NBA redcon 4.1

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
mrs.redbearde likes the 76ers today. if it keeps going up and I can get an appreciable number, then I just might take it. They're battling for playoff position, though, and it may just be best to lay off that one.

I want to play the Nuggets. a lot. I don't want to lay chalk. Looks like I won't have much choice. Suns played 7 guys yesterday. Now they go to Denver to do it again? Oh yeah...that'll work out well for them.

:popcorn:

supposedly, Grant Hill's sore pussy will keep him out again. The loss of Hill is less important than the loss of a competent warm body to play in the rotation.

Phoenix is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

this will be a 4th in 5 for Phoenix. This matters only because there are only 7 competent players that Phoenix can put on the court.

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td colspan="10" valign="top">Phoenix</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2b" width="7%">Pos</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="33%">Player</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="9%">Min</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="12%">FGM-A</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="6%">Pts</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="6%">Ast</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="7%">Reb</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="7%">STL</td> <td class="datahl2b" width="7%">BLK</td> <td class="datahl2b">PF</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell"> F</td> <td class="datacell"> Amare Stoudemire
</td> <td class="datacell">42:00</td> <td class="datacell">12/22</td> <td class="datacell">41</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">14</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell"> F</td> <td class="datacell"> Raja Bell
</td> <td class="datacell">43:37</td> <td class="datacell">5/12</td> <td class="datacell">15</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">10</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell"> C</td> <td class="datacell"> Shaquille O'Neal
</td> <td class="datacell">34:51</td> <td class="datacell">8/13</td> <td class="datacell">20</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">12</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell"> G</td> <td class="datacell"> Steve Nash
</td> <td class="datacell">37:57</td> <td class="datacell">11/18</td> <td class="datacell">36</td> <td class="datacell">8</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datacell"> G</td> <td class="datacell"> Leandro Barbosa
</td> <td class="datacell">31:06</td> <td class="datacell">2/10</td> <td class="datacell">6</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell">4</td></tr></tbody></table>

fuck you bookmaker for waiting until it's at -6 before putting the line back up.

The home team has won SU & ATS in the last 5 straight meetings.
The home team has covered the spread in the last 7 meetings.

Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Suns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.

Nuggets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

If you are thinking of taking the Suns, don't throw money away....take the ML and not the spread. If the Suns cover, then in all likelihood they will win. These teams put up what....22 points in 1 minute or something thoroughly ridiculous like that last night.......6 points is 2 possessions for these two - that's less than 30 seconds of gametime. It's less than 5 seconds of gametime if Reggie Miller steals the inbound pass......but these teams can swing 20pts in a quarter......it does not make sense to sacrifice over a dollar value per dollar wagered over 6 little points.

my nuggets bet is about half filled. wheeeeee.
 
oh yeah. I played the Hornets yesterday afternoon at pk -110. I might sell that off today. mrs.redbearde has that game at a pickem.
 
I wouldn't call the timbies a sure thing by any means, but it strikes me as one of those games they really ought to lose that they fuck up and win.

...as damnably stupid as that may sound.

:shake:
 
nuggets scare me. don't know why. HATE laying chalk.......mrs.redbearde does like it, tho...she has the nugs by 14, and that doesn't include altitude and schedule.
 
Billups is out. Ratliff gonna see more time. Hamilton should be out (atm he is probable).

gl.
 
is this sexy RED?

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Minnesota Timberwolves
4/1/2008 8:05:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line +260 for Game

Select #2 : NBA Basketball
Golden State Warriors
4/1/2008 8:35:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line +350 for Game

Select #3 : NBA Basketball
Phoenix Suns
4/1/2008 9:05:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line +260 for Game

Select #4 : NBA Basketball
Sacramento Kings
4/1/2008 10:05:01 PM - (EST)
Money Line +135 for Game

Amount : Risking 100.00 To Win 2,400.00 USD
 
looks like it's plummeting. fellas, you might want to consider some Pistons here before too awful long...
 
