NBA Semi's

[smh212]

17-15 +3.91 units

Ended round 2 by hitting a 4 team parlay. Some numbers of interest heading into the Semi's:

[h=4]Similar Historical Results[/h] Since the 2003-2004 season, there have been 60 games where the 1 seed played against the 2 seed. In those games:

• The 1 seed has a straight up record of 25-35-0 (The 2 seed is 35-25-0 straight up)
• The 1 seed has a record against the spread of 20-40-0 (The 2 seed is 40-20-0 ATS)
• The game went over the total 27 times, under 32 times, and pushed 1 times

[h=4]Regular Season Performance : Miami 2-2 Indiana[/h][h=4]Indiana Pacers Stats vs. Miami Heat[/h]

Player
Paul George
David West
Roy Hibbert
Lance Stephenson
Luis Scola
C.J. Watson
Evan Turner
George Hill
Ian Mahinmi
Rasual Butler

<thead>
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Points/Game
[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Reb/Gm[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Ast/Gm
[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]vsMIA
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vs MIA
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] vsMIA
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]

</thead> <tbody>
[TD="align: right"]21.8
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.4%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-15.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.4%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]17.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 13.9
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]14.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-52.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-29.5%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]12.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-27.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-32.7%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-10.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-6.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-45.9%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-59.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-11.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-30.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-32.3%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-66.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.1%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]2.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-32.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]1.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-51.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-3.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

</tbody>

Not surprising that Hibbert and West both saw their PPG go up against Miami compared to their play against the rest of the league. Unfortunately for Indiana, THEY WERE THE ONLY ONE'S!! Also of note, is Hibbert's utterly pathetic rebound numbers. When your PG is grabbing more reb/game than your 7'2" center, you got problems. The other thing that I think is worth consideration for both player props and pace of play is that George was the main facilitator on offense at about 5 assists per game.

<thead>
</thead> <tbody>
</tbody>

Miami Heat Stats vs. Indiana Pacers

Player
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
Mario Chalmers
Ray Allen
Chris Andersen
Norris Cole
Toney Douglas
Udonis Haslem
Rashard Lewis
Shane Battier

<thead>
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Pts/Gm[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Reb/Gm[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Ast/Gm[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]vsIND[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vs IND
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] %dif
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] vsIND
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif[/TH]

</thead> <tbody>
[TD="align: right"]28.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 27.4
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 33.2%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-23.1%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]21.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]18.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-41.7%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]11.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-29.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-23.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-8.3%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-19.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-27.2%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-29.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]36.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21.1%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-19.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]5.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-20.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-19.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-12.8%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-75.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-8.2%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]3.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-22.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-12.3%[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]1.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-68.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-86.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-100.0%[/TD]

</tbody>

Big rebound increase here for Lebron, with about an assist less per game. Bosh's numbers take a dip across the board, with 1.5 rebounds less per game and almost 5 points less per game. Bosh's numbers coincide with the numbers put up by Hibbert and West.

At the end of the day, these two clubs know each oher so well, that it's going to come down to execution. Two weeks ago, I would have made Miami a 6 point road favorite to open this series. However, Indiana has gotten SOME of their swagger back, and my main focus for both teams will focus on their last 12 games played, and break that down into sets of 3.

Most likely outcome: HEAT in 6

Will look at the OKC/SA series later.

 

[divol]

Nice roundup, good luck!

 

[CASH]

Nice info .,

Think your comment about Hibberts rebounds is way overblown.... I will put my thoughts in the ECf thread don't want to clutter yours..

ok one thing to clutter since you capitalized west and Hibberts scoring but no one else's.
where did Indy have the advantage in those games? Miami has no one to cover hibbert so they probably went to him a lot more, similar for west in their offensive sets..

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for the info, GL this round.

 

[emkee]

Nice.

1-seed v 2-seed stuff also applies to the WCF's.

GL my man.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Fellas. Will post WCF finals info tomorrow.
Some player props for today. All for .75:
Bosh UNDER 14.5 pts
Chalmers OVER 13.5 pts+asts
George OVER11.5 rebs+asts

GOOD LUCK

 

[divol]

Took Bosh Under as well. Good luck!

 

[smh212]

Missed the George and Chalmers props by a cunt hair.
For tonight:
OKC +6 (1)
OKC +296 (.25)
OVER 209

Good Luck.

 

[smh212]

Split out last night. Will update record tomorrow.

