NBA thoughts and plays regular season

divol

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
Tried to follow the league as much as my time allows me, but it's not much.
So far my percentage of successful bets (on paper), suggests that fading me is more profitable that following me, but will try to do the best I can :)

Oklahoma - LA Clippers

Thunder are a mess. The only game I saw from them is actually the win against the Suns, but they still played poorly. Don't know if Adams or Noel will play, but it's more fading the Clips, than backing the Thunder.
So far, Clips won Thunder without RW, Rockets without CP3, Rockets without Harden and Wizards who are simply a mess. The only losses came against the surprising and good Pels and Denver.
Clips still an average team at best, probably a bit worse even. They are deep, but still... not a good team I believe... Their wins due to injuries on rival teams, made them a bit better on paper than they really are and I believe in betting against them today and if bet loses, betting against them next time.
Also, Thunder should be a bit better than their current record, on mere talent at least...
Thunder -2, 2.02 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!
 
сколько помню ты всегда ставить на гром,
как свадьба в малиновке
что такой влюбленный в эту команду
 
I am interested in the game over and if Adams does not play much less Noel as well I think I like that. Need to do more reading
 
Always nice to start the season off right foot...

Philadelphia 76ers - LA Clippers

Basically same spot as Thunder bet for me. Sixers are a good team, despite the poor start. They are still 4 - 0 SU at home (2-2 ATS). Clippers I still believe, not a good team that will finish the season below 50% record...
Sixers need the win and Clippers still a fade material, especially with them playing in Orlando the following night (one of the rare 3 games in 4 nights situations - all on the road) and if they win here (or even if they lose, but cover), I will probably be on the Magic the following night.
Line went from -4.5 to -5, but will still take it.
Sixers -5, 1.89 odds - 7 units play - Pinnaclle

Best of luck everybody!
 
Few more thoughts for tonight (no bets though):

I like the Cavs tonight. Denver always was a very poor road team and to lose on the road as favorites... sounds really like the Nuggets. They are 15 - 21 ATS in such a spot the last 5 season (as road favorites), but Cleveland - despite being bad - not that bad... It seems like they don't care about winning, but at some point, players that are used to be in the NBA Finals, should feel like they lost enough...
Still... it's crazy to bet on a team that doesn't want a win... so just a thought ....

I also like the Celts tonight. Bucks are red hot, while Celts are still trying to find their way with Kyrie and Hayward, but still... at home they should be firm favorites I believe by more than 2.5 points... Brown's absence can actually help short term, as Stevens won't have as much headache to see how to give all the players minutes they deserve.
Also, Bucks should lose at some point and on the road, at the Garden - looks like a spot to do just that.
Maybe will even take it as a small units bet...

I also think that Charlotte should be slightly more heavier favorite and Kings shouldn't be favorites on the road against any team, but not coming near those games...
 
The Kings are actually playing very well. I have 0 problem with them being being a favorite
 
One of the problems writing up only when you got a time, is that sometimes you get too selective...
Anyway, will try to continue the streak.

Philadelphia 76ers - Charlotte Hornets

Teams met just 10 days ago and Sixers won by 2 points only, despite being 6.5 points favorites. Still... 2017 - 2018 years been very one sided in the match up. 7 - 0 SU and 6 - 1 ATS in Sixers favors. Hornets are in still stuck in the middle and while can put up a show, on the road they usually struggle.
Sixers have very good match up against the Hornets and it should be an easy win I believe.
Sixers -6, 1.98 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
Ticketwindow said:
I am going to hawks and pistons game. Any thoughts on that game. Every time I play for or against the Hawks I lose.
Click to expand...
Gut feeling says Pistons. The line is a bit high, but this is the type of game Pistons got to win imho
 
Annoying loss, given how Sixers should have locked the easy win coming to 4th quarter holding a double digits lead :(

Few quick thoughts for tonight:

Rockets look bad. I'm not sure if they need just time or trades or just need to be healthy - but they shouldn't lose by 18 points against Thunder without RW and have Pacers tomorrow at home in B2B, trying to get the first win of the season at home (0 - 4). If Gordon is out, Houston will have a very hard time getting a win in SA.
Spurs without Gasol and Yag, but Spurs off two losses (including home loss) and had enough time to get ready for this one. Doubt I will play it, but I believe Spurs got some value here.

