bet it...get it in now
Click to expand...





When you say the projected team totals look fairly high to you tonite, does that mean that the totals are too high? I kinda thought that you meant that the projected Team totals were high enough to maybe take the over.....
I was just confused.:spank:
that's all.
 
law: ooo i meant the team totals were high, and i liked the unders....

yes i knew tmac was out...i watched them play LA w/o him...like i said, it's a bad night where the loss of one player causes you to get down 30 @ home to a young team like the Lakers...thats part of the reason I like them tonight, they should be very motivated to compete
 
Bill, does it become a concern when the lines move against you like they have tonight with Orlando down to -1.5 -103 and Houston +4 -110?
 
i never let line movement bother me...

reverse line movement is another story, but i cant cancel and i refuse to eat the juice when i see nothin has changed
 
Darn it, Orlando didn't play very good Defense against Charlotte. Or Charlotte got their act together.
Let's hope the tail end can come up big.
 
spurs-hornets u181 won caught a nice break there :smiley_acbe: :dance3:
 
yeah, I got the push for under 180.
but I took the spurs-0.5 (2H) and Under 90 for 2H, so both those hit.
Also took Spurs-2 (1Q) and Spurs Over 45.5 (1Q) too.

The Under 196 for the GS/Hou game is pretty much gone with 3:54 left and score 97-97. Just hoping for a split now with Hou+4.
 
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