NBA Playoffs

F

Fred57

The Star of Nightmare on Elm Street

YTD 25-21-2 Playoffs 20-15-2​

Den un 206.5 -110 .25* Loser
OKC/Bos 1st Q ml +125 .25* Loser
OKC -4.5 .25*Loser
Den +2.5 -115 .25* Loser
Bos under 223.5 .25* Winner
Dal under 212 .25* Winner
Bos -6 -105 .25* Winner
1st Q o 55 -115 Loser
Dal -1.5 1st Q -115 .25* (odds booster +130) Loser
1st Q o54.5 -120 .25* Winner
Dal/un213.5 +205 SGP No Sweat .25* (win/win for me) Push
BOS -1.5 +100 1.0*
Over 212.5 +105 .25*

Action Plays 8-10​

BTTS o 99.5/Indy ml/Nesmith o 9.5 pts. +250 Loser
Dal ml/un 209.5 +210 I used a boost +278
More pts 2nd H -.5 +165 Winner
BTS 25+ 1st Q +115 Loser
Bos ml/Lively 5+R's/Horford 1+3 +115 Winner
Dal/Dal 4thQ and FG ml +425 Loser
Lively 5+R's/Gafford 5+R's/Horford 1+ 3 +110 Loser
Lively 5+/Horford 1+/Holiday 5+R's +105 Loser
GL!!!!
 
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Yeah I do like rainy afternoon naps. I hope it helped. Posted a play above. That is what is out there now. I haven't taken it yet but will use that #. I think I can get a better # live and will be looking for + $ on Den. Like OKC last night, If they lose tonight Min in 6. I picked Den to win the series and still believe they will. I have an open parlay Indy/Indy that I will not count. I'm not as confident with NY. I'm going to wait and see with this game. I found sometimes throwing 3 or 4 $ on big ml during games can payoff. GL!!!!
 
My posted play lost but as I stated above, I took -210.5 live and won just barely. I will no longer pre-post. 3 out of 4 times I lose posted and win actual bet. I hate stating after the fact. So from now going forward I will only post made plays. Liked both outcomes last night. I like both home teams 1st Q and H. 14.5 with a Bos team who will play enough to win looks really high. I think OKC grew some nuts last game and it carries over into tonight early. Posted 1 play and will be back with 1 more. GL!!!!
 
Added OKC above. I will be looking for live opportunities in the Bos game. Like the under in OKC and will try to get a better #. I will also be looking for a better under # in the Bos game. GL!!!!
 
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I'm done for the night. I'm not sure if its the weather or the mountains but some of these sites (DK & MGM) are driving me batty. Every time a # gets to where I want it, BOOM...either suspended or frozen screen....ugh!!!!!!!! I tried 3 times to get Cle +16.5, 3 damn times. I was hesitant taking 1st half Bos picks tonight and happy to get a push with the ml Bos 1stQ. Down 2 a single bet OKC -145 1st Q. I stated above my worries with them is their tendencies to play just enough to win. If the ml ever gets to a decent # I would take it. GL!!!!
 
After a lot of frustration, I got some of the #'s I wanted last night. Won't count. 0-2 night posted. Anybody else feel that Bos could have shut down Cle any time they wanted to. I think OKC is toast now. I've looked at this game a couple of times now and still can find no reason to take either Den or Min. Another thought I've been having lately is betting pre-game/ live betting. I track groups of 20 games. Pre-game bets 7-13, live bets 14-6. The stats seem completely useless at this point. Last night great example with OKC. Pre-game -4/-4.5, within minutes -2.5. Granted if you took 2.5 you still would of lost. Totals in Bos open i think 204, half way thru 2nd 215.5. I liked the under so I took the 215.5 winner. The only downside I can see is never getting the #'s you want and losing out. Not sure if I will post a play or not. Looking at some props. GL!!!!
 
I decided to take the pts. Den #'s are actual a tad better on the road and Min #'s lean better to road games. All day today friends saying Den and over. That worries me a lot. My friend in CT is on the same. He has been a big help to me with CBB and NBA. He sucks like non other in baseball. I'm going to wait and see with the total and go with the flow of the game. That usually works out for me. GL!!!!
 
Another posted loser. Defending NBA Champs score 70, let me repeat that 70 pts. What an embarrassment to the sport. As I stated yesterday pre-game betting for me is a waste of time capping and money. If you were on Min, within 3 minutes they were at +6.5. If you like me had Den and didn't hedge out real fast, like 1st Q you lost big time. Pre-game I was leaning over, but halfway into 1st Q that game had under feel to it all the way and they were still hanging 201/204.5. In my opinion live betting during these playoffs is the safest and best way to go. FOR ME. Since this is my 1st year betting full time I didn't follow NBA at all. I'm hoping REG season is more consistent then these playoffs. I want CBB back. Enough venting for now. I will not post plays everyday, but will post some AP's. GL to everyone going forward!!!!
 
Nesmith lost my AP. 1st 2 hit with both over 99.5 and the Indy ml hit. I have 1 AP for today so far Dal ml/un 209.5. Be back later with 1 or 2 more. GL!!!!
 
I'm not posting a play but will say that I like OKC tonight and the over. I will be shopping for live opportunities. GL tonight regardless of who you have!!!!
 
