NBA Saturday

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
well back to my sporadic posting. In the past I was on a good roll and decided I'd help the forum out and try to continue getting winners out there. This time though, it's the other way around. I've been on an absolute shit run and looking for anything to turn it around. Went from up a great amount to I think even down now for the season. Not a huge amt, but I want to be able to say I had a winning season. Not sure if I'm off my game and am just picking losers or if Im just having bad luck, but I need to turn this shit around. I feel like I'm reading the games better than ever, but the results don't show it. This probably ties into the "right side" argument in the talkin shop forum, as I feel that I'm making the right moves even after the game, but shit just didnt turn out in the final like I had planned. I clearly had the wrong side (the losing side) but I'm not quite sure how i take the loss for the future. What do I learn from these continuous 1/2 pt, 1 pt losses? Maybe I shouldn't be betting, but eh we'll see

onto the games:

Indi @ Chicago
CHicago off a huge win for them- tnt W revenge over Miami and move into the 7th seed. How do they react? Murphy out which is horrible for Indi. They seem to have a little momemtum with wins over charlotte and Miami. They have rest, but still suck on the road. Chicago should win this game and shut out any last breath Indi has for the playoffs. May get into CHicago in a ML parlay/ teaser, but will see. Don't want to take the risk of them relaxing off a big W and sitting in the 7th seed. need more to make a play on this game

detroit @ Wash
degen game really- or a homer play for those in wash/det. I think arenas rip and sheed all start 2m, so betting on this game would be essentially guessing how these teams react to getting these players back. There probably is a few nerves in Arenas, yet he'll prbably find a way to jack up 25 shots. Its his first game with tapscott and probably could care less about him. Detroit now in the 8th spot should want this more, but again how do they react to everyone back? eh actually the more I think about it, this could be a spot for detroit to get a road W on a short line. They're 8th now fighting for lives. You'd expect det to be better adjusted to sheed and rip than wash would be to arenas. I can see BAR making a play on detroit here, and maybe I'll tail him if he does.

NY @ Charlotte
holy shit. just noticed that charlotte outrebounded philly at philly 41-23. wow Charlotte can control their fate for the playoffs, but it will not be easy. You'd assume this would be a must win for them, as well as any otehr home games vs sub.500 teams, but can't say for sure. I would like Charlotte, but betting the fave in NY games is not a winning prop. The dog is 14-1 ATS in NY's last 15 games. It seems they win the games they're not expected to, and can't handle the pressure, usually at home, to win games they should. I expect charlotte to win here and cover, but that stat has me hesitant.

will get to other games when I ave time, but the games I'm liking are Houston (-13ish?) Utah (pissed I missed the 7.5) and maybe GS (+9?)
ask Qs if you got any, not sure if I'll have time for writeups for rest
 
Milw @ Miami
5/7, 5/9/ 7/11 for Miami and coming off 2 losses. They probably win, but I wouldn't bet on it. likely a no play for me as I cannot bet Milwaukee on the road right now. They're fucked up right now, and looks like the lack of talent has finally caught up to them. Miami however, should be a tired bunch. 5/7, but they have had a days rest. God the more I look back, I still have no clue how Memphis +11.5 on the 23rd lost- it was amazing. whatever, if I do a ML parlay, I might put Miami in it, but not sure

LA @ Houston
Love this play on Houston. Houston finally off that shit 15 games in 25 nights. This is pretty disturbing the plays I'v ebeen losing laytely just from not looking- as a 2nd H play on Hosuton at Utah the other day was the definition of horrible. This is Houston's only game in 7 days with lots of rest before and after this game meaning they can play hard. More- LAC beat this rocket team earlier in december, so you gotta think theres some rememebring of that event. Looks like Camby is out and wont be able to defend Yao. Clips played decently heavy minutes today. This is seriously the worst schedule I've ever seen. 10 games in 15 nights- all with flights between each game. 5 in 7 one day before another 5/7. Its not like this clipper team is mentally strong anyway or well coached or anything. This game should be nothing less than a Houston 25 pt W. Just not sure how I wanna attack it. 1st H would be nice consideirng its houston off a loss and will have a lower number, but if theres rust itll be in the 1st Q. Also it doesnt fully take advantage of tired legs. Full game would take advatnage of the tired legs, but laying 14 doesn't sound too fun. will see but I'll defintiely be on this game
 
Jpicks need your help on this one- why wont Utah smack the living shit out of Phoenix? essentially a home n home for Utah while Phoenix had to play a game. Phoenix only won last game because they got easy ass buckets- layups in transition by just throwing it down. If Sloan is any kind of coach, he will get Utah to prevent that bullshit- oh yea and Utah was absolute shit from the line. very uncharacteristic of them. I wanna say Houston and Utah are easy ass MLs 2m, but I'll need one or two more to make the payout respectable. not too worried about a backdoor because I'd think Phoenix would need to save their old boys if its out of reach for a possibly tough game at arco the next night.
 
