NBA redcon 3.17

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Okay, most folks don't much like the card...that usually means a good ML dog night. At first glance last night, I thought the Knicks, Clips, Hawks, and Cavs might ALL have some good value in them. Then I asked mrs.redbearde her opinions today. First thing that jumped out as that she has the Hawks to win by 6.

figure that out.

So I poked around some and I note that this season Washington has won both matchups in ATL and the Hawks won in DC. Both teams are fighting like mad dogs for a playoff spot, so there should be plenty of motivation on both sides - no weakass bullshitplay in the last 10 seconds (lookin hard at the clippers here) - and I think the Hawks might be ready to go on a little run here with the team pretty much being healthy now.

here's how the history looks:

Hawks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Washington.
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

recently:

Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road

Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

I think better than 2:1 is worthwhile here.

Hawks +205.86

mrs.redbearde also has the Clippers as a pk at minny. Now, T'wolves games cause gastric distress, so I may skip this one regardless, but the Clippers have had some HORRIBLE things happen to them recently...through injuries...adding a shitass motherfucking locker-room wrecking, MORONIC AS FUCK pointguard.......

yet, these are the sort of slam-dunk games that Minny seems to lose so often over the last several years.......

Last word on Kaman is this:

"Chris is going to be out a while," said Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy. "It doesn’t make sense for us to take any risks with him."
Click to expand...

link

and with aaron williams out indefinitely, this leaves the clips playing Fazekas a lot more than some might think is good....

so this is really a bit of gambling to take the Clippers. But, Maggette, Cat, well....fuck, even Al Thornton is questionable...

he is WITH the team, and he was at shootaround...

http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/news/thornton_clippers_in_town_080317.html

but fuck if i know if he'll play and be effective...I do know the Clippers are going to have a helluva time stopping Al Jefferson.
 
Minny has won 2 of the 3 meetings this year.

recent history looks like this:

LA Clippers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
LA Clippers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games
LA Clippers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road

Minnesota is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

eerily similar.

this is also true, and it's not good for the Clips chances:
LA Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
LA Clippers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

but the Clips beat Minny on Dec 31st, then lost to em twice.

get this:

Los Angeles is the second lowest scoring team in the league at 94.1 points per game.
Minnesota is the third worst offensive team in the league at 94.1 points per game.

Los Angeles has the third worst field goal percentage in the league at 43.7.
Los Angeles is third last in the league in three points made with 4.3 per game.
Los Angeles has the second worst rebounds in the league at 40.0.

Smush is a variable. As is Maggette (as always), but Mobley's been pretty reliable.
Al Jefferson is obviously a huge plus for the Twolves. I fear Josh Powell will get creamed...
I do think Dunleavy's the better coach.

yet again...I think i might be able to get 3:1 by gametime for this, and I do indeed think it's worth fading the mighty t'wolves (14-50).......even with this Clippers team.

hmmmmmmmm...if I do play it, I'll want to have Thornton, AND I'll wait until just before tip to play it anyway.

still thinkin...
 
I missed a possession on the Utah/Toronto under, but I'm pretty sold by both Tuck's post and mrs.redbearde's number of 194 (she has 100-94)...though mrs.redbearde is pretty concerned her numbers are off on this, I don't think the total is. I'm thinking it'll be Utah in low 100s (if that much) and Toronto in the mid 80s.

Utah/Toronto Under 213.5 (-111)
 
Boston.

Boston's been playing pretty well. San Antonio not so much.

The only reason I haven't played this one already is that the Spurs really need every win, and Boston doesn't. Still, mrs.redbearde has the Cs by 6, and that's a huge difference between the line and her expectation.

AND it's going up. :)

Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Boston is 5-0 SU & ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Celtics are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog.
Celtics are 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 road games.
Celtics are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog.

San Antonio is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Spurs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.

forget last year's history....these are not the old Celtics.

Still waiting on this one...

Sounds like Ime Udoka is going to play, and Ray Allen is 50/50 for playing.

Even without Allen, I think the Celtics are a good value play on the ML. I know this is the shortest home line we've seen for the Spurs in a loooong time, and Manu's been a beast this year.

BUT...

just remember how well the Spurs have been playing recently...

here's March:

Regular Season

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="11%">Date</td> <td width="21%">Vs</td> <td width="18%">Score</td> <td width="27%">Type</td> <td width="13%">SA Line</td> <td width="10%">O/U</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/15/08</td> <td> @ Philadelphia </td> <td> L 96-103</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -3.5</td> <td> O 177.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/14/08</td> <td> @ Detroit </td> <td> L 80-84</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 3</td> <td> U 174.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/12/08</td> <td> @ New Orleans </td> <td> L 75-100</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -1</td> <td> U 185</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/10/08</td> <td> Denver </td> <td> W 107-103</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -7.5</td> <td> O 200.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/09/08</td> <td> @ Phoenix </td> <td> L 87-94</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -1.5</td> <td> U 202.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/07/08</td> <td> @ Denver </td> <td> L 96-109</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 2.5</td> <td> O 200</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/06/08</td> <td> Indiana </td> <td> W 108-97</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -13</td> <td> O 197.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Click to expand...