For tonight:

2 team parlay: HEAT -135 and KINGS +130 risking 1 to win 3

In game one of the Heat/Pacers series, basically everything went the Pacers way, and nothing went the Heat's way. The Heat have proven that they are very good at making adjustments, and I projected a split before the series, so the Heat are a play for me here. Over in the NHL, I've had pretty good success picking my spots. The Kings dropped game 1 at Chicago as was to be expected as they came off a tough 7 game series. I made tomorrow nights game Chi -110, so getting +130 presents excellent value IMO. Will bet betting the Kings straight as well, but since this is the NBA forum, the only think that will count towards my NBA record is the parlay.

Good Luck.

 

[emkee]

GL man, see the Heat v Pacers game the same way.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Emkee. Hit the first leg of the parlay. Market is telling me, I'm on the wrong side of the Kings game, so I backed Chicago and locked in a +1.50 unit profit if LA wins, and walk away unscathed if Chicago wins.

For hoops tonight:

OKC +6 (1) and OKC +200 (.25)
My line: SA -5

The final score of game 1 does not tell the story. OKC had a 76-75 lead in game 1, and I like there chances at these prices. Will clean up record tomorrow.

Good Luck.

 

[CASH]

Gl

 

[smh212]

Okc/Sa Game 3

Playoffs: 21-19 +5.27 units

Record bolstered by the parlay that paid 3 to 1. Showed a bit of impatience in in rounds 1 and 2, and again at the start of conf finals. Been waiting for a spot, and finally one popped.

OKLAHOMA CITY -2 (2)
My line: Okc -4.5

Fun game to handicap as there were many pieces to the puzzle. The additional time between games allowed for me to really dig in like it was my job, as opposed to the daily grind. Normally I only can commit 65 to 70% of the amount of time I would like to give a game due to the size or the cards and my life responsibilities.

First let's look at the historical situation I'm betting into:

The numbers below are are from my database that one of my friends who is a programmer and excel wiz built for me back in 2011. Can't thank him enough.

Numbers are from 2003 - May 22, 2014. The filter is playoff teams after losing two straight games on the road as dogs of between 3.5 and 6 pts, playing in the post season during the months of April and May (did not want to include June due to the NBA finals coming into play and the different sequence for which the games are played), who are then a home favorite in game 3. Keep in mind that the software incorporates MY historical power rankings in addition to teams actual performance and results. I bolded the numbers that helped drive my play. Numbers below do not incorporate the seed the team is.

All games: Home team 53-41-3 56.4% ATS , 62-34 SU 64% (found this significant given the low points spread).

Home Team favored: 35-28-2 ATS 55.6%, 47-18 72.3 % SU

Further breakdown shows: Teams favored by 0-3.5 were just 9-7 ATS and 10-6 SU. Teams favored by 4-7.5 (teams in this range have a 61.90% win probability at -4 to 76.7% win probability at -7.5) were 26-18-2 ATS and 34-12 SU.

So, the win probability for teams favored in this range is higher, due to the odds makers seeing the home team as basically on even terms with the road team, who just beat them two straight. Interesting side note that there were only 3 games where the home team was an 8 to 9.5 point favorite. While the home team was 3-0 SU they went 0-3 ATS.

The numbers tell me that the odds makers are giving the Thunder roughly a 54.3% chance of winning. My number says they have a 63.60% chance of winning.

History also tells me that the team I'm backing wins the game SU at a clip much closer to my number that the odds makers. I'm willing to use the SU results as relevant due to the spread being 2. NBA games land on "1" approx 4.4% of the time, and "2" approx 5.7% of the time. So there is some risk there, and it does have a small effect on my SU numbers, but enough to sway me from the play.

Historical numbers using SEEDING as the key variable.

Since 2003 through today

• The 2 seed has a straight up record of 37-31-0
• The 2 seed has a record against the spread of 42-26

I don't put much stock into these numbers as they have nothing to do with current form, and other variables I like to include in my handicapping, but, I thought it was worth noting as I did in my original thread.

Situational aspect as I see it:

My situational analysis is primarily based on the notes I took from games 1 and 2, coupled with box score review and quick views of the last two regular season match ups. Problem with using the regular season series is that you have to account for each teams current form at the time the game was played, and the situation surrounding the game (such as B2B, road trips, injuries, etc). Since I keep detailed logs, this information was not difficult to surmise, but none of the regular season games represent the current situation we have tomorrow, with the exception of the April 3rd matchup in OKC. With a 106-94 win, the Thunder halted the Spurs 19 game winning steak, which tells me they can cool off a seemingly unstoppable Spurs team. Back to the current situation, too much is being made of Ibaka being out in my opinion. There is not doubt he a key component to OKC, however, the larger issue is that for games 1 and 2, practices were limited to walk thru's, and Brooks proved that he is not a good enough coach to make a major adjustment on the fly. However, he experimented quite a bit, even deploying a 4 guard lineup for stretches in game 2. The on-the fly coaching ineptitude was not a surprise as Brooks has never done well in those situations, however, he has done a much better job of implementing a game plan and strategy when given time. We saw evidence of that ability this year, when the Thunder, with time to prepare, played solid ball with a purpose in the absence of Westbrook. The Thunder have had 3 days to prepare for Sunday's game, and get to play it at home. In addition, they are coming off a game in which, they didn't just lose, they were straight up embarrassed losing by 35 points. So that leaves me with a very good home team, in a must win, off a performance that was by far their worst of the season, and a good amount of time to prepare for the loss of a key player. Lastly, the Thunder should have some confidence in their chances of winning the series. All they have to do is pop in the 2012 tape to remind them of what they are capable of.