Bucks off a huge win against the Warriors. Perhaps a letdown spot, but numbers say that off a win against Dubs, teams are 9 - 2 SU as road favorites last 2 seasons.

Even without Paytong and Mirotic, 10 points line looks very short for Pels. Both teams play fast pace and Pels can easily score 130+ points here... Will stay away probably, but NO -10 or TT Over 119 points looks decent here.
 
divol said:
Annoying loss, given how Sixers should have locked the easy win coming to 4th quarter holding a double digits lead :(

Few quick thoughts for tonight:

Rockets look bad. I'm not sure if they need just time or trades or just need to be healthy - but they shouldn't lose by 18 points against Thunder without RW and have Pacers tomorrow at home in B2B, trying to get the first win of the season at home (0 - 4). If Gordon is out, Houston will have a very hard time getting a win in SA.
Spurs without Gasol and Yag, but Spurs off two losses (including home loss) and had enough time to get ready for this one. Doubt I will play it, but I believe Spurs got some value here.

Bucks off a huge win against the Warriors. Perhaps a letdown spot, but numbers say that off a win against Dubs, teams are 9 - 2 SU as road favorites last 2 seasons.

Even without Paytong and Mirotic, 10 points line looks very short for Pels. Both teams play fast pace and Pels can easily score 130+ points here... Will stay away probably, but NO -10 or TT Over 119 points looks decent here.
Click to expand...
Good stuff.
 
5 plays I like, but I don't have time to sort them out, so won't play any - so just thoughts:

I like Boston tonight. Raptors have few small injuries, that I doubt will help them - but furthermore, this is a clear home team series - with teams winning at home in the last 8 match ups between the teams (though Raptors are 7 - 2 ATS the last 9 games). Raps off two losses and will try to start the road trip with a win, but Boston already lost to them once this season and should have a bit more motivation, especially at home - as they don't want to lose twice to their main contender to make it to the NBA Finals this season.
Boston -2 looks decent imo

Wizards are a team that very hard to predict, but they got one of the more talented rosters in the East and three wins streak should mean happy locker room (their main issue I believe). Nets lost badly to the Heat, the first game after the terrible injury by LeVert and play B2B tomorrow at home. If Wizards start strong, Nets can easily throw in the towel and focus on tomorrow.
Wizards -6 is decent as well.

Sixers started Butler era with a loss and would like to get that W no doubt. Utah will be looking to rebound as well, after that 50 points loss to Dallas and have Boston on deck tomorrow. Both teams are motivated, but I don't like the way Jazz looked to start this season and Sixers should win this one I believe. If Jazz win and Boston loses, will be on the Celts tomorrow.
Sixers -3 makes sense

Memphis I rate above the Kings, despite having both teams probably start the season a bit better than anyone expected. The line is a bit high, but Kings on the road, will lose by double digits more often than not I believe, at least this season.
Memphis -6.5

Wolves at home, will try their best to continue the streak of wins of the home team in this series against the Blazers. The motivation is there, the talent is there and Blazers play solid basketball, but shouldn't be favorites here imo.
Wolves to win looks decent as well.

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
Was really without any free time and the few moments I had, didn't see anything I liked. Can't say have a lot of time to cap tonight, but one bet caught my eye:

New Orleans - LA Clippers

Healthy Pels are better than healthy Clips and I would make them -2 on a neutral court. Davis was out with some injuries and that been a big problem for the Pels. Clips are one of the deeper teams in the league and used injures in some teams and bad form in other teams to be tied for the first place, but I believe that unless injuries hurt NO, they will finish above the Clippers.
Not a must win, but I think that NO will be motivated tonight.
Clips are deep and well coached (Doc is much better coach for such a team, than a team with CP3 and Blake), but talent wins games in the end.
NO -2.5, 1.95 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!
 
Obviously lost the last bet...

