NBA Saturday/Sunday

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The playoffs are here. Its been a great run for so many of us the last month or so. Truly great to see everyone coming together here at CTG and helping each other out and making this easily the most profitable NBA forum I have ever seen. Big thanks to so many of you who keep the activity, thoughts and great discussion going each day/night.

Heres the true openers for all the games this weekend.

Toronto 5-192
Chicago 4.5-183.5
Detroit 8-191
Houston 5.5-186.5
Cleveland 11-190
Phoenix 10.5-216
Cleveland 11-190
Phoenix 10.5-216
San Antonio 8-195
Dallas 10.5-213

So far, a few significant changes. The Phoenix total has dropped 2 points. The Dallas total has risen 1.5 points. Cleveland has risen 1 point. The Houston total has dropped 2 points.

Miami @ Chicago

I will be playing the Heat in both games one and two. Fairly convinced they will get a split at the United Center. The playoffs are a whole new game. I like to look at two games as a small sample to show Chicagos struggles against very good defensive teams. They played Detroit/Cleveland b2b three weeks ago and split. They really struggled at many times to score in both contests(especially the DET one). Although they split those games I feel these are the types of games they will see throughout their playoff run. The Chicago make-up is not one that is going to succeed against these types of teams. Miami is gonna make this an ugly series. They have the big bodies inside to thwart penetration for Chicago. This will lead to a series of jumpers for the Bulls. Now, Chicago can look good playing in the regular season hitting jumpers and getting out in transition but the fact is things will be different in the playoffs. Ben is a great defensive center but in all honesty he is not a great on the ball defender. He has always done his best work roaming and making plays off the ball. O'Neal will have a nice series and set the tone. The x-factor is Alonzo. If he is playing like he has for the last 18 months there is no doubt in my mind Miami will be too tough for Chicago.

Miami +4.5 -110 4 units

Golden State @ Dallas

This series will be short and sweet. The only time I would like GS is what will be an emotional playoff return for the home fans. Might be a good 1st half play that day. Other than that, I don't see much happening here. This is the playoffs, not the regular season. Golden State simply is not built for this. I am glad to see them in though and I hope they enjoy their short stay. Dallas is rested and ready to go. This team will simply shred Golden State on Sunday. No doubt in my mind that they roll with ease. I can see a 15-30 point win..easily.

Dallas -10 -110 4 units

LA Lakers @ Phoenix

Lets look back at last years series:

107-102
99-93
99-92
99-98(OT)
114-97
126-118(OT)
121-90


All four games at Phoenix went under this years opening total. Two of the three at Staples did as well with the one going over being an Overtime game. I am not using this as a reason to justify a play but merely to show pace change come playoff time.

The Lakers have one of the best gameplanners/motivators and coaching staffs in general when it comes to playoff basketball. They know they are overmatched in this series and will be quite deliberate all series long like last year in order to have a chance. They get in a run-n-gun affair with Phoenix and it will be an ugly series. I just don't see that happening.

I actually think the Lakers will be competitive for the first 3 quarters or so on Sunday and honestly laugh at this total. There is a reason it got hammered down 2 points in 3-4 hours already. Its set way too high.

Phoenix-LA Under 214 -110 4 units


Quick thoughts on the others games:

Houston is being valued right where they should be. The thing to watch is there tempo will slow doen as well. I think thats why we see the intial surge down in the total. I am not touching game one. I kind of hope Utah gets one of these games to set up some value in games 3-4 for Houston.

Toronto-New Jersey is a series I will have to watch for a bit. The Nets are the biggest enigtma in the league. Who knows who shows up. You would think this veteran laden team would be a great dog spot here against the green Raptors but I cannot trust them.

Cleveland could very well be looking towards 2nd round and beyong already. This series is one where they will be huge favorites each game and should win by double-digits each game. Be careful here. Lets see how they come out in Game 1.

