NBA redcon Tuesday

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
First and foremost, I liked the Spurs at -1. Then it moved to +1 overnight. Now it's at +2, and I'm scratching my head. I could buy +123 at MB right now, or I could offer up 125, and I'd probably get that. I already HAVE an offer at 154 up, but that's just in case some overnight moron went ahead and grabbed it early. heh.

mrs.redbearde has the spurs to win by 6 (100 to 94), so we both like it, and that's going to be a redcon play. I've not really done anything with it yet because this sort of move often indicates an injury or food poisoning or something. I'm confused.

Yes, aside from the Mavs game, the Spurs haven't been playing well. And again, yes, aside from the Wiz game the Magic *have* been playing well. But I really thought the Spurs were going to win in Dallas even if Diggler was still in there, and in short, I think they've turned it around for the home stretch. I dunno if they can manage to win 1st in the West (course with no diggler and no Pau Gasol it's a distinct possibility), but there's no doubt in my mind that these West teams know they have got to win games. ...Orlando......not so much.

Spurs won the only meeting this season as a 6.5pt fave on November 21st...128-110. This was in Texas. Now they're at Orlando and getting 2pts? ooooook. a Pick is more like what I expected, and this business of the line moving from -1 to +2 for the Spurs I really really don't understand.

San Antonio is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
San Antonio is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
San Antonio is 2-5 ATS & SU in its last 7 games on the road

San Antonio is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Orlando
San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando

I am also reminded of the Spurs being AT Orlando last year as a 6.5pt fave, and they lost on a last moment tip-in by Howard off an inbounds play...104-106. Anyone else remember that?

Now, yes, the Spurs have pounded them twice since then (holding them to 74 on March 2 07 and scoring 128 this season).......but not on their own court.

If they need any more motivation than their own playoff race, they always have that buzzer loss.

Orlando is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games (losses to Washington & Atlanta)

this should be an interesting matchup as far as 3pt shots are concerned:

San Antonio is third in three points made allowed in the league with 5.2 per game.
Orlando leads the league in three points made with 9.7 per game.

If the Spurs hold the Magic to less than their average 3pt shots made, then the Spurs will be all but certain to win this game.

okay. we have Spurs +120.54.

it may go higher. But I'm impatient.
 
If you're interested....

mrs.redbearde's numbers have

Dallas winning by 18.5 (not accounting for Diggler)
Chicago winning by 10
Utah winning by 20
Portland winning by 3.5

I'm hoping the Bobkitties have a strong first half so I can fade them at halftime for a gameline of just a few points.

she hasn't run New Orleans @ Indiana yet.
 
....and if the wizards line keeps rising, I'll probably be on the Trailblazers.

mrs.redbearde will want me to be...
 
i am not to thrilled with this card. really the only game that stands out is chicago. i love the hawks at home, but not so much on the road. i wouldnt touch dallas with a 10 foot pole. i live in dallas and everyone is writing them off and talking possible lotter pick. kidd trade has really conflicted with their half court style.

i really think spurs and orlando is a coin toss. public is majority on spurs yet the reverse line moves. something is fishy there. i lean orlando if anything.

goodluck with your decision red.
 
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Agree with everything u have to say abt the spurs/magic.........

..........I shud have copyrighted "redcon" before saying it ......... just j/k....

Thanx and GL to u and the mrs
 
i feel more uneasy with spurs like smo1a says than i do with chicago. sure atlanta is athletic and all but they too can go on a stretch where they just look so flat. chicago better at home, atlanta not so great on the road. after atlanta at home tonight chicago travels to philly tomorrow night then back in atlanta friday. they are gonna want this game tonight knowing they got philly tomorrow and atlanta again. they can't come to atlanta knowing atlanta already beat them at home days ago. atlanta is 9-26 on the road.
 
you guys make some good points about Chicago at home...just remember they keep blowing up in the 4th Q. They've won 2 of their last 8 beating Jersey in Chicago and Utah (somehow) in Chicago.

Atlanta, btw, has won 4 of their last 5.

I'm probably not playing that one, but if anything I'd be inclined to take the ML dog.

tuck, always nice to be on the same side as you.
:shake:

BigLion, I haven't copyrighted it yet, you know...you still could. ;)

smo1a, I totally agree about Dallas. I expected the lines to drop significantly. I can't believe they're laying DD here...even against this bunch of scrubs.