I have been playing good teams in the 1st Quarter (and usually 1st H as well) of late . This weeks payback spots have been rewarded greatly in the 1st Quarter .

Monday -
Miami hosted Memphis won by 14
Boston hosted LAC won by 13

Wed
Dal vs GSW 13 or so pts

Thursday
LAL @ Det won ny 13

Fri
NOH @ NYk won by 3 laying 1 or 1.5

looking more at road favs or big home chalk as the payback situations ....

:shake:
 
no more yes on GS. Looks like Jack could be out for the season? eh fuck the warriors. i got no heart to bet on their games.
 
SportsNut said:
I have been playing good teams in the 1st Quarter (and usually 1st H as well) of late . This weeks payback spots have been rewarded greatly in the 1st Quarter .

Monday -
Miami hosted Memphis won by 14
Boston hosted LAC won by 13

Wed
Dal vs GSW 13 or so pts

Thursday
LAL @ Det won ny 13

Fri
NOH @ NYk won by 3 laying 1 or 1.5

looking more at road favs or big home chalk as the payback situations ....

:shake:
Click to expand...

good catch. Would you consider Houston as in a payback situation? just a decent loss on the road in december- not sure how much it comes into play
 
ML Parlay -

Bulls , Utah , Houston , Miami , Uconn , Blazers might be an add on since the Frizz are 2-16 SU on no rest ...nice 6 teamer that I will probably play as a 4 teamer minus the biggest chalks
 
SF_capper said:
good catch. Would you consider Houston as in a payback situation? just a decent loss on the road in december- not sure how much it comes into play
Click to expand...

To me the very definition of payback is the Rockets losing to the Clippers . One team is 18-55 and the other is 47-26 it would certainly rub me the wrong way if I lost to a team who will win 20 games and mine won 50+....

Factor in they lost by 13 and were outscored 50-34 in the 2nd Half....:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
ML Parlay -

Bulls , Utah , Houston , Miami , Uconn , Blazers might be an add on since the Frizz are 2-16 SU on no rest ...nice 6 teamer that I will probably play as a 4 teamer minus the biggest chalks
Click to expand...

Portland and Miami scare me. Portland- eh I doubt they lose, but at that price I dunno if I'd want them in it as I wouldn't call it sure that they'd win. for ML parlays, I usually look at the game and only add the ML game if I would play it by itself on a str8 bet ML. Miami and Portland do not fit that bill for me as Portland has been just walkin into games half assed to rally in the 2nd H and Miami should be shit tired

Uconn- college hoops :seeya:

Bulls Houston and Utah I can see. Bulls and Utah prolly around like -400/500. Houston like -1500? this would be about -165 for a ML parlay of those 3, and I'd consider it worth it. Many here don't play chalk above like -115, but i dont mind much if the odds are priced fairly
 
SportsNut said:
To me the very definition of payback is the Rockets losing to the Clippers . One team is 18-55 and the other is 47-26 it would certainly rub me the wrong way if I lost to a team who will win 20 games and mine won 50+....

Factor in they lost by 13 and were outscored 50-34 in the 2nd Half....:shake:
Click to expand...

:shake: Houston 3some it is- 1st Q, 1st H, full game
as well as in a ML parlay
 
SF_capper said:
Jpicks need your help on this one- why wont Utah smack the living shit out of Phoenix? essentially a home n home for Utah while Phoenix had to play a game. Phoenix only won last game because they got easy ass buckets- layups in transition by just throwing it down. If Sloan is any kind of coach, he will get Utah to prevent that bullshit- oh yea and Utah was absolute shit from the line. very uncharacteristic of them. I wanna say Houston and Utah are easy ass MLs 2m, but I'll need one or two more to make the payout respectable. not too worried about a backdoor because I'd think Phoenix would need to save their old boys if its out of reach for a possibly tough game at arco the next night.
Click to expand...

Short on time, but I do love the Jazz tomorrow and have played them. They felt they lost the game @PHO more than PHO actually won it. Really don't expect it to be even remotely close. 15+ point victory in my eyes.
 