Detroit is always an 8 point favorite in game one of the first round series. Always(lol). Orlando will be excited to be here. Dwight said he wanted Detroit while Carlos said he didn't. Howard is a smart young player. He wants to go against a great test. It will be that too. orlando simply cannot score enough against Detroit in a slow-dwon game as both games at ORL showed this season.

The Spurs and Nuggets will be fun. Once again, a scoring team gets into a different tempo. Denver couldn't score whatsoever last year against Clippers. They do have the added versatility of Allen Iverson but that won;t do them much good. They will have to play defense and create turnovers. I doubt I'll even play a game in this series unless Denver wins a game @ SA setting up a nice game 3 for Spurs



Alright, lets have a good playoffs cappers. Any questions I will answer later Thursday night and Friday. Will be gone most of weekend.

GL:cheers:
 
i agree with everything for the most part but why not take miami on the ml in game 1 and if it misses chase it for a unjit more in gmae 2?
 
Well, I was going to do that but am also think that most of these games will be very tight late. I think the points could come in handy.

Thats usually what I would do, just being a bit careful..thats all.
 
SMH at everyone sleeping on the warriors. Sure that last game did not count but are people not aware that the warriors have one 5 in a row against the Mavs? I realize its the playoffs now but this Warrior team is on a hot streak and very hungry, these games will be a lot closer than you think.

Warriors in 7
 
dfresh said:
SMH at everyone sleeping on the warriors. Sure that last game did not count but are people not aware that the warriors have one 5 in a row against the Mavs? I realize its the playoffs now but this Warrior team is on a hot streak and very hungry, these games will be a lot closer than you think.

Warriors in 7
Click to expand...
totally disagree. I am happy as hell they made playoffs and the fans appreciate it.

I can give you a list long enough shwoing teams like this that struggle mightily in playoffs.

Tell ya what though. It would be great for NBA if the Warriors made this a series., Sadly, I just cannot see it happening.

Regular season results for this series are inconsequential.

GL dfresh:cheers:
 
i cant tell if that was homerism on his part or an actual take on this series. im hoping the former. gl dfresh.
 
Big alimony, would you agree that the Mavs line comes down? Warriors will probably be a popular play. Missed Miami at 4.5, hopefully it comes back. Doubtful though.
 
HEY BAR,

I have been following and respecting your thoughts from your days on Covers to now. I had a quick question about these upcoming plays. I know you posted that they are 4units each. How much of a percentage of your bankroll is that? Just curious to see how much weight you are giving these 1st games of the series.
I look forward to having a good postseason again and hopefully for myself, not getting screwed in the finals like I did with Dallas last year.

What are your thoughts on the Denver/SA series. I think Nuggets are playing great basktball and are a live dog. But, if they don't play D this series they will get crushed with the Spurs discipline.

:cheers:
 
thanks for the writeup bar. i agree on most things except the GSW getting killed/no chance. I think if anything itll be the inexperience of the new unit in the playoffs...i think GSW win 1-2 games, but usually your right bout everything when i go against you.

agree with you on heat + lakers under..thats y i played it just now
let the excitement begin!!!

btw, are you making any series/future wagers?
 
I agree with all your thoughts, but I think the Bulls will pull the series win there, and I was actually considering laying the points with the Bulls, but gonna wait till later.

Dallas -10 - A Dallas team that needs to focus on only one team for the next few games, especially a team that has swept them this year would indicate a clinical performance. There's no room for Dallas to take this team lightly.

Lakers/Phx under - same reasons as you and billivy.

Good luck BAR.
 
Hey BAR,

nice job!

I am a money line player and the raptors line looks very good to me. I think a lot of people look at the nets roster of the big 3 and say this team should win, which will keep the line low.
The raptors are strong at home and with Bargnani back that gives them another scoring threat at 7 feet. Who will cover him and bosh for the nets? I dont think Kidd can run with tj ford, which should give them some easy buckets.
1st playoff game in a while at home vs carter. I think the place will be loud and excited to watch this team run on the nets and toronto has the bench to keep running on them.

thoughts?
 
