NBA Thursday: Kings v Bulls

[Satyr]

2-1 yesterday, solid run now, 8-1 in last 9. Let's try to keep it up.


Bulls ML (2.27 @ Pinny) 4 units

A small card today and I hate going big on small cards like this. However there's one play I like. I think there's too much of Sacramento's domination over the Bulls in this line (Sacramento (20-26) has won 14 of the last 15 meetings with Chicago (28-21), including seven in a row at Arco Arena. The Bulls haven't won there since Nov. 23, 1997.) and with full squads (Chicago are missing Nocioni) I would think Chicago would be favored here, regardless of this East and West thingy going on, I rate the Bulls as the better team with more depth and cohesion inside the team. Sacramento are on a slump for almost the entire season, they haven't been playing that well, and now after winning 3 in a row they are getting too much respect I think.
In order to win tonight the Bulls have to get scoring support by Ben Gordon, who is coming off a few unconvincing performances to say the least, also Deng and Hinrich need to turn up a notch compared to their recent few games.
I think Chicago pulls a W tonight, despite being down a man. 4 units is the call.


:cheers: :cheers: :wacka wacka:

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[Satyr]

thanks DuY. GL man :shake:

 

[The Farm]

:smiley_acbe: Satyr..
Lets cash this lotto ticket

 

[SportsNut]

Suprised that you went this route. I do like the fact that for Chi to deem this trip 'successful' they must step it up here. One scary fact I found that as dogs of 4 or less away the Bulls are 0-8 SU and ATS this season . Which made my stupid Bulls play worse vs Utah but I thought Utes were due for a come down game. The Kings the way they are playing now winners of 3 straight and 4 at home I would have expected a little bigger then -2.5. The Kings domination really isnt much of an exaggeration since they are 9-1 SU past 10 including win the last 2 in Chi. The one this year was very lucky a late run to end the game I believe. With Tyrus Thomas being a mental case and attitude problem can he be counted on? With Noicioni out the bench is lead by Chris Duhon. Who is playing better but now Gordon is inconsistent scoring either 30+ in 4 of the past 8 or teenies in the other 4 . The rest Griffin , Allen , Kyhrapa , Sefolosha...??

Real tough call for me lean Kings and Under...

Good Luck tonite

 

[Satyr]

As I said, I don't give much into the h2h trend here, since the Bulls are the better team, with or without Nocioni. Gordon needs to find scoring consistency and Wallace needs to step up, but I think they're in a spot right now to do exactly that. Kings getting a bit too much respect here (more than -2,5!? ), up until recently they were the team with the worst chemistry around and now they're favs the same way as Utah were vs Baby Bulls? Doesn't make sense. Like the spot that's it. Gordon to come back to his scoring ways tonight.

:shake: :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

forgot to add: GL SportsNut :shake:

 

[Satyr]

:smiley_acbe: Satyr..
Lets cash this lotto ticket

:smiley_acbe: :cheers: :wacka wacka:

 

[thecakeoff]

weird line for that bucks-hornets game NO only laying 4.5 at home

 

[SportsNut]

Totally agree cakeoff. My guess is they shaded lower due to the OT game last nite which makes this 3rd in four vs rested opponent.

I am not sure I agree the Bulls are the better team w/o Nocioni. Especially since the same lineup (insert Wallace for Chandler) has played 3 times and Kings are 3-0 in those games. Neutral court I would make Bulls -1.5 but both teams have huge strong home court edges. Arco not the same as years past but still if Sac is playing well its not an easy place to win.

You dont think Utah minus Boozer is basically equal to Sac? They just were -5 to NO , -7 To Denver , -5 to NJN.....The Jazz caught two powrehouses at the right time.

Its a great spot for them but I think Sac is turning it around...

 

[SportsNut]

Kings are only 4-4 last 8 at home but lost 3 in OT! So 7-1 could be realistic had they been in an up trend like they appear to be now...GL

 

[eggnoggin]

BOL Satyr:cheers:

(and thanks for takin care of the mullets)

 

[thecakeoff]

Totally agree cakeoff. My guess is they shaded lower due to the OT game last nite which makes this 3rd in four vs rested opponent.