Conclusion: My handicapping warrants a play of 3 units, 1.75 units more than my standard. However, my bankroll can only support an increase of .75, and that's where I'm going to play it. If I win, great. If I lose, oh well. It's just one game in a sea of thousands.

Good Luck.

:shake:

 

[divol]

Nothing is better than three days rest on a team that is 0 - 2 in the series and just took a huge beating.

The players will have that on their minds for three days, so should come out with huge motivation, coaching staff has the time to think about adjustments...

Thunder on paper looks really great.

 

[smh212]

Nothing is better than three days rest on a team that is 0 - 2 in the series and just took a huge beating.

The players will have that on their minds for three days, so should come out with huge motivation, coaching staff has the time to think about adjustments...

Thunder on paper looks really great.

I agree, and the price is right.

 

[B.A.R.]

I saw your question in my thread so I will talk in here. I read your post above earlier today, outstanding stuff and definitely got my head in an even keel of mind wrt this series. As of now, leaning the Thunder as well.

You make some GREAT points.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Al. You gotta be excited about the Van Gundy hire (think I said the same thing about Cheeks), but now the man upstairs is gone, so maybe trades for Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings will cease.

 

[emkee]

Good luck, Smh.

Totally agree, upon further analysis Game's 1 and 2 were somewhat anomalies given the circumstances. Very, very favorable spot for a good team like OKC to respond.

My guy holding a 3 so went ML instead.

Only concern for me is the whole Ibaka 'will he, won't he play' soap opera being a distraction.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks Al. You gotta be excited about the Van Gundy hire (think I said the same thing about Cheeks), but now the man upstairs is gone, so maybe trades for Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings will cease.

I am as a coach. We shall see upstairs but needed a fresh start. I already love him attacking Gilbert. Terrific. Wish we had that pick because that was a great spot for some shooters. Instantly better either way.

 

[eggman]

SMH, you don't really think AI was the best scorer of all time do? I have no idea how you could be serious but I figured it's worth a question.

Nice hit tonight BAR.

 

[P-Unit]

Nicely done

 

[B.A.R.]

Great work in, a well-deserved win.

 

[emkee]

Great stuff, man.

 

[smh212]

P-unit, Bar, Em..........:shake:

Egg - Yes, I do think he was the greatest scorer of all-time. He was without a doubt the greatest scorer I have ever seen play in my lifetime. The key is SCORER. Michael Jordan was the greatest all-around basketball player I ever saw live, w/ Magic a close second (I'm 38).

Am a bit biased? Maybe, I saw him play live more than any other player, but here are some facts:

Iverson is the only rookie in NBA history to score 40+ points in Five Consecutive games.
Iverson set the Sixers playoff record for points when he dropped 54 on Toronto in 01.
Iverson is a 4x scoring champ
Iverson scored 48, 23, 35, 35, and 37 in his lone Finals appearance
As a Sixer Iverson averaged: 28.5, 26,33, 30, 32, and 31 ppg in the playoffs.

In more general terms, dude would drop 40 in a playoff game ALL THE TIME. Someone does it these days, and it's the biggest thing going. Lastly Egg, Iverson stood 5'11". Think about that.

So yes, IMO he is the greatest scorer in NBA history.

 

[eggman]

Not trying to hijack BAR's thread but I love this conversation. I'm a bit biased as well, like Iverson for you, I grew up with Jordan in my teenage years (I'm 34) and saw Iverson as well. Iverson was a great scorer, but while Jordan was the GOAT I think he was the best scorer as well. If you want to say Iverson was the best sub 6 foot scorer or all time I might agree.

 

[BJPLAYER]

P-unit, Bar, Em..........:shake:

Egg - Yes, I do think he was the greatest scorer of all-time. He was without a doubt the greatest scorer I have ever seen play in my lifetime. The key is SCORER. Michael Jordan was the greatest all-around basketball player I ever saw live, w/ Magic a close second (I'm 38).

