Satyr
Paster of Muppets
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NBA 2006/2007: 63 W-1 V-53 L +47.29 units
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Warriors (+4,5) (1.95 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Warriors ML (2.75 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
The value here is just immense and I will take both the points and the Warriors win with a rare 10 unit stake.
The line is reflecting the possible return of Luke Ridnour (11.8 PPG, 5.2 APG) to the Sonics lineup tonight, which should provide a spark which would resurrect the Sonics from the gutter and lead them to one more playoff appearance. Right?
Sounds good for the Sonic fans, but I don't think that's likely to happen. He might be having some rust to shake off after the injury, and the way these guys have been playing I don't think they're just going to blaze through tonight's clash and win it without even blinking.
What I'm thinking here is this: the Sonics have actually managed to keep some of their recent games very close, a 4 point loss to the Pistons, a 1 point loss in Toronto, 3 pt loss in Philly...
So they've been quite unlucky it seems. But if you look a bit deeper, you'll see they also beat NY in MSG by 1 point (Knicks with a couple of crucial injuries), and the Clippers by 2 points earlier this month.
This is just what they do, keep games close, or they let the opposing team to keep it close, a matter of perspective. Hence taking the points, because my first call was 8 units on the moneyline. But since Sonics narrow wins/losses is no coincidence but a pattern already, I'll choose the safer version with the larger part of the stake, and also try a few units on the moneyline.
Now onto the matchups/in game elements. The Warriors are playing very well right now, believe it or not. They failed to reach postseason since 1993/1994 and are now hanging on to the 8th spot. I think they beat the direct opposition for the 8th spot tonight. They beat Dallas 117-100, Denver 110-96 and Detroit (on the road on B2B!) 111-93.
These are three quality teams we're talking about, and not only have they beaten them, but beaten them by 17, 14 and 18 points.
This is something to respect.
They also thumped Minnesota last night, and they also played some solid defense, comparing to their offensive rhythm they should be allowing a ton but look at this:
Apart from the game in Portland (which tonight's Sonics backers are invoking here, but disregarding one super important fact: they were without Baron Davis then), they allowed century marks only against Dallas, while allowing 86, , 89, 96, 93 in their other games with full lineup at disposition. And against respectable teams mostly. Having watched them a couple of times during that span, they're playing a quick, somewhat improved version of the Suns' half court D, their defensive intensity is surprisingly high.
The Warriors have two equally in form point guards (Ellis being the other one), which enables them to keep their game tempo high even when Baron is on the bench, but Ellis is very usable as a shooting guard as well, as he seems to be taking shots even with Baron back. The fact that they are losing battles on the glass night and night out means nothing, Don Nelson's small ball isn't meant to dominate the boards anyway, they're using pace and accurate shooting to compensate for second chance points.
Andres Biedrins however, should create a lot of problems for Collison, Wilcox and co. tonight (don't forget, even with the small ball lineup, the Warriors average 41 RPG while Seattle grab only 39 per game, so much for a possible boarding mismatch in favor of the Sonics).
The fact that Monta Ellis scored 24 off the bench and that Jason Richardson had 8 assists while Baron logged for only 23 minutes last night says a lot really, their ability to change roles and still win games hands down (GSW shot 40% (11-27) from the 3 point range last night). The Sonics allow their opponents to shoot .471 which should provide enough space for the Warriors shooters to knock down treys, but also keep the ball distribution at a respectable level (27 assists last night).
Ray Allen flamed the Warriors by two 30 point efforts this season, but Seattle still lost both games. This bet fits in the situational play category as well: The fact GSW are b2b provides enough value, while the fact they're playing Utah in 3 days, closing the road trip before returning home, also provides a good spot to back them here, and look at a possible Jazz win (ATS) on Tuesday, since Sloan's men are possibly facing 4th consecutive loss tonight when they take on the Cavs in Cleveland.
One more thing: Not only Ridnour is returning from injury, so his production tonight is quite a gamble, but Ray Allen is playing on two bad ankles for a while now. When will that finally start to take it's toll nobody knows (not even the Sonics' medical team), but it is unpleasant.
The fact that the Sonics dropped 4 straight games, GSW being 5-0 with Baron and the guys in the lineup, the fact they've been playing well against far superior team than they're facing tonight, makes this one a 10 unit bet in my book.
More plays to follow...
have a good one guys.
:cheers:
NBA 2006/2007: 63 W-1 V-53 L +47.29 units
----------------------------------------------------------------
Warriors (+4,5) (1.95 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Warriors ML (2.75 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
The value here is just immense and I will take both the points and the Warriors win with a rare 10 unit stake.
The line is reflecting the possible return of Luke Ridnour (11.8 PPG, 5.2 APG) to the Sonics lineup tonight, which should provide a spark which would resurrect the Sonics from the gutter and lead them to one more playoff appearance. Right?
Sounds good for the Sonic fans, but I don't think that's likely to happen. He might be having some rust to shake off after the injury, and the way these guys have been playing I don't think they're just going to blaze through tonight's clash and win it without even blinking.
What I'm thinking here is this: the Sonics have actually managed to keep some of their recent games very close, a 4 point loss to the Pistons, a 1 point loss in Toronto, 3 pt loss in Philly...
So they've been quite unlucky it seems. But if you look a bit deeper, you'll see they also beat NY in MSG by 1 point (Knicks with a couple of crucial injuries), and the Clippers by 2 points earlier this month.
This is just what they do, keep games close, or they let the opposing team to keep it close, a matter of perspective. Hence taking the points, because my first call was 8 units on the moneyline. But since Sonics narrow wins/losses is no coincidence but a pattern already, I'll choose the safer version with the larger part of the stake, and also try a few units on the moneyline.
Now onto the matchups/in game elements. The Warriors are playing very well right now, believe it or not. They failed to reach postseason since 1993/1994 and are now hanging on to the 8th spot. I think they beat the direct opposition for the 8th spot tonight. They beat Dallas 117-100, Denver 110-96 and Detroit (on the road on B2B!) 111-93.
These are three quality teams we're talking about, and not only have they beaten them, but beaten them by 17, 14 and 18 points.
This is something to respect.
They also thumped Minnesota last night, and they also played some solid defense, comparing to their offensive rhythm they should be allowing a ton but look at this:
Apart from the game in Portland (which tonight's Sonics backers are invoking here, but disregarding one super important fact: they were without Baron Davis then), they allowed century marks only against Dallas, while allowing 86, , 89, 96, 93 in their other games with full lineup at disposition. And against respectable teams mostly. Having watched them a couple of times during that span, they're playing a quick, somewhat improved version of the Suns' half court D, their defensive intensity is surprisingly high.
The Warriors have two equally in form point guards (Ellis being the other one), which enables them to keep their game tempo high even when Baron is on the bench, but Ellis is very usable as a shooting guard as well, as he seems to be taking shots even with Baron back. The fact that they are losing battles on the glass night and night out means nothing, Don Nelson's small ball isn't meant to dominate the boards anyway, they're using pace and accurate shooting to compensate for second chance points.
Andres Biedrins however, should create a lot of problems for Collison, Wilcox and co. tonight (don't forget, even with the small ball lineup, the Warriors average 41 RPG while Seattle grab only 39 per game, so much for a possible boarding mismatch in favor of the Sonics).
The fact that Monta Ellis scored 24 off the bench and that Jason Richardson had 8 assists while Baron logged for only 23 minutes last night says a lot really, their ability to change roles and still win games hands down (GSW shot 40% (11-27) from the 3 point range last night). The Sonics allow their opponents to shoot .471 which should provide enough space for the Warriors shooters to knock down treys, but also keep the ball distribution at a respectable level (27 assists last night).
Ray Allen flamed the Warriors by two 30 point efforts this season, but Seattle still lost both games. This bet fits in the situational play category as well: The fact GSW are b2b provides enough value, while the fact they're playing Utah in 3 days, closing the road trip before returning home, also provides a good spot to back them here, and look at a possible Jazz win (ATS) on Tuesday, since Sloan's men are possibly facing 4th consecutive loss tonight when they take on the Cavs in Cleveland.
One more thing: Not only Ridnour is returning from injury, so his production tonight is quite a gamble, but Ray Allen is playing on two bad ankles for a while now. When will that finally start to take it's toll nobody knows (not even the Sonics' medical team), but it is unpleasant.
The fact that the Sonics dropped 4 straight games, GSW being 5-0 with Baron and the guys in the lineup, the fact they've been playing well against far superior team than they're facing tonight, makes this one a 10 unit bet in my book.
More plays to follow...
have a good one guys.
:cheers:
.
