NBA Sunday play...

brewers7

Pretty much a regular
NBA Preview: LeBron James and the Cavs are hoping to finish off Toronto in Game 4.

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (58-31) at #3 Toronto Raptors (55-36), Sunday, 3:30 p.m. EST

Line: Cavaliers -7. Total 213.

Series: Cavaliers lead 3-0.

LeBron James is just killing it this postseason.

LeBron is scoring 36.3 points per game, dishing out 5 assists per game, while grabbing 8 rebounds per game against Toronto. James is averaging 32.1 points per game, 7.7 assists per game and 7.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs.

James’ numbers are even more staggering in the win column for his team in the playoffs. He is now a staggering 31-4 in the first three rounds of the playoffs since returning to Cleveland for the 2014-15 season. James’ first-round series record is 12-0 and his record for first-round games is an astounding 48-7. He has won his last 21 straight first-round games. LeBron is now 43-21 in the second round for his career and 27-7 in the second round since his first season with Miami.

James owns the Raptors this season. He has won all six meaningful games against Toronto this year. Toronto’s Kyle Lowry is listed as doubtful for Game 4. So the only question left in this series is whether LeBron and the Cavaliers can close out the Raptors with a sweep.

James has closed out seven consecutive series when his team has a 3-0 lead. The last time LeBron did not close out a sweep in Game 4 was when he lost 89-87 to the New York Knicks on May 6, 2012. James was a member of the Miami Heat during that first round series. LeBron is 4-2-1 ATS (Against The Spread) in his last seven close-out games. However, he is 0-2-1 ATS in his last three opportunities.

These close-out stats made me wonder how all teams do in this situational spot. So I went back and found a post I made 11 years ago on a forum and updated the last 11 seasons.

Here is what I found (SU is straight up):

Checking on brewers7’s NBA hypothesis that the Teams that have a 3-0 series lead will close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, I found the following data (SU & ATS):

2016-17: 2-0 SU & 1-0-1 ATS

2015-16: 3-0 SU & 1-2 ATS

2014-15: 4-4 SU & ATS

2013-14: 1-1 SU & ATS

2012-13: 3-1 SU & ATS

2011-12: 3-1 SU & 1-3 ATS

2010-11: 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS

2009-10: 4-1 SU & ATS

2008-09: 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS

2007-08: 1-1 SU & ATS

2006-07: 4-1 SU & 1-2-2 ATS

2005-06: 1-0 SU & ATS

2004-05: 3-1 SU & ATS

2003-04: 3-0 SU & ATS

2002-03: 2-1 SU & ATS

2001-02: 1-0 SU & ATS

2000-01: 2-1 SU & ATS

1999-00: 0-2 SU & ATS

1998-99: 4-0 SU & ATS

1997-98: 1-0 SU & ATS

1996-97: 0-1 SU & ATS

1995-96: 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS

1994-95: 1-0 SU & ATS

1993-94: 0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS

1992-93: 1-0 SU & ATS

1991-92: 0-0

1990-91: 1-0 SU & ATS

1989-90: 0-0

1988-89: 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS

1987-88: 0-0

1986-87: 1-1 SU & ATS

1985-86: 1-1 SU & ATS

Last 32 years: 57-24 SU (70.4%) and 48-28-5 ATS (63.2%).

Vegas has been adjusting these lines upward over the last seven years. Teams are still winning the games straight up at a clip of 16-7 the past six years. However, the ATS record of the teams in this situational spot is 11-11-1 the last six seasons.

Cleveland will close this series out. However, the Vegas line has jumped up to 7 points already. I probably should not let that line bother me, but I am going to pass as I just do not want to give the 7-point chalk.

Toronto coach Dwane Casey has figured out a way to get DeMar DeRozan the ball in space and avoid the Cavaliers’ double-teams on him. DeRozan was a one-man show for Toronto, shooting 12-for-23 from the field and a perfect 13-for-13 from the free-throw line to score 37 points in Game 3. It was not even close to enough as the Cavs won 115-94.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love scored 16 points apiece, while Kyle Korver added 14 points off the bench for Cleveland.