Am a bit biased? Maybe, I saw him play live more than any other player, but here are some facts:

Iverson is the only rookie in NBA history to score 40+ points in Five Consecutive games.
Iverson set the Sixers playoff record for points when he dropped 54 on Toronto in 01.
Iverson is a 4x scoring champ
Iverson scored 48, 23, 35, 35, and 37 in his lone Finals appearance
As a Sixer Iverson averaged: 28.5, 26,33, 30, 32, and 31 ppg in the playoffs.

In more general terms, dude would drop 40 in a playoff game ALL THE TIME. Someone does it these days, and it's the biggest thing going. Lastly Egg, Iverson stood 5'11". Think about that.

So yes, IMO he is the greatest scorer in NBA history.

I agree that Iverson was a great scorer and he was as tough as it gets but he falls down in the basketball player department....The NBA is littered with BB players that could have been prolific scorers but instead chose to play the whole game on both ends of the court...Larry Bird used to have his 30 before the 4th quarter on many a night and would play the 4th insuring a victory with assists,rebounds and defense and one of his quotes was "if this game was only about scoring I would have 50 a night"....Jordon could have scored 40 a night but he instead chose to win championships by playing the entire game...Wilt averaged 30 for a career so he may be the greatest scorer of all time...The fact that Iverson put up the numbers above in so many losing efforts only detracts from his ability to play the game...IMO

 

[smh212]

Egg - yes best sub 6 footer, no doubt.
BJPLAYER - yes Iverson had many flaws as a basketball player. It took the perfect storm of ownership and coach willing to build a team around him. Can't put Allen in the same class as Bird and Magic. They were complete ball players. Allen was a scorer.

 

[eggman]

Iverson was fun. No question. Best scorer? No, but an entertaining player for sure.

 

[BJPLAYER]

Egg - yes best sub 6 footer, no doubt.
BJPLAYER - yes Iverson had many flaws as a basketball player. It took the perfect storm of ownership and coach willing to build a team around him. Can't put Allen in the same class as Bird and Magic. They were complete ball players. Allen was a scorer.

I think he was the toughest guy pound for pound that i have ever watched play....he would get the shit kicked out of him and keep motoring....he took a beating every game in the finals that he played in and never flinched

 

[smh212]

Tuesday 5/27

Playoffs: 22-19 +7.27 units

Grinding my way though the playoffs. Haven't had much action in the Heat series, and not much action in the Thunder series until they changed venues.

SPURS +130 (1.25)
My line: Okc -2

The majority of the time I bet my number. However, in the playoffs, there are not line moves of much significance, and you pretty much know what the line is going to be before it's posted. I knew we would see at least a "2" again tonight, but I was hoping the public would get all giddy with Ibaka back, and the dreams of 2012 floating through their heads. Maybe if there more time between games, but as it is, +130 is the best I think I'm going to get, so I'm buying now.

Game 3 was always going to be a Thunder win in my mind. Everything you could want as a bettor was there for the taking. Very good team, at home, off an ass kicking, with time to prepare. Ibaka was the icing on the cake. Still, with all that going for them, it became evident to me, that the adjustments the Thunder did make were not enough, and by the 2nd quarter they were back to playing hero ball w/ KD and Westbrook. The Spurs played as bad they as I think is possible for them. They pulled their starters with about 6 mins left. Tonight, I expect the Spurs to execute with the precision they have shown for the past 4 months. I expect Ibaka to have a poor game as the adrenaline from game 3 has likely worn off, and now his calf probably just hurts. Spurs take this one, and then maybe a price can be had on Thunder in game 5.

:shake:

 

[smh212]

5/31 Conf Finals

Playoffs: 22-20 +5.89 units

Was wrong in thinking the Spurs would take game 4 in OKC, then flat out missed the opportunity in game 5 with SA.

DURANT UNDER 32.5 PTS (1)

Player
Kevin Durant

<thead>
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"] Pts/Gm
[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Reb/Gm
[/TH]
[TH="colspan: 3, align: center"]Ast/Gm[/TH]

[TH="align: right"] vsSAS
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"] All
[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vsSAS[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]All[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]vsSAS[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]All[/TH]
[TH="align: right"]%dif
[/TH]

</thead> <tbody>
[TD="align: right"]25.4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31.6
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-19.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-6.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-32.0%
[/TD]

</tbody>

So Durant's scoring per game scoring is down 20% against the Spurs, yet we get a line that is higher than his season per game average? In addition, games in OKC tend to be lower scoring then those played in San Antonio.

:shake: