NBA Thursday selections (+writeups)

[Satyr]

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NBA 2006/2007: 52 W-1 V-44 L +25.57 units
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Spurs (-6,5) (1.95 @ Pinnacle) 7 units


Feeling good about tailing the best team in the NBA right now coming off a day rest and getting Tony Parker back, even though he's expected to have his minutes slashed tonight.
The Spurs are playing some scary hoops, winning 10 in a row doesn't tell the whole story, the fact that their bench is playing some top notch D with huge intensity and guys like Jacque Vaughn are having their moments and taking the opportunity to ride the winners' bandwagon, this streak is a product of an all round team effort. Michael Finley and Robert Horry are in playoff mode already and I don't think they're cooling off any time soon.

They were facing a defeat for almost the whole game in Portland, yet they managed to win (almost covered as well) by hitting 4 consecutive treys in the last 2 minutes. Luck? I don't think so, we're talking 3 different players here, in order to lift your game to that level you need to be confident and have the machine oiled up to perfection.

The Kings, on the other hand, are winners of 4 straight games and are back to playoff contention, but are also facing the loss of Ron Artest, NBA's bad boy, who has been eliminated from the team due to another case of domestic violence. The rest of the guys are stepping up, but on the long run they will miss his effort, primarily in the D, but also on the offensive end, since Artest had several 25+ efforts in the last few weeks.

Since the Spurs are allowing league low 89.8 points per game, and will be playing on a day rest, playing against a team they had success against, I think they limit Kevin Martin tonight and win this one by DD.
Furthermore, Mike Bibby has ankle problems meaning he might not be 100%, and we know very well how Spurs limit opponents' rock distribution, just ask any of the teams they faced during the streak. The Spurs have shown they can cover games with ease, even when they're down by 9 in the 4th, and laying 5,5, playing on the road, on b2b, without one of their main scorers, you still can't write them off.
Spurs end Kings' streak tonight and cover the spread, whether they put the game away early or in the last 2 minutes, I don't think it matters.


Not touching the other game. I had a plan last night, pounding the hell of Bulls in Miami and fading the hell of them tonight. Guess what, I was wrong. I'm not pursuing the back end of my "grand plan", leaving it alone.

Good luck guys. :cheers: :wacka wacka: :smiley_acbe:

 

[CenTexGambler]

Go SPURS Go !!!!!

Good Luck SATYR!!!

:cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Good luck my man. We're doing it tonight :cheers: Spurs take this one:smiley_acbe: :wacka wacka: 'an_horse'

 

[Ally]

I'm on them again tonight. Good luck buddy. Hope your boys pull this cover with ease.

 

[Satyr]

Good luck Ally :shake: :cheers:

 

[tuck321]

Age old problem. If you are not sure what you like should you post? maybe not and I have not decided if I am betting this game but it still seems that this and most of the other posts I have seen all go on show the good stuff and ignore the rest which bothers me. Last time I looked that 1 days rest you are happy about is 5th game in 7 nights. Sac is 8-2 last 10 at home and at home vs Spurs last 10 is 4-6 su and 5-5 ats. I have heard correctly or otherwise they seem to play better without Artest and the Spurs 10 game win streak was against 7 under 500 teams and Toronto playing 3rd in 4 on the road, Houston playing 5 in 7 at home and the enigma Detroit.
Now there is no question Spurs are a very hot team but they are still a very tired hot team and while losing at Portland is a nightmare for them losing at Sac is---nothing much. Sac with Kenny, Abdul , Miller and Kevin Martin has plenty of inpact players and generally it is a sucker bet to lay this wood playing 5 and 7 against a team playing second in 5. If I play the game it would be Sac first half and then I might go with either side. GL

 

[Pirate88]

Gl Satyr, like it, will finalize picks later

 

[Satyr]

Age old problem. If you are not sure what you like should you post? maybe not and I have not decided if I am betting this game but it still seems that this and most of the other posts I have seen all go on show the good stuff and ignore the rest which bothers me.

Basically we work with all the angles or most of them. However we cannot point out all of them (I do point out "cons" and not only "pros" quite often really) but I still believe that if we are to mention every fact, every trend, every little detail we'd be writing essays every time, I don't think that's needed, since we obviously all have internet access and can find everything out on our own.
The writeups in the end are just there to emphasize what one thinks is important and will influence the game the most. You are of course welcome to disagree and point out the cons every day and are welcome to do it in my topic, I really don't mind. :shake:
Now let's get to business shall we .

Last time I looked that 1 days rest you are happy about is 5th game in 7 nights. Sac is 8-2 last 10 at home and at home vs Spurs last 10 is 4-6 su and 5-5 ats. I have heard correctly or otherwise they seem to play better without Artest and the Spurs 10 game win streak was against 7 under 500 teams and Toronto playing 3rd in 4 on the road, Houston playing 5 in 7 at home and the enigma Detroit.

5th game in 7 nights yes, but still a day rest with possibly getting Parker (who should be FRESH) back into the lineup PLUS the depth Spurs have which proved crucial during the streak.

7 teams under .500? Why not making it 8 after tonight? :smiley_acbe:

So Detroit are an enigma all of a sudden? I thought they were quite solid back then, I even backed them against the fading Spurs. The situation is different now, Spurs were underachieving for the most of 2007. before they engaged on this 10 game winning streak, and frankly I don't think they're stopping tonight. So if I think they'll win, why not backing them to cover as well?
Last time I checked a 7 point win wasn't a blowout and the Kings will surely be motivated to stay in the game even if/when trailing by 5 in the last minute, so fouling until the last second is surely an option.