#2 San Antonio Spurs (67-24) at #3 Houston Rockets (60-30), Sunday, 9 p.m. EST

Line: Rockets -5.5. Total 212.

Series: Spurs lead 2-1.

I am a little disappointed with myself for placing a bet on Game 3 of this series when I should have just watched the game. I mentioned my concern for the Spurs rising up after the Tony Parker injury and possibly winning the game in my Friday write-up. San Antonio did just that. Coach Gregg Popovich is proving yet again just how good a coach he is.

I was going to zig-zag back and take Houston to respond on Sunday to even this series. However, I am not confident that Houston is going to win this game. James Harden just scored 43 points and the Rockets still lost 103-92 on their home floor. Trevor Ariza added 17 points, while Clint Capela has 12 points for Houston. However, the Rockets have several players struggling to score points. Unlike the Spurs, I do not see Houston as a team that makes a lot of adjustments. They give the ball to Harden and either he drives and shoots or dishes to a teammate who launches a three-pointer.

LaMarcus Aldridge looked a lot better in Game 3 as he scored 26 points, while Kawhi Leonard added 26 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. Patty Mills added 15 points while Pau Gasol had 12 points and 9 boards.

I have no play here as I just cannot lay the 5.5 points.



#1 Boston Celtics (59-32) at #4 Washington Wizards (54-37), Sunday 6:30 p.m. EST.

Line: Wizards -4.5. Total 216.

Series: Celtics lead 2-1.

Washington has had double-digit leads in all three games of this series, yet trail 2-1 in games. In fact, the Wizards have led by double-digits at the end of the first quarter in all three games. Washington blew big leads in each of the first two games. However, the Wizards were determined not to let that happen again as they throttled Boston 116-89 in Game 3.

I expect Game 4 to be a lot closer. Boston now has the big bounce-back spot here while the Wizards have a let-down spot. Washington is now 29-5 in their last 34 home games. The home team has won all seven times this season in their head-to-head matchups. I still believe the home team can win every game of this series. I feel the likely outcome is that the Wizards will win Game 7, if it gets that far.

Kelly Oubre has been suspended for one game after bum-rushing Kelly Olynyk in the second quarter of Game 3. Oubre has not contributed much for the Wizards in this series other than providing his team with a spark in Game 3 after his incident with Olynyk. Isaiah Thomas was finally held in check for the Celtics as he took only 8 shots and scored just 13 points on Thursday.

John Wall led a well-balanced attack for the Wizards by scoring 24 points.

I think Washington has enough to even this series and get over the Vegas number in this game.

My postseason record: 13-4 (+$765).

My pick:

Washington Wizards -4.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).

GL.
 
Thanx guys and yes, I agree it is a tough card...DOGs are due to cover which of course, does NOT mean that they will as I like all 3 FAVs but Vegas has jacked these lines up a bit...

Still, if you go to pregame.com and click on the Bet% tab, you will see right now with 32,151 bets place on the Cleveland game, 84% of the folks are taking the Cavs...

I really wanted to put real money on all three FAVs, but have only done so with the Wizards...Simply banking on their home court prowess here their last 34 home games ...The old me would have taken Boston to bounce back, and they will bounce back for sure as I do NOT see them getting blown out again...However, I still see the Wizards evening this series, so giving the 4.5 points is not a big stretch for me as they have good FT shooters, so if they are up a couple with less than 24 seconds left and a foul-fest starts, I expect to see hem cover as Boston won't stop fouling until the lead hits 6 or 7 points (7 being the only key number in the NBA)...
 
You are welcome and thanx...

Not taking anything tonight...

Did a write-up for a free site I write at (not a forum), but no plays tonight...
 
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