NBA Thursday picks (+writeups)

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
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NBA 2006/2007: 69 W-1 V-55 L +70.00 units
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LOL, an interesting thing occurred: I was +60.32 up until yesterday, and made +9.68 last night, which makes it EXACTLY 70 units of profit.

Somewhere around the All Star break I wrote the Nuggets will have a winning streak soon, lifting them up to well above .500, record they've been sailing around for a while. Whether you like their newly superstar duo or not, this team has played some impressive basketball lately, winning 5 in a row.
Their schedule is very busy at the moment, they beat Phoenix on March 17th (the Suns were playing abysmal ball in that game), then had two days of rest, beat NJ, again day of rest, now facing Chicago in Windy City, with Toronto (tomorrow), Cleveland and Detroit on deck.
Some schedule huh? It would be too much to expect they can win all these games, but I see a good chance of them winning this one tonight.

Chicago have played some very unconvincing ball lately, beating Boston twice, barely edging out Philadelphia and losing to Memphis (away) and LA Clippers (at home) are signs of an erratic team. The Bulls live and die by the jumpshot. As long as they're in scoring mode, they're fine.
But when they're in a funk, they're not a good team to back. As far as muscle goes, they have Ben Wallace on the glass but offensively they're lackluster in that department, while the Nuggets should take care of that with Camby-Nene duo. It's not so much the rebounding edge that intrigues me here, but points from the paint which should go in Nuggets favor.

I'm not interesting in taking 3 points here, it severely cripples the value and 3 points shouldn't be the difference if you ask me, if Denver manage to impose their game this one should be decided in their favor. Their chemistry has severely improved lately, especially in the D, and the Bulls seem to be in standstill mode, struggling with lowly opposition.
Taking the points would suggest a higher stake is in order, I would much rather keep it medium and take advantage of this nice looking doggy odds.


Nuggets ML (2.45 @ Pinnacle) 5 units


I'll add more plays later on.


Good luck tonight guys.:cheers:
 
did you guys do something with the font (made it bigger) or did I do that in my mind :D? Or my computer? :D
 
adding:

Phoenix (-12,5) (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

check BAR's thread for more info, I'll be brief. Sacto playing 7th in 10 nights, they just came back from a trip over the East, and they're hitting the road again, visiting Phoenix.
The Kings are done as far as the playoffs are concerned. 10 days ago they were legitimate candidates but now they're miles away, in terms of cohesion, mentality, and physique.
They're down two men, missing Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas, which makes them severely undersized, plus guys like Abdur-Rahim and Mike Bibby logged in for almost 40 minutes last night (when they lost to Minnesota at home), and Ron Artest will be traveling on his own following a trial earlier today.

The Suns, on the other side, are in different mood right now; they just clinched the division title, and are slowly getting back to their best after a few sub par games. Suns' sixth man Leandro Barbosa is in the starting lineup instead of Boris Diaw, which should add a bit of pace to an already blazing Suns' tempo.
The Suns are rested, they have more depth and are generally capable of covering this spread in one quarter, let alone the entire game. I think they gear up just enough to win by 20+ tonight.
 
Anti Sacto Question of the day:
Sacto had the lead last night for the most of the game, even up to 6,7 points constantly, only to lose by 6 in the end. Do we really think Phoenix can't beat these sorry team by 13 or more?
 
Anti-PHO question:

Does Phoenix want to beat these sorry teams by double digits? Or is it time for the top-tier teams to shift their focus towards staying healthy for May and June?
 
that would mean no top teams cover DD in March or April? Are Minnesota a "sorry team"? PHO beat them +18. That's only one, most direct example.

"want" or "need" isn't the question here, it is more of CAN these Kings hang with the Suns through 4 quarters? I don't think so, but if your answer is yes then go ahead and play the Kings. :shake:

I think it's too early to start dosing their game and thinking about the playoffs exclusively.
 
Well turns out this was the case when +3 would make a world of difference. But according to my pregame estimations, it wasn't, so no point in whining now...

but if this is going to take for me to lose a bet, I say ok. lol

CHI 4.0 Ben Gordon missed Jump Shot
CHI 4.0 Offensive Rebound by Tyrus Thomas
CHI 1.0 Tyrus Thomas made Tip-in (9 PTS)

loool
 
You had the SN jinx bro it aint your fault. See Killa didnt realize Ihad the Mavs Under yesterday as well.....Thats all I do is lose by 1 point...okay in all seriousness 88% of my losses are my 3 pts or less....
 
damn, what a tough loss...had it everywhere, single, doubles, parlays... all destroyed now :D.
 
That was A&M for me...

Lost an 8 unit middle and had a 4 unit ML parlay with UCLA....

It was a good call . If you cover 3 you should be winning...
 
You had the SN jinx bro it aint your fault. See Killa didnt realize Ihad the Mavs Under yesterday as well.....Thats all I do is lose by 1 point...okay in all seriousness 88% of my losses are my 3 pts or less....

Nah not your fault, just had to be that way, I had an amazing run for a while, and it had to stop somewhere, why not here, when I specifically said it's better to take the ML than the points. You know as I was writing that sentence it kinda struck me...

thinking...could it...naaaah it won't, Nuggets win this one baby. :smiley_acbe:

:D

Btw, can anyone tell me how the hell are the Suns struggling with Kings who are playing 7th in 10 nights, without Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas AND RON ARTEST, The Suns are outrebounding them 35-15 and it's only +5.

:down:

Come on Suns get me back my Denver money 'an_horse' 'an_horse' 'an_horse'
 
can't believe Nashville allows a late goal to tie the game, then allows another one in OT...that bites :D.

Oh well, at least I have Elftor.

elftor194-17.gif
 
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