They've covered one of the last 9.

NBA:whip:Spurs
 
Last edited:
Gl today Red

Just some thoughts on the above game...I dont think anyone should consider laying the pts with the Spurs until they get out of there funk. Very similar to H-Town.

On the total in Utah with you, will probably playing Boston ML.
 
Speaking of Charlotte....

they won their only meeting with Memphis this year, and that broke streak of NEVER having beaten the Grizz.

Memphis has gotten incalculably worse since then, and the Bobcats have actually been playing better and better.

here is some recent history:

Charlotte is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Charlotte is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Charlotte is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road

Memphis is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games
Memphis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Memphis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Memphis plays ZERO defense:
Memphis has given up the second most points in the league at 106.3 per game.
Memphis has the worst field goal percentage against in the league at 48.2.

Here's the Grizz for the last 2 months:

Regular Season

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="11%">Date</td> <td width="21%">Vs</td> <td width="18%">Score</td> <td width="27%">Type</td> <td width="13%">MEM Line</td> <td width="10%">O/U</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/15/08</td> <td> @ Golden State </td> <td> L 107-110</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 16</td> <td> U 230</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/12/08</td> <td> @ Denver </td> <td> L 86-108</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 16.5</td> <td> U 226.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/11/08</td> <td> @ Phoenix </td> <td> L 111-132</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 13.5</td> <td> O 223.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/08/08</td> <td> Boston </td> <td> L 89-119</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 11</td> <td> O 202</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/05/08</td> <td> New Jersey </td> <td> W 100-93</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 2.5</td> <td> U 200.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/04/08</td> <td> @ Chicago </td> <td> L 97-112</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 11.5</td> <td> O 208</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/01/08</td> <td> Utah </td> <td> L 92-113</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 9.5</td> <td> U 211.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/29/08</td> <td> @ Houston </td> <td> L 95-116</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 13.5</td> <td> O 193.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/26/08</td> <td> Phoenix </td> <td> L 113-127</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 11.5</td> <td> O 216.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/24/08</td> <td> @ Cleveland </td> <td> L 89-109</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 11.5</td> <td> O 195</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/22/08</td> <td> Dallas </td> <td> L 83-98</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 8.5</td> <td> U 197</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/20/08</td> <td> @ L.A. Clippers </td> <td> L 86-100</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 8</td> <td> U 197</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/19/08</td> <td> @ Seattle </td> <td> L 101-108</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 5.5</td> <td> O 204.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/13/08</td> <td> @ Philadelphia </td> <td> L 88-102</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 9.5</td> <td> U 196</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/12/08</td> <td> Sacramento </td> <td> W 107-94</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 5.5</td> <td> U 211</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/09/08</td> <td> @ New Orleans </td> <td> L 99-112</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 14</td> <td> O 202</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/08/08</td> <td> @ Dallas </td> <td> L 81-92</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 12</td> <td> U 201</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/05/08</td> <td> Milwaukee </td> <td> L 97-102</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -4.5</td> <td> O 193.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/02/08</td> <td> Utah </td> <td> L 91-110</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 7.5</td> <td> U 209.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Click to expand...

and Charlotte actually had a nice win streak going on before they faced the top of the western conference...and STILL they were covering.

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"><td width="11%">Date</td> <td width="21%">Vs</td> <td width="18%">Score</td> <td width="27%">Type</td> <td width="13%">CHAR Line</td> <td width="10%">O/U</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/16/08</td> <td> @ Cleveland </td> <td> L 91-98</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 7.5</td> <td> U 195</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/14/08</td> <td> @ Houston </td> <td> L 80-89</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 10</td> <td> U 194</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/12/08</td> <td> @ Dallas </td> <td> L 93-118</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 11</td> <td> O 201</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/08/08</td> <td> @ Washington </td> <td> W 100-97</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 5</td> <td> O 196</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/07/08</td> <td> Atlanta </td> <td> W 108-93</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 1</td> <td> U 204</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/05/08</td> <td> Golden State </td> <td> W 118-109</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 5</td> <td> O 224</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/04/08</td> <td> @ Minnesota </td> <td> W 109-89</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 6</td> <td> U 199.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/02/08</td> <td> Toronto </td> <td> W 110-98</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 3.5</td> <td> O 200</td></tr></tbody></table>
Click to expand...

AND

Charlotte is still maintaining delusions of getting into the playoffs......

I'm liking this one......
 
The Squares/Public whatever we are, will have a general perception that the Char/Memphis game is a "trap" and that Memphis is the play.

Memphis is tied with Minny for the 2nd most losses next to Miami @ 15. If you dont think that redonkalous ownership down theres wants to lose every game your kidding yourself. They recently beat NJ when they came down there, but NJ was still playing extremely bad from the Kidd trade. Memphis is trying to position themselves above Minny as for the most ping pong balls.

As stated above Charlotte has played well recently losing to good teams, but beating poor teams. Personally I think this line is a gift. I probably wont play it because Im done laying any type of chalk for another week or two.
 