Detroit Pistons
<table bgcolor="#eeeeee" border="0" cellpadding="0" width="700"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#cccccc"> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="10%"> Updated</td> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="22%"> Player</td> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="8%"> Pos.</td> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="8%"> Injury</td> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="12%"> Status</td> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="20%"> Expected Return</td> <td style="padding: 3px; font-size: 9pt;" width="22%"> Comments</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> 4/1/2008 6:39:54 PM </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> Richard Hamilton </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> G </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> Hip </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> OUT </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> 4/1 Richard Hamilton OUT tonight vs. MIN. </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="7" bgcolor="#ffffff">
spacer.gif
</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> 4/1/2008 6:39:26 PM </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> Rasheed Wallace </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> C </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> Undisclosed </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> OUT </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> 4/1 Rasheed Wallace OUT tonight vs. MIN for undisclosed reasons. </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="7" bgcolor="#ffffff">
spacer.gif
</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> 4/1/2008 6:38:45 PM </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> Chauncey Billups </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> G </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> Undisclosed </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> OUT </td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 3px; font-size: 8pt;"> 4/1 OUT tonight vs. MIN for undisclosed reasons. </td> </tr></tbody></table>
 
MOST excellent....

I am a happy redbearde. ...at least until the game starts. I did all I could do - I got great odds with the home team in a game they should have a decent chance at winning.

:thumbsup:
 
MOST excellent....

I am a happy redbearde. ...at least until the game starts. I did all I could do - I got great odds with the home team in a game they should have a decent chance at winning.

:thumbsup:

Right behind you buddy ;)

I loved this play with those guys in (of course did factor some chance that they might be out) but not to such an extent. Well, there is no worry about Jefferson suckfest in D at least because I doubt that anyone else apart from Sheed will cause much trouble for them. Maxiell, Hayes and McDyess should be handled to an OK level. And without Rip and Chauncey those backcourts even out (though I still think Stuckey, Afflalo and Prince are better anyway)...
 
yeah, but I think we have some great odds, man....

great job us.

Even if the twolves lose (they're more than capable of that, y'know...especially if they're tanking), it's a good bet.
 
Of course, but the fact that Stones hardly care about away games now makes me love it, since I have not only ML, but also +7.5 on this one.

3-7 ATS in away games since All-Star break and 0-5 ATS in last 5 just says it all :)
Also 4-6 SU in the same span and 1-4 in last 5 as well. Hardly pushing it :)
 
Yeah, went with Stones -1.5 for 2nd H as well

So now MIN +7.5 and Stones +3.5 make up for a nice 10 point middle (hardly will stay on 0 difference :))and also having Minny ML
 
no I didn't.

Glad I bought the stones 2H. the t'wolves are soooo damned unreliable. if they get a rebound off a missed FT and hit a 3, maybe I get my middle the other way. oh well. Still made a little on the game, I guess.
 
it's hard to believe that Denver's taken 35 FTs already, yet my thoroughly unbiased opinion is that Denver should probably have taken 10 more...at least.

Shaq just held Melo's arm and hip-tossed him to the floor. no call. That sort of shit's been going on an awful lot...
 
well melo missing a FT doesn't help. now if the suns come out of the TO and miss and foul, can't even push. :/
 
well melo missing a FT doesn't help. now if the suns come out of the TO and miss and foul, can't even push. :/

melo's shoulder is fucked up. not sure what the problem is there, but he's having serious issues at the line.

he hit 13 of 19 tonight....that's a bit low for him, really.
 
melo's shoulder is fucked up. not sure what the problem is there, but he's having serious issues at the line.

he hit 13 of 19 tonight....that's a bit low for him, really.

Heard shaq took his shoulder off on a rebound or something down low. how Melo shoot from perimeter afterwards?
 
he didn't do much of that. he kept trying to drive around amare and get fouls.

remarkably.........he didn't get many called. ..........and still took 19 FTs in the game.
 
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