nba plays
- Thread starter EL CAPO
- Start date
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
gl today Capo
that was the 1 winner lol 1-7 amazing how bad i am at nba so far, never really tried to beat it but it's making me want football already.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t even play them cause when it moved up to +10 it scared me off, didn’t matter how much I like jazz as dogs still wussed out, lol. Still don’t understand it going up to -10, I know it was prob cause Markkanen ended up not playing but I didht think that mattered much, I guess it didn’t but ppl don’t realize that, they see a guy out and drive lines higher.
This really only the second year I’ve tried playing thru most the regular season, shit is definitely tough. Only reason I’m playing it instead of ncaa cause last year I started talking w someone bout the props and got crazy hot playing them, it has not continued like that at all this season, lol. I’m glad baseball almost here, that always been one my better sports but gonna try to stick this out also. Hopefully we get more consistent efforts and results down the stretch when teams start taking things seriously!
You got a great number on that heat/nets total, if you beating lot of closers like that you should get better results. You absolutely had the right idea on that one, freaking nets just shot well above what you would or should reasonably expect. I don’t think they have more than 1 guy shorting 40% from 3 and they hit 17 of them.
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
Looks like you all over which way this one moving also. You ever think bout making live bets looking to middle? I’d bet there plenty of times especially when you beating close by this many points that in game you could find a number 10 or more points different than what you have bet overnight. There should for sure be a way to profit if you continually on right side these things moving, even if they not cashing. i wonder how often they land in the middle of open and close? The reason I suggest live is cause those live lines tend to make huge adjustments that seem totally over reactionary in game, I assume a slow start on a game you beat under by 5-10 points would tend to really drop quick and give you huge gaps to come in on a over with tons of room to cash both. Just a thought
something i'll keep an eye out for - sport like nba i'm not watching live so not something i typically live bet - also live betting tons of games feels little too much like work for me - frankly this also sounds square but the guys that have 15 different books and log into different ones to bet where the line is half point off - man i tried 3 books this year and felt like a pain in the azz. it's also hard to track 1 "bankroll" like that. ..........I'm betting sports because for fun and ease - and not sure the edge is worth the headache imo.
Actually confident I can beat nba openers line movement i'm doing that consistently just not winning consistently - now - i'm pulling my lines from statfox doing my research there and posting - the offshore i use doesn't always have all the line up yet that are on statfox , some of the games they do, some not yet.......the question would be what is the best book that offers most nba lines night before ?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t want to say anything bout volume you betting cause I’m no expert and don’t wanna tell you what you should be doing but I cringe when I see size of your cards some nights. Seems like you have better days w less plays and I gotta tell ya, while I never been very astute w nba I’ve known guys over the years who did really well and the one common thing I remember bout them is none played a lot of games a night. Can’t recall anyone of them playing more than 2-3 most nights, sometimes less. So much crazy shit goes on in nba you bound to run into a lot of the nonsense betting so many games a night. It not like sports you can cap with straight stats cause so much of it is situational and figuring out what team is actually gonna be motivated that day. Sports like ncaa hoops, ncaa football, Mlb I think there way better cases to be made to play bigger cards if you making the right bets, obviously if you playing games you feel you have a edge the more games the better. Not sure there that many nba games a night where there is a edge!! Lol. Just a thought. Even if you disagree I would def caution you about playing big cards right after they come back from the asb as I think you dealing w a lot of unknown when it comes to which teams come back ready to go and which teams stay mentally checked out for longer.
I get the same sense....now keep in mind from someone new to nba betting....I think it's more useful for me to track large cards to help me get a better feel for the league and where the balance is of where that edge is
.....I'm using this thread as an experiment by and large to find the edge
2daBank
Voice of Reason
What I hate bout nba is I think there some situational rules. Another thing I don’t like is playing overnights incredibly risky cause ya never know who gonna be ruled out, one the situational rules is playing on teams missing stars usually a good play but you obviously want to wait until after the masses know the player out cause they never learn and will drive the line creating extra value, jazz last night went from +7.5 to +10, didn’t matter but ya def want all the points you can get!
Stats of any kind seem worthless, you not gonna get the consistent efforts to cap using pace, points, what the player expected output will be. Cause they don’t give consistent efforts on night to night basis, maybe they should get less money if they don’t wanna be bothered so often! Find the few games a day you have a reasonable amount of confidence you will get the effort and the matchup very favorable if you lucky enough the team interested that night! we should def get more of these consistent efforts as there only 25 or so games left after the asb, some these teams gonna lock in and go on a run to better set themselves up for playoffs! Try and figure out the teams you think in that boat, I think lakers are gonna start winning some games, suns for sure, golden state if curry comes back, memphis I think. Then always look for the bad spots, B2b in Utah then Denver, 1st gane home from long trip, last game of a long road trip, lots of spots I think you fade or pass. Jazz been incredible as dogs, not so great when laying points, I rather cap stats but don’t think that the way to beat nba.
Great post. Can I get a mlb guide too haha
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If you look in my nba thread already started ranting bout Mlb and the changes. Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You think new look lakers d will improve? I think they get themselves into playoffs so maybe this the right way to go: my only thing is before the moves they were brutal defending pg’s, so was looking at Poole props, not sure russell a great defender but he athletically gifted enough, coach Ham job gonna be to get the guys they brought in to buy In on the defensive side so bron can be a floater and get rest on that side, and of course getting Davis to give 100% every night!
warriors without curry just aren't that good and lebron gonna make a push after the trade and post asb imo - trades a big upgrade imo vanderbilt can really play some d and russ is a losing chucker with horrible shot selection - the difference in triple doubles between him and jokic is crazy jokic's passes look way better i don't even know how russ gets assists i don't see him make any good passes
Lol how have the bulls lost 5 or 6 in a row...seems like roster has some talent. More offensive talent then the collection of role players the nets have. ...i just dont think the nets have any dudes....they got "others" as Shaq says but not dudes. That wins in college not nba. u play Lotta props u ever play fantasy bball ? Guessing it'd help.. I've had kessler and jaylin williams all year and picked up branham and mark williams few weeks ago.
Whoever wins bet is come join my league next year for fantasy need some better competition