Great points Beanbag.....you just convinced me.

BTW, with everyone on the Nets this line should creep down.

Oh yeah-- Al youve made me rich the past month, lets keep it up.
 
Big Al. agree on dallas....I going big on dallas first half play and the whole game for game one here.....:cheers:
 
Beanbag said:
Hey BAR,

nice job!

I am a money line player and the raptors line looks very good to me. I think a lot of people look at the nets roster of the big 3 and say this team should win, which will keep the line low.
The raptors are strong at home and with Bargnani back that gives them another scoring threat at 7 feet. Who will cover him and bosh for the nets? I dont think Kidd can run with tj ford, which should give them some easy buckets.
1st playoff game in a while at home vs carter. I think the place will be loud and excited to watch this team run on the nets and toronto has the bench to keep running on them.

thoughts?
Click to expand...


And you've got Anthony Parker on VC defensively, it's a pretty nice matchup for Toronto, I'll be riding them this series. I'm pretty sure BAR was leaning Nets though, not sure.. I'm with you on the Mavs BAR, I like the Bulls tomorrow though... I don't see Miami just strolling into the playoffs after sucking ass for the last few weeks, they can't be ready, while the Bulls have been playing big games the whole month. I also like Hinrich on Wade, they're going to pick/roll Wade all game, he's gonna get worn down, and Ben Wallace is the best you can hope for against Shaq in the East. The Bulls played the Heat tough last year, and they've improved this year, while the Heat have gotten worse. GL though BAR, you might convince me to lay off
 
i say we pound dallas. no way they let gs think they have a shot in this series. dallas is going to be juiced for a title in game 1 at home after last year. i would be shocked if they dont cover this line and win by 18-29
 
I've got to ask why you're playing the Mavs at -10. I think you'll see some 9.5's and possibly lower. I'm guessing it's because you're going to be out all weekend?
 
that is part of it..and I did forsee some 9.5's...but in any case...this game I would play up to 12.5-13...so no big deal..now if I had time I woulda waited a bit longer

back in a bit
 
good luck BAR, I like a lot of what you said there, I'll post my own thread these days. let's do it buddy, have a good playoff campaign :cheers:
 
BAR, gotta love dallas to destroy GS in the first couple of games.....series should be a quick one.

with you on the Heat as well...playoffs are a new ball game.

Gl for the rest of the season.
 
Miami is going to be in big trouble in this series. They're all banged up and the team has been a mess for nearly a month now. They're not playing good basketball and that's especially been the case in the games which Wade played in down the stretch. Yes, I know they weren't concerned about winning them but they just didn't look right when he was on the floor playing with the starting unit. I think this team is going out in the first round.
 
ajmaverick said:
HEY BAR,

I have been following and respecting your thoughts from your days on Covers to now. I had a quick question about these upcoming plays. I know you posted that they are 4units each. How much of a percentage of your bankroll is that? Just curious to see how much weight you are giving these 1st games of the series.
I look forward to having a good postseason again and hopefully for myself, not getting screwed in the finals like I did with Dallas last year.

What are your thoughts on the Denver/SA series. I think Nuggets are playing great basktball and are a live dog. But, if they don't play D this series they will get crushed with the Spurs discipline.

:cheers:
Click to expand...

Basically I don't play percentages of bankroll. I started the season playing 1-5 units..with most being 1-3...then some huge plays I would play 5..sometimes a bit more. As the season went good I steadily increased my plays as I usually do and went large often the last month because thats generally the easiest time of year.

Most things I do are feel. Thats just how I am. I think these playoffs will be pretty hard. My goal is to win 25 units. I will be happy with that. I won't stop when I get to 25 but I think thats a reasonable goal this playoffs.