Intramurals, MusicCityGambler, let's win it bros.
 
can i get some reference if i took the spurs ML. lol. i'm on spurs red. ML 110 only waiting for possibly 120. won't probably get there. right now i got spurs +2 and ML 110. hitting the ML. let's get this one. if all fails, hackahoward in 4th.
 
well, it's at 125 at matchbook, 115 at bookmaker and theGreek, and it's 120 at 5dimes and pinny (though I hear 5dimes has reduced their limits on reduced juice bets to stupid low levels).

GL bro.
 
good luck with your plays. I will say that I've watched the Blazers the last two nights and I'm shocked at how bad this team plays. Offensive fouls, out of bounds turnovers, shots with 2 seconds on the shot clock and overall indifference at certain points. This is a jump shooting team that has no shot and an adverse reaction to low post play.

The Wizards will exploit this heavily with Caron's drives, Twon's shot and the occasional Stevenson/Mason 3 which will stretch out the d just enough to allow Jamison to make his wide open 2 pointers a few feet outside the paint.

I don't like the idea of the Wizards laying points but judging on the their recent performance its justified.
 
i like wiz -2. might get out of that over bet. anyways, lamarcus aldridge might be out tonight which red had posted. yea they sucked against jv sonics last night. that team knows it's playoff hopes are done. beginning to tank mode. slightly motivated at home, but still not enough. wizards roll by 6-9. wizards can continue to fight to maintain and try to get home court against cavs.
 
guys thanks for the thoughts on the blazers. If the West wasn't so insanely good this year, they'd be in the playoffs.....unfortunately for them, I think trainwreck might be right.

I still think there might be value there tonight, but I'm not playing it without Aldridge, and the last info I see has him doubtful....
 
for the sake of completeness, mrs.redbearde likes the Hornets to win by 13 tonight. I hate laying chalk, I hate laying that much chalk on the road (or I'd have done it with Jersey last night), and it really means expecting a DD win out of the road team.

I'm not that optimistic. They may well do it....or even win by 20. But Indiana's been shooting VERY well recently. And while their defense hasn't been stellar, their shooting alone might keep them in it.

so pass for us there. Might re-evaluate at halftime.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="120%" align=center bgColor=#990000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#c1c1ff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16047</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2007-11-15</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DALLAS</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-2.00</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>189.5</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>105</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>92</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DALLAS</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DALLAS</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>O</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "2";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "2";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "1";var Undercount = "1";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#ccccff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16244</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2007-12-11</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>GOLDEN STATE</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-1.50</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>214</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>96</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>84</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>GOLDEN STATE</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>GOLDEN STATE</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>U</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "3";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "3";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "1";var Undercount = "2";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#c1c1ff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16401</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-01-03</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DENVER</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-2.50</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>198</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>80</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>77</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DENVER</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DENVER</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>U</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "4";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "4";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "2";var Undercount = "2";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#ccccff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16430</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-01-07</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>GOLDEN STATE</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-2.00</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>204.5</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>130</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>121</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>GOLDEN STATE</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>GOLDEN STATE</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>O</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "5";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "5";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "2";var Undercount = "3";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#c1c1ff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16524</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-01-19</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>HOUSTON</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-1.00</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>180</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>83</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>81</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>HOUSTON</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>HOUSTON</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>U</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "6";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "6";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "2";var Undercount = "4";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#ccccff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16583</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-01-28</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>UTAH</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-3.00</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>194</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>97</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>91</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>UTAH</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>UTAH</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>U</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "7";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "7";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "3";var Undercount = "4";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#c1c1ff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16852</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-03-07</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DENVER</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-2.50</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>199.5</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>109</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>96</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DENVER</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DENVER</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>O</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "8";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "8";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "3";var Undercount = "5";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#ccccff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16895</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-03-12</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>NEW ORLEANS</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-1.00</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>184.5</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>100</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>75</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>NEW ORLEANS</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>NEW ORLEANS</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>U</TD></TR><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!--var SUwincount = "0";var SUlosscount = "9";var SUtiecount = "0";var ATSwincount = "0";var ATSlosscount = "9";var ATStiecount = "0";var Overcount = "3";var Undercount = "6";var Tiecount = "0";//--></SCRIPT><TR bgColor=#c1c1ff><TD class=ta21 align=middle>16902</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>2008-03-14</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DETROIT</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>SAN ANTONIO</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>-3.00</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>174.5</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>84</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>80</TD><TD class=ta21 align=middle>DETROIT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
LOL

This year they are 0-9 ATS, and 0-9 SU as a road pup from 1-3.