Now there is no question Spurs are a very hot team but they are still a very tired hot team and while losing at Portland is a nightmare for them losing at Sac is---nothing much. Sac with Kenny, Abdul , Miller and Kevin Martin has plenty of inpact players and generally it is a sucker bet to lay this wood playing 5 and 7. If I play the game it would be Sac first half and then I might go with either side. GL

I agree, several impact players. However, I don't think the Spurs will just roll over here because there's no special rivalry here. They don't have a special rivalry against the Clippers either yet they molested them in and out.


The Kings haven't proven to me that they are a team to trust, just because they beat the Lakers in LA (huge rivalry there) (they had Artest shooting 50% and scoring 19 there (6 assists), also a 100% healthy Bibby (meaning before his ankle problem which came up against Indiana) who poured in 33) against a team that are missing half of their frontcourt.

They beat the Blazers in Portland which is a solid accomplishment but again, Artest was there (23 points (10-19 FG), 9 rebounds, 4 assists).


What happens then: they go back HOME on 3 days rest, and are in a great spot, since missing Artest is a good thing (according to most, they play "better without him") yet they have trouble putting the game away, being a "suddenly surging"(have in mind typical home team) playing against an under .500 EAST team.

Plus they had only 9 players in rotation then AND Bibby had a sore ankle from turning it late against Indiana.


PLUS (as SacBee reports)
Brad Miller stayed off his left foot that still has swollen tissue, and Kevin Martin gave his knees and weary body a welcome break. All three are expected to play tonight against San Antonio.


So if Parker is sore we have THREE players on the other side who could be feeling the same thing.

By all means, if you believe the Kings are the play, go ahead and pound 'em, I'll be the first to congratulate, same as I did yesterday in SportsNut's thread after Chicago were thumped in Miami.

Cheers & GL tonight. :shake: :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Gl Satyr, like it, will finalize picks later

thanks Pirate, good luck tonight buddy. :cheers: :wacka wacka:

 

[tuck321]

Satyr, I do not trust the Kings either. Bibby is probably the swing in this game. He might go 2-14 tonight or 10-13 and that level of inconsistancy disgusts me. What I am saying is that the situation here does normally calls for a bet on the home team. Taking a position on the Spurs could certainly work as they are much the more attractive team but that is a liberty that is dangerous to allow and i would much rather miss a reasonable bet than make a bad bet. GL

 

[Satyr]

same here, I'm not a fan of making bad bets, but I think I've explained my case in the two posts here on the topic, note that I wasn't trying to persuade anyone into playing the Spurs, just explain my own reasons for doing so.

:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

Good discussion fellas...

 

[Ally]

The thing with the Spurs that they will struggle against teams that are strong on the glass and can congest the lane. How would you compare the teams on the glass?

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL Satyr, looks good

 

[handy]

For what it's worth the Bulls lose two out of every three games they've played on the road this year. I don't care about last year or the year before that or the year before that. The bottom line is this is a jekyl and hide team. When they're playing well they're a great bet but when they're not buyer beware. The line tonight is so short on the Bulls again that it leaves me with no choice other than to believe the bet is the Magic. Yeah, many of us think Chicago can win tonight but when you really think about it the Magic match up well vs. this team and the Bulls are playing without rest. Playing the dog in this game really doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

[Satyr]

The thing with the Spurs that they will struggle against teams that are strong on the glass and can congest the lane. How would you compare the teams on the glass?

The Spurs have been guarding the paint very well during the streak, the best proof could be found if you've seen the match in Houston, the Rockets were clueless. Whether it's Elson, Oberto, TD or Horry, they're doing the job, they zone up very well and it's hard for a team to get any second chance shots, but also drive to the basket, hence the forced shots from the outside.

Up front TD has done a phenomenal job drawing another player on himself since it's a gamble leaving him with only one guard, as his mini hook shot has been a killer weapon lately as well. Regarding the Kings; It's hard to say how Artest's miss will affect their rebounding units on the long run, since they have several other players with similar roles (Thomas, Miller, Rahim, Williamson), but basically the Kings have been hot and cold when it comes to consistent effort on the glass, wouldn't expect a domination by SA but they should beat them down as the game progresses.


@renew: thanks buddy. GL :cheers:


@Handy: I tend to agree, got burnt on the Bulls last night and I won't touch them here, I haven't been the biggest fan of the Magic either, so it's a no bet for me, but basically it's either Magic or no bet, it's a short number for a road team in b2b situation coming off a blowout loss.

What's your take on the other game?

:shake: GL

 

[thecakeoff]

For what it's worth the Bulls lose two out of every three games they've played on the road this year. I don't care about last year or the year before that or the year before that. The bottom line is this is a jekyl and hide team. When they're playing well they're a great bet but when they're not buyer beware. The line tonight is so short on the Bulls again that it leaves me with no choice other than to believe the bet is the Magic. Yeah, many of us think Chicago can win tonight but when you really think about it the Magic match up well vs. this team and the Bulls are playing without rest. Playing the dog in this game really doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[Satyr]

lucky finish, TD sank both FTs, Garcia missed a 3pt. Ok had it not been for that offensive rebound by Martin no heart attack closure would've been in order, but hey, a winner after another blowout coma NHL night (thanks Penguins for that shootout loss :shake: ), not looking so pale any more.

 

[Austintx_05]

Middle City

 

[3gamblers]

middleeeeeeeeeeeeeee $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$