As far as they three plays I like them all a lot. Being its a new season now I wanted to limint them to decent sized wagers for now.

You answered your own question about SA/Den. Denver has played some defense the last few weeks but I think the Spurs versatility is too much. Add in that the Nuggets in a slow down game still don;t have enough offense and thats your series right there.
 
doublem9 said:
thanks for the writeup bar. i agree on most things except the GSW getting killed/no chance. I think if anything itll be the inexperience of the new unit in the playoffs...i think GSW win 1-2 games, but usually your right bout everything when i go against you.

agree with you on heat + lakers under..thats y i played it just now
let the excitement begin!!!

btw, are you making any series/future wagers?
Click to expand...

As far as series wagers...I rolled in them for like 4-5 years staright..like losing none..lol. Last year I lost 3-4 early b4 winning the Miami in 6 in EC Finals...

Things changed a lot on the NBA landscape last year. Thats why I am a bit leery this year. Not to mention there is little value out there. Utah's collapse at end of season took away all value Rockets would have had. Miami is basically the one I am eyeing right now.
 
Ally said:
I agree with all your thoughts, but I think the Bulls will pull the series win there, and I was actually considering laying the points with the Bulls, but gonna wait till later.

Dallas -10 - A Dallas team that needs to focus on only one team for the next few games, especially a team that has swept them this year would indicate a clinical performance. There's no room for Dallas to take this team lightly.

Lakers/Phx under - same reasons as you and billivy.

Good luck BAR.
Click to expand...

This Chicago-Miami series will be debated to no end..lol

GL buddy:cheers:
 
Beanbag said:
Hey BAR,

nice job!

I am a money line player and the raptors line looks very good to me. I think a lot of people look at the nets roster of the big 3 and say this team should win, which will keep the line low.
The raptors are strong at home and with Bargnani back that gives them another scoring threat at 7 feet. Who will cover him and bosh for the nets? I dont think Kidd can run with tj ford, which should give them some easy buckets.
1st playoff game in a while at home vs carter. I think the place will be loud and excited to watch this team run on the nets and toronto has the bench to keep running on them.

thoughts?
Click to expand...
Beanbag,

This series is gonna be a doozy. The Nets know how to play a playoff pace and the Raptors do not. At the same time the Raptors have some critical advantages as you said. I will let this play out for a few games before playing anything most likely. Gonna be crazy at the ACC for the home games. Should be great.
 
tonywho said:
Big Al. agree on dallas....I going big on dallas first half play and the whole game for game one here.....:cheers:
Click to expand...
I am sure many will think GS due to their superior 1st half record this year but I agree with you totally. GL to ya boys this spring:cheers:
 
Good luck BAR...
I'm with you on the lake show under and Miami... Having a hard time pulling the trigger on Dallas though?? I agree with your thoughts but I just think that GS is gonna bring a lot of energy to the court, I am recalling a game I watched them play against Detroit and there fast but so is Dallas and I think Dallas will control the tempo...

Thanks for all the great advice all year and all the comments, it has been a fun season!!


:cheers:
 
I think the OVER in Dallas/GS is a good wager. Yes, Dallas is going to slow things down, and not allow the Warriors to play at that pace, but even in the slower game, Dallas is going to put up at least 110 points against that defense, and if the game does open up even some, I think we're looking good.
 
i jumped ship on miami and im now oppo. ding ding (bell rings).
an_fight.gif
an_boxing.gif
 
I didnt realize how bad of a coach sam mitchel is,, this game was lost in the first 5 minutes of the 2nd qtr. i know bosh was out with 2 fouls, but he had all hi sbench players in and they could not stop nj defensively and he didnt call a timeout. he waited for the official timeout.. then he doesnt call any set plays and when he did, or looked like he may have, they were poorly designed and horribly executed.
i give credit to nj for coming out strong and going ot the hole every chance the could, thats how you win playoff games, not relying on jumpshots.
 
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