Been really busy lately, but tonight had few moments - so few quick thoughts:

NY Knicks - Atlanta Hawks

Not sure if I can place money on a team that seems to be focused mainly on getting 1st draft pick, but Knicks actually look not too bad from time to time and at home, they should be clear favorites against the Hawks, that are probably the worst team in the league.
Knicks -3?

Boston - Milwaukee

I get that Horford and Baynes - two main Centers are out, but still... Bucks played in TD Garden 5 times in 2018 and they are 0 - 5 SU... Can they win? Sure. Do they want to win, no doubt. But see no reason not to back Boston here. Actually one reason - the line... Was expecting to see Boston -2 here or -2.5... the line is very strange.... Especially since Boston off two losses will come very motivated as well...
Boston to win?

Portland - Utah

I know that Utah was red hot lately and Portland cooled off a bit, but Utah also cooled off in the last few games and Portland actually on a 3 wins streak. Hate betting on or against Portland, since I lost too much on them, but it's strange to see them -2 only, at home, where they are 12 - 4 against team that is in their level more or less and against mediocre road team like the Jazz...
Blazers -2?
 
Boston - Philadelphia

I wanted to back Boston against Charlotte, after their players meeting, but didn't have the time to check the game. Tonight, I still like Boston at home, to win and cover against the Sixers as well.
First of all, Boston always been a good home team, that recently got a few surprising losses at home (at least to me).
Second, Boston at home, owned the Sixers the last season and a half and I think that Celtics will be motivated to prove that they belong in that Eastern top and will do their best to win this one, after the home loss to the Bucks the other day.
Sixers are 16 - 3 at home, but only 6 - 9 on the road and Boston saw them demolishing the Raptors the other day and it's Boston chance to make the claim that they are still the team to beat in the East.
Boston -4, 1.92 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!
 
Good luck Divol....I believe you are correct, C's concentrating on team play offensively and being tough on the defensive end and that is a recipe for success for them (any team really) Tatum is still a problem as he has yet to get over his "training" with Kobe of which he came out thinking that he has to up his brand by shooting whenever he wants. Brad is countering by benching him whenever he goes into that mode. So irritating. He doesn't get that he is more valuable to himself when he plays winning ball not Tatum ball. Regardless they should win fairly easily today I think
 
Like two plays today, but hardly had any times to check anything, so thoughts only:

Charlotte - Brooklyn

I realize that Nets are mad hot right now, with 9 - 1 the last 10 games, but that's just the thing. Suddenly Charlotte can switch places with the Nets, if Nets win. Charlotte are healthy and they are the better team. Very dangerous to go against hot teams, but I like Charlotte winning this one.
Charlotte -4.5 is the stronger lean tonight

Wizards - Bulls

Wizards are 2 - 8 the last 10 games and have tons of injuries, but overall - Beal and Wall shine when one of them is injured. Porter and Morris are big misses, but Chicago is also a mess.
Very hard to back crappy teams as favorites, but it feels that the injuries are not as important that Wizards are only 4.5 points favorites.
Wizards -4.5 is the second lean tonight.

Also small lean for the Spurs, that shouldn't be that big dogs in Denver, given the fact that all injured players still out for the Nuggets.
 
Not enough for "official" play, but I like Boston and Memphis tonight (bet both as medium bets for myself).

Boston probably without Kyrie, but with him and maybe Morris both out, it can actually help Celts with the rotation. Anyway, they should beat Dallas tonight and 5 points not enough on paper.
Dallas a bit unpredictable, so not an "official" play.
Boston -5 looks nice tonight

Memphis with home loss to Pistons and locker room altercation and probably without Conley - it's a game that Memphis should respond. The blamed bench players should get playing time and should prove they deserve it. Temple should also finally prove he deserves to be a starter... Nets are well coached and surprising team, but this is the kind of team that at home, any team that wants to prove itself, should beat.
But such a problem in a locker room can destroy a team as well, so not in a hurry to back them officially...
Memphis -4 looks nice here
 
I like the Celtics tonight. Line is low and they should respond after Kyrie blasted the team and the tight loss to the Magic.
Been doing actually well lately with "gut" plays, but can't find anytime to check things so can't make it "official"...
Anyway, Boston -2.5 looks nice here...
 