Cant disagree with ort and Miami being scary . Bucks are terrible though and Miami cant afford to lose this game . With Port while alot more comfortable also think Memphis is tougher then Milw . You have Port on 2 days rest vs a team playing b2b , Memphis now 6-29 away and Blazers 29-7 at home, mem 2-16 SU with no rest and Port 9-2 on 2 days rest(7-0 vs teams on no or 1 days rest) , scary is Memphis is now an amzing 5-33 SU when not playing on 1 days rest ( 2-16 b2b , 1-12 on 2 days rest and now 2-5 on extended rest )

Thats what tempts me with Portland ....
:shake:
 
bleh my 'unit size" is getting really weird as I've taken out a lot of my bookmaker money to buy stuff. I'll just post amount of my bets for today and will see what I do with the other later. typical bet size should be around 2-500. Have locked in:

Utah -8.5- 330 for 300
 
Utah should be a good play. Line will go up for sure by gametime. GL. You might want to take a look at Chicago, Detroit, and Char. This is edging the end of the season and teams know where they stand. Expect Chicago and Detroit to win SU, because they are pretty might tied for 7th and 8th. If anything, Detroit should try exceptionally hard to win SU, because they will soon fall off as the 8th seed if they keep losing.

Char - still in the playoff race. They are trying to stack up as many wins as possible to get into the playoffs. I will be playing Char pretty much until we can finalize who will actually get into the playoffs. I'm sure it'll be profitable to bet on them on fixed amount of units every game.
 
may be supporting a heat play:


MIAMI — With 10 games left in the regular season the Heat (38-34) is fighting hard to control its playoff destiny. So far it's losing the fight.
That makes tonight's 7:30 home game against Milwaukee a big one.
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"I don't think at this point we can overstate any game," forward Udonis Haslem said. "Every game is critical."
The Heat has lost five of its last seven, including a 19-point defeat at Chicago on Thursday night.
Still, Miami - which is battling Philadelphia for the fifth seed in the East - is a virtual lock to reach the post-season. Because the top eight teams from each conference make the playoffs, Miami can rest a bit easier knowing that the ninth-place team is well below .500.
But retaining the fifth seed is critical. Miami held on to the spot Friday night when Philadelphia lost to Charlotte.
A sixth seed would mean a first-round matchup against No. 3, almost certain to be Orlando or defending-champion Boston. Either opponent would likely eliminate Miami, perhaps even with a sweep.
Being the fifth seed would mean Miami would face fourth-seeded Atlanta in the first round. Even though the Heat wouldn't have home-court advantage, that would be a winnable best-of-seven series.
"Regardless of whether our opponent is in the playoff hunt or not, we have to continue to win our games in order to keep the position we want," center Jamaal Magloire said.
Magloire was a member of the 2004 New Orleans Hornets team that lost to the Heat in a seven-game, first-round series. The home team won every game in that series.
The Heat got the fourth seed and home-court advantage because of its 42-40 record, and more specifically, because it beat Boston and New Jersey in the season's final two games. The Hornets split their final two games, ending at 41-41.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle the Heat faces in these final 10 games is the road. Miami is 2-8 on the road since the All-Star break. It has five road games remaining - Dallas, Charlotte, Washington, Boston and Atlanta.
Its five home games are against Milwaukee tonight, Orlando, New Orleans, New York and Detroit (in the season finale April 15).
Miami could get help from Philadelphia's tough remaining schedule. The 76ers have 11 games remaining, and seven are against Eastern Conference playoff teams - two against Cleveland, two against Detroit, and one each against Boston, Chicago and Atlanta. Six of Philadelphia's final 11 games are on the road, where the 76ers are 16-19 (Miami is 13-23).
Neither Miami nor Philadelphia wants the sixth seed and a rugged first-round series.
"I don't think they really want to mess with Orlando or Boston in the first round," Haslem said of the Sixers. "We've got to take care of our business. Our destiny is in our own hands."


Thursday, March 26, 2009
CHICAGO — All you had to do was catch a glimpse of Miami forward Udonis Haslem yelling at his teammates on the sideline after the third quarter to know the Heat was facing major problems Thursday in Chicago.
And after you spoke with Haslem, that suspicion was confirmed.
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Haslem, the no-nonsense veteran team captain, apparently had seen enough dead-legged inactivity from the Heat and verbally blasted the offenders.
It didn't help.
The Heat's 16-point deficit turned into a 106-87 loss to Chicago at United Center.
"I don't know what the situation is right now, but I know we've got to figure it out or we're going to be on vacation early," Haslem said. "Regardless of what seed we've got now there's still enough basketball left to where if we don't take care of our business, we'll be going home."
The Heat (38-34, .527) technically fell into the sixth seed by percentage points behind fifth-seeded Philadelphia (37-33, .529). That means right now Miami is staring at a first-round matchup against third-seeded Boston.
Guard Dwyane Wade led all scorers with 31 points but had very little help once again. Center Jermaine O'Neal contributed a relatively meaningless 12 points and a paltry three rebounds. Haslem, who had 18 points and 14 rebounds in Wednesday's loss at Indiana, had 13 points and six rebounds. No one else scored meaningful points when the game was on the line.
"We can't get punked," said guard Luther Head, who, like Wade, was playing in his hometown. "That's what happened tonight. Guys were taking the ball from us. You just can't do that, especially going into the playoffs."
Miami seemed to have a winning conviction in the first half when it took a 49-47 lead into the locker room. But Chicago changed the tone of the game in the third quarter, outscoring the Heat 32-14, and turning it into a laugher. The Bulls' lead climbed to 20 points in the fourth quarter.
"It was more a mental lapse on our part," Wade said.
Miami hardly had the legs to compete in this one and seemed to have to force itself to get in position to make plays at both ends of the court. That could have been the result of playing its fourth game in five nights.
"I don't like to put it on that," coach Erik Spoelsra said.
Regardless, Miami fell to 2-8 on the road since the All-Star break and 13-23 on the road overall. And the Heat has lost five of its past seven games and is 10-10 since the All-Star break.
The signature play of the night put the Heat's fatigue on display. Bulls center Brad Miller beat three Heat players for a rebound and then dribbled into the corner before passing to rookie guard Derrick Rose.
Rose took off toward the lane and threw a lob to Tyrus Thomas, who threw down perhaps the most vicious dunk ever on Wade. The crowd went crazy, Chicago took a 77-63 lead after Thomas hit his free throw to complete the three-point play.
"Our resiliency in that quarter was not indicative of who we've been all year," Spoelstra said.
 
bleh I wil not play Miami. Teams that slump usually need rest to get out of it. I do think they'll win, but not gonna bet on it. They've now quietly lost 5 of their last 7. When you rely so much on 1 player and he's tired, you're team's W/L will take the hit
 
wow fuck you bookmaker. 15?! very weak.... and yet I play it:

Houston -15- 220 for 200
1st H Houston -8.5- 230 for 200
 
ok I think here's the final card:

Utah -8.5- 330 for 300
--- utah -9- 105 for 100
Houston -15- 450 for 400
1st H Houston -8.5- 230 for 200
ML Parlay- chicago, houston, utah- 350 for 187.78
 
I like Houston 3rd quarter. Full game spread is a risk against this Clippers. Last night Spurs were up 25 6mins left and they pulled all starters while Clippers left all starters in. Clippers came back and almost covered the 11. Same happened when Clippers played @Celtics. I though too the Celtics would crush them with revenge but instead they just left all starters on bench in 4th. Celtics were up 21 in 4th but Clippers came back again with all starters in the game and covered the 15.

Clippers in 3rd Q:
@Spurs 26-37
@Knicks 30-27 in a crazy game
@Celtics 18-26
@Raptors 14-23
@Pistons 19-28
 
Good lookin out zecco, but this ituation is quite different imo. I'm betting this game less on the revenge aspect, and more on the rest differential. Houston shouldn't bench starters too early because they have so much rest before and after this game that they have no incentive to rest early- the players may just want to get on the court and play hard, while the clips players playin 10/15 should be the opposite. They've been playing starters to rally and come up short, where's the motvation for them to do it again?
 
nice read SF.... need utah and miami to complete a ML parlay, so will be rootin for the jazz with you.

gl on the rest of em bro
 
dont expect any clipper starter to finish this game with over 32 minutes. I expect Houston up 30+ at end of 3 and 35+ at final. Dont think CLips have it in them to fight back in the 4th like they've been doing. That Brooks 34 was the heart breaker at ANY shot at a comeback. it'll be a blowout
 
with you on Houston -2 2nd half. Kind of liking Portland -7 1st half. Rolled Phoenix at home, had a day off, now at home again against a memphis squad that had a high tempo game last night at Sacramento. Plus Portland off for a few days after this before hosting Utah, so they won't be leaving their homecourt. Memphis continues on to play at Golden State monday. You have any thoughts on this one bro?
 
SHANE BATTIER!!!!!!!

3rd Q is money!
Hope Rockets keep starters in for few to get this shit in 30+.
 
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