I am not sure I agree the Bulls are the better team w/o Nocioni. Especially since the same lineup (insert Wallace for Chandler) has played 3 times and Kings are 3-0 in those games. Neutral court I would make Bulls -1.5 but both teams have huge strong home court edges. Arco not the same as years past but still if Sac is playing well its not an easy place to win.

You dont think Utah minus Boozer is basically equal to Sac? They just were -5 to NO , -7 To Denver , -5 to NJN.....The Jazz caught two powrehouses at the right time.

Its a great spot for them but I think Sac is turning it around...

5th game in 7days

 

[SportsNut]

I am thinking Bucks and Under , Kings and 1st H Sac...not sure about the othergame lean LAL and Under as well...

Be back later to post! Thanks for the heads up Cake I missed that

 

[doublem9]

GO bulls!

 

[Satyr]

You dont think Utah minus Boozer is basically equal to Sac?

No way man, not this Utah. And I'm not saying that because they caught two powerhouses off guard. Sloan's boys have been much more impressive than the Kings, and Utah are actually one of the rare teams that have the ability of keeping their game at a rather high level despite the absentees. We've already seen them w/o Kirilenko this season, now without Boozer. They just find ways to overcome the shorthanded situation, a lot of it has to be credited to Sloan's rotation system, which relies on team chemistry. You can notice that by looking at their seasons, it's either they're contenders or they're awful. Sometimes there's a lack of talent there but not now certainly, Deron being one of the top rock distributors in the league (9.0 APG), a lot of men in the inside to rely on (AK (even though he's having a mediocre season), Boozer, even Okur, who is used as a shooter more but still has the size advantage, Collins to some extent, and moreover Araujo and Millsap who have emerged into players to rely on, etc). Utah are a team that doesn't lack size, and they obviously managed to overcome the scoring problem that has come up after Boozer got sidelined.

However, I'd like to stress that I'm not a system bettor, meaning "ok if team A was this favored to team B then no way does team C..."

Just not my cup of tea. Some cappers might be keen on such comparisons I'm a situational bettor myself. Of course that doesn't mean I have different criteria for same things, it simply means I am adaptable. I honestly believe the Bulls have the strength to win tonight, I followed the last couple of Sacto games and even though they won, I don't think much of that streak. Furthermore, they're a streaky team, throughout the season (my mate from another board took this out for his 1st half Kings bet, and to show the tendency of Sacramento falling apart in the 2nd half), look at their season form:
LWLWWWWLLLWWWLLLLLWLWLLLWWLWWLLLLLLLWLWWLLLWWW

Streaks over streaks. So this recent WWW doesn't mean that they're improving. At least in my book, and according to my estimations. While the Bulls I gladly faded in SLC, I will back them here at a dog price to a worse team than they faced in Utah. Kevin Martin, Artest and Bibby are excellent players, I just don't buy into this team's chemistry THAT much. Bulls @2.27 here just pokes my eye and I have to go with my gut. I think I have stated my reasons (even though we both know you can make a case for any bet on the card with this many trends, stats, info available), and after all my world won't fall apart if Chicago lose tonight. 4 units out of 10 isn't a top class bet in my book, as I mentioned I don't like betting huge on small cards.

:shake: GL SN.

 

[Satyr]

BOL Satyr:cheers:

(and thanks for takin care of the mullets)

no sweat man, good luck tonight. :cheers: :smiley_acbe: :drink:

 

[Satyr]

Kings are only 4-4 last 8 at home but lost 3 in OT! So 7-1 could be realistic had they been in an up trend like they appear to be now...GL

I just don't get this. How is 7-1 realistic if they lost 3 games in OT? You are the one who always says forget the "I capped under well" if OT occurs and the game goes over.
If they lost, they lost. You know that. So they're not 7:1 but actually 4:4. The numbers are ruthless. And btw, even more, if they are 7:1 does that mean we keep betting on them now? perhaps, but not at this price. I'm not the biggest Bulls fan around but I think they step up big tonight, and I'll be brave and say that Sacto will lead by 5-7 at HT, Bulls step up in the 4th and take the W. That's just how I see it after checking all the factors, perhaps I'll lose the bet, but this is what I think.

:shake:

 

[3gamblers]

bulls hanging on...

 

[Satyr]

yeh I hope they can pull it off. But my prediction about Sacto leading at HT is coming true. Man oh man is this one going under or what.

Go Bulls.