Detroit Pistons - LA Clippers

This is not just another game and with both teams trying to get to one of the last playoffs spots (each in their conference), both should be motivated. Pistons are healthy and Blake will try to beat the team that in his mind, treated him unfairly.
Detroit is not a stable team, but they are pretty clear favorites in my mind and the line should reflect it (-4.5 or so).
Pistons -2, 1.90 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
 
Yep, Blake doesn’t show it so often any more, but when he wants to he can still bend a game’s direction all by himself. And I haven’t seen any sign yet that he’s forgiven or forgotten...
 
Even Blake can’t do much about it if the Clippers get off to an early big lead, so I am expecting (and betting on) him to keep the Pistons ahead in the 1st quarter...
 
I guess 1st quarter was the right way to go, you're right.
Strange... huge meltdown by the Pistons...
 
Two thoughts for tonight - no official bet, because I'm trying not to make more than one bet per night and both bets look equally strong in my eyes:

Sixers - Raptors

The rumor is that Lowry and JV were offered for Gasol and Conley and that Lowry was made aware of it. Not sure how he will react, but it can backfire on the Raptors in many ways.
Furthermore, Sixers at home are 21 - 5, while Raps are 16 - 11 only, so not really sure why Sixers such short favorites here.
In the last 9 games, home team won 8 times and covered 7 times in this match up, including 25 points win earlier this season in Philly.
I like the Sixers -3 tonight.

Charlotte - LA Clippers

I like the Hornets tonight. Would prefer to back them right after Clips win in Detroit, but overall, this is the type of game that Clippers can struggle with. No special reason, I just still feel in general, that Clips are not as good as bookies make them and on the road - it should be much clearer.
Charlotte -3.5 looks decent here.
 
Charlotte - Washington

Charlotte fights for a playoff spot, while Wizards are just waiting for the season to be over. Wizards been playing pretty well, considering everything, but Wizards have nothing to fight for, while Charlotte should be eager to win their first game after ASG break.
Expected to see here about 7-7.5 points line.
Wizards are 7 - 23 on the road, while Hornets are 19-9 at home - somehow the line is really short for me here...
Hornets -5, 1.90 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
 
I also like Thunder -4 tonight.
Thunder are the better team, playing at home and expected to see line a bit higher. Still, Jazz and Thunder are teams that are a bit difficult to predict sometimes and I'm not taking two bets on one night this season as a rule - so Charlotte the only "official" bet tonight.
 
Sixers - Blazers

I like Sixers tonight. No Embid, but still... should be favorites by at least 4 points imo and not only 1.5...
Harris, Butler and others should be more than enough to beat the Blazers at home.
Sixers -1.5, 1,94 odds - 7 units play Pinnacle
 
Sixers were so weak protecting the rim... be it offensive rebounds by the Blazers or very easy layups and baskets...
Didn't expect such a poor effort...
 
Boston - Denver

Boston should try and fight for that 4th spot in the East and only a game behind the Pacers. They are 26 - 10 at home and after two wins in a row.
Denver won three in a row, they barely won against Dallas and Indiana and on the road, they are only 16 - 16 (30 - 6 at home).
Bottom line, Boston should win this one I believe. Hayward is out, but it shouldn't effect Celts too much I believe.
They lost earlier in the season in Denver, but this should be their game to win.
Do worried a bit about the spread, since it can easily go to the wire, but I think that Denver are in a small slide in their game, that wasn't shown, due to poor rivals.
Boston -3.5, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
5 - 4 in the regular season, so very slim profit (didn't count the exact numbers). Had very busy last six months, so hardly had the time to cap. Been making many bets based on gut feeling, but as always... mixed results :)

Overall, was very interesting and good season - fun to watch (at least the very few games I actually managed to watch).

Hope those that entered the thread and read the posts, enjoyed them. Will try to be more involved in the playoffs, though not sure if I will be able to...

Best of luck in the postseason everybody!
 
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