Road chalk with Charlotte? Last time they were favored was 2/13 vs ATL laying 1, won by 2 in OT and have never been road chalk.

Only meeting Char had Wallace and Memphis had Gasol but not Miller. That game was only Char -5.5 at home .

Little thing I see I Char last 2 home games that seemed winnable since the trade vs NJN +2.5 and vs Sac +5.5 they won SU. The other games were Boston , Utah , Pho and Dallas. They were also -4.5 vs Milw and lost by 5 SU ( early Feb) and +3 vs Den and lost by 4..which Gasol was traded shortly there after...

Memphis fought back @ GSW and I wonder do they have some momentum carry over....

:shake:
 
Cleveland @ Orlando

Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Orlando is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Orlando is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Orlando is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Orlando is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
Cleveland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Orlando
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Orlando

Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Cavaliers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 Monday games.
Cavaliers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games.

Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Magic are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Neither Cleveland nor Orlando is in a whole lot of danger of moving up or down in the standings. Cavs won the last game in Orlando on Feb 11th as 9.5pt dogs. Ilgauskis is back (pun intended) and healthy. This puts Bob on the bench where his energy is actually useful. Cavs certainly have enough big guys to work on superman, but I don't know about stopping him. But then, Ben Wallace might make containing him a personal job today......or the Cavs may make him work to cover jump-shooters on defense, and that might be about as good.

one thing...the Magic don't play much defense, and there's no way in hell they contain Lebron if he heads for the rim. Also...if he does head for the rim early, then Dwight's going to get in foul trouble. The key, as usual, will be how well the Magic shoots 3s, and will the Cavs either defend that well or try to shoot the 3s with em. Dunno. But at 275, it might be worth a try...

still ruminating...
 
SportsNut said:
Road chalk with Charlotte? Last time they were favored was 2/13 vs ATL laying 1, won by 2 in OT and have never been road chalk.

Only meeting Char had Wallace and Memphis had Gasol but not Miller. That game was only Char -5.5 at home .

Little thing I see I Char last 2 home games that seemed winnable since the trade vs NJN +2.5 and vs Sac +5.5 they won SU. The other games were Boston , Utah , Pho and Dallas. They were also -4.5 vs Milw and lost by 5 SU ( early Feb) and +3 vs Den and lost by 4..which Gasol was traded shortly there after...

Memphis fought back @ GSW and I wonder do they have some momentum carry over....

:shake:
Click to expand...

I realize how bizarre it is to look for laying chalk with the Bobcats on the road. I really do. But fighting back @ GSW isn't a remarkable event......they don't play any defense. the only team who rivals that lack of defense is memphis.

all I'm trying to decide is if I want to lay chalk in points or just take the ML at something like -130. .....the idea of which makes me want to shit my pants and bury my face in it.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Memphis is tied with Minny for the 2nd most losses next to Miami @ 15. If you dont think that redonkalous ownership down theres wants to lose every game your kidding yourself. They recently beat NJ when they came down there, but NJ was still playing extremely bad from the Kidd trade. Memphis is trying to position themselves above Minny as for the most ping pong balls.
Click to expand...

I really like this particular part of it....
 
Not really impressed with the "comeback" vs GSW for the reason you stated . Just think a young team might feel a little better about themselves after that game rather then the usually 30 they lose by. More concerned with Char losing 3 straight and they seem to run in spurts and never been favored away even @ LAC(+1) with the fact Memphis last 2 "winnable" home games they have actually won. This crappola squad managed to beat NJn and Sac who are better then Charlotte so a win today wouldnt be a suprise especially playing the 1 good Half Bobcats...

If you decide to bury your face in shit take some pictures I hear theres a niche market for that. Win or lose at least you can make some money:36_11_6:GL:shake:
 
Bobcats -2.5 (+101.92)

card for tonight:

Hawks +205.86
Celtics +151.9
Utah/Toronto Under 213.5 (-111)
Bobcats -2.5 (+101.92)
 
GL red. I think the Spurs get it done tonight... but if Vegas thought that I think we'd see a slightly higher line. Love to see lines 5.0 - 6.0 for fav's I like... 4's and under make me skeptical.
 
I wanted to play the Jazz/raptors 2H over at 103.5....unfortunately, the MB interface is screwy, and the market vanished mere seconds after it initially appeared. Usually they give at least 15 minutes....
 
Didnt Nut say something about Charlotte being a one half team. Thats pretty prevalent tonight. Nice half 30 pts. Wow
 
omfg...

Robert Horry had a chance to sink a 3 for the win...and he missed. After a FT, Garnett made a TERRIBLE pass trying to go long (to House, I think it was) ...Bowen made a GREAT play to grab it, and immediately sent it to Horry. That's the sort of shit that motherfucker has been hitting for YEARS.

good thing he bricked the hell out of it...
 
1-1 in spreads...made 46 cents (thanks matchbook!).

2-1 in ML dogs...made 2.578 units.

too bad I bet the Cavs. Good thing I didn't get that 2H over.

Happy.
 
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