I value specific number situations like that very little....for one thing, the lines move, so a feller could fiddle with that sort of number quite a bit (not saying that's what you're doing). For another, this line opened at LVSC at Spurs -1. So does it even fit?

here are the games I can find that fit that:

11/15/2007 at Dallas L 105 - 92 L (2) O (189)
01/03/2008 at Denver L 80 - 77 L (2½) U (198)
01/07/2008 at Golden State L 130 - 121 L (1½) O (204½)
01/19/2008 at Houston L 83 - 81 L (1) U (180½)
01/28/2008 at Utah L 97 - 91 L (3) U (193½)
03/07/2008 at Denver L 109 - 96 L (2½) O (200½)
03/12/2008 at New Orleans L 100 - 75 L (0) U (185)
03/14/2008 at Detroit L 84 - 80 L (3) U (174½)

there are scheduling idiosyncracies with these, too...3/7/08 was a 3rd in 4....3/12 and 3/14 were in the midst of a 5 in 7. They lost the last one on the 15th at Philly, too. Jan 28 was another 5 in 7... 19th wasn't, but losing by 2 at Houston while the rockets are in the midst of their historic winstreak and finding asinine ways of winning....is that shameful? I think not. Hell, Jan 7 was the 4th in 5 nights with travel every night.

Let's not overthink the spot.....these are all 40+game winners with 10+ games to go in the season. Several of them are 50 game winners this season. The Jazz have been frickin incredible at home. These are great teams in the NBA this year.

and as we've been saying, the Spurs have underperformed our expectations this year...........or these teams have stepped it up.

The one East team they lost to here was Detroit...that was a damned good game, and it came down to the last few seconds, as I recall.

So no....this situation doesn't concern me in the least. I think I understand my expected value on this bet, and I like it.

The spurs are in the midst of another 5 games in 7 nights. But they did have yesterday off, and fading them at the Clippers makes a lot more sense to me than fading them tonight. play Orlando, and then fly across the country for a 5th in 7? Eep. But do they look ahead? I really don't think anyone in the West can look ahead.

the Spurs could certainly lose tonight - no doubt.......I just think they won't.

:shake:
 
Red

Those are based on closing lines.

Great breakdown.

I want everyone to have the most information possible.
 
I still think there might be value there tonight, but I'm not playing it without Aldridge, and the last info I see has him doubtful....

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</td> <td align="left"> LaMarcus Aldridge-F/C- Trail Blazers</td> <td style="" align="right">Mar. 25 - 6:37 pm et</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td><td style="background: rgb(238, 24, 32) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="14">
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Blazers commentator/blogger Mike Barrett has updated LaMarcus Aldridge's (sprained ankle) status for tonight: Aldridge went through the team's shoot-around and is now likely to play in Tuesday's game.
Aldridge will test the ankle once more before tip-off, but the sprain is mild and it's probably safe to get him into your lineups if you still can.
Source: The Oregonian
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I usually check this thread to make sure I'm not laying points in the wrong game, but this mrs.redbearde stuff has my head spinning.
 
it's not that complex....mrs.redbearde is my wife. mrs.redbearde has a function she runs various numbers through - I'm not clear on what exactly it is, but it has to do with expectations of who wins, defensive efficiencies, total scores vs those efficiencies, and adding all that wacky shit up, she comes up with a perceived winning margin.

she does not account for injuries - usually shouldn't be done much anyway, except in the case of a Lebron, a Nash, or a Kobe.....

but we sorta collaborate. when we both like a play, I've been calling it a redcon play....as an homage to the now largely defunct semcon........at least they're not terribly vocal about doing anything.....except ETG's sister.

hope that clears it all up.

:shake:
 
Where'd she come out on the Bulls, your opinion's too jaded and conservative.
 
you are absolutely right. My opinion on the bulls really is way too bigoted against them...but I'm not entirely convinced by anything I've seen out of them recently that my bigotry is unfounded.

now the Suns....they showed me my bigotry is unfounded...to a degree. The bulls need to put together a good game...not a good 3 quarters. Let me tell you this, tho..........mrs.redbearde's numbers keep me off the Hawks ML today........

GL with your play on that.

:shake:
 
2nd night in a row I go against my initial lean, and I fuck myself.

Red let me borrow a gun. You can pick it out.
 
Nice job on the Spurs, I think your right time for them to close out the year on one of there normal runs and own the west
 
We'll see.....they do have a tough stretch coming up....all the more reason for them to get these winnable games in the East.

:shake:
 
you had the Blazers dead on. Wiz didn't even bother to tie their shoes let alone walk out on the court.

should have just stayed in the hotel.
 
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