Had a good night all around yesterday. Have to admit live betting has its downside. Was able to get two over bets in but missed out on getting a OKC bet in. OKC fast start moved the # in the wrong direction and I got gun shy and never pulled the trigger. I really blew it when they threw out +10.5 for Dal and didn't jump on that. live and learn. Not sure what I'm doing for today but I do lean both home teams. Indy is the ? for me. GL!!!!
 
Not big on soccer but if I see something I say something. I'm throwing $10 on Newcastle/Real Madrid DNB ml +167. Start for RM is 11am. GL!!!!
 
I'm so happy that I didn't watch, see or hear any basketball games yesterday. I checked the scores this am and knew I would have lost money. I hit my goal for the day with some soccer and baseball plays. Congrats to all the winners and today is a new day to all the losers. I will more than likely post a play or 2 during the rest of the playoffs but will be trying to get better in MLB. I hope I'll be around for full seasons in CBB and NBA this year. I didn't jump in until NC went legal in March and trying to learn on the fly. NBA in the playoffs is sketchy and it didn't seem team stats meant anything. I made a lot of betting mistakes and left a lot of money on the table. I will do my homework and hope to be a positive contributor to the forum. I also want to give thanks to the many good cappers in here for their informative posts. GL and see you in the MLB!!!!
 
Posted play above. I'm hoping Bos shuts Indy down early like they should of in the 1st 3 games. GL!!!!
 
Had a really good night, 1-0 posted. Tripled down on the under last night with 229.5 and 225.5 live along with my pre-game 223.5. Will be looking at tonight's game. GL!!!!
 
Been trying to find a reason to like Min tonight....I just can for no reason see them winning. All my buddies (the same that all dumped a ton of future $$$ on Min) all say "No way 2 sweeps"....Min has to much to prove..... I just don't see it. I say why would Dal want to prolong the series and leave home with Bos resting. I will post a play in a bit. I think this will be a wait and see which team wants it more. Either way live will get the best pts tonight. Similar to last night's game 1st Q winner wins the game. Just some thoughts. GL!!!!
 
1-0 posted play. Like I mentioned, 1stQ winner wins the game. I did take Dal at +4.5 for an action play and lost. See you 2morrow. GL!!!!
 
Looking over tonight's game. I may just like last game, post a total and live bet the points. GL!!!!
 
I'm not going to force a posted play on this game. I think the total # is too close to call for me. I lean under and will be searching for something higher. I was wrong with Dal last game and my pal up in CT let me know it. I'm leaning against him again tonight. I'm trying to convince him to sign up here and post. He doesn't belong or post anywhere. Says it no one's business what he bets...lol says I don't tell my wife why would I tell anyone else. He always tells me after tip off. Usually sends me a screen shot. I played a couple of AP's in case I don't get my live #'s. The 2nd H bet is a gut feeling bet only. The 4 games have split with only G3 being lobsided 2nd H and G1 losing by a pt. For $5 I like the +165. The last game was the only game where 1 team fell under 25 1st Q. Again for +115 I'll risk $5. I'm still looking at a 1st Q bet and might parlay Min -160 with a prop play with Conley or Gabbard. GL!!!!
 
1-1 on the AP's hitting the +165 2nd H pts and losing 1st Q BTS 25. Min needed 7 pts with 5:43 on the clock and got 1 and I repeat 1 pt in nearly 6 minutes. What a joke. Unposted I lost with the under 219.5 and won with Dal -2.5. Now it's a waiting game until next week. GL!!!!
 
The finals are here. I haven't even looked since last week. Leaning Bos early. I did an SGP Bos -6.5/ Bos o214.5 last week, AP. Will be back with my plays later. GL!!!!
 
I'm taking Bos tonight -6 at Ceasars, it popped up to 6.5 -105 just as I was logging off. I like the under and I see that's up to 217.5. I'll wait and see with that and hopefully grab something in the mid + 20's. I also will be looking for a possibly 4qt under if the game goes right. I have to sub tonight in cards so may not be able to post any more plays. GL!!!!
 
Great night in sports all around. As mentioned above, Bos early, Bos game, 4qt under and game under. It would have been even better if I wasn't playing cards. Missed chasing the under down. Be back in a couple days. GL!!!!
 
Nice to have a game today. Just started looking at the game and an AP jumped out at me. Follow with caution, I will list this as action, but I will more than likely add to it. This game is a little harder for me to read given past G2 results. VC had a good post regarding energy and past G2 results worth a read. Normally I side with Bos and 1st half plays but tonight I may wait and see how the 1stQ goes. It all comes down to how Dal handles the D early and what level of energy they play at. I hate 214 as a # and I see it is up 215.5 at some. Usually if I like a total, I jump early with scoring swings. Tonight I think waiting is the smarter move. I'll be back if I have a play. GL!!!!
 
I'm going with 1st Q pts over 55. If you are a Dal backer there are 2 prop plays, I would take a look at. Dal/Dal 1stQ/ML and the same for the 4th Q. Both are +425. I AM NOT A DAL BACKER. Just see value in both of these and a good bail out. My leans are the under and Boston -6.5 and will be looking for live opportunities. GL whoever you back!!!!
 
Lost my posted play but I'm ok with that. Great night with both the under 213.5 and-4.5. I lost out on the early 218.5 but still felt good with what I got with the way the game was going. 4thQ under continues to hit. Ap's went 1-1 and added to the one mentioned above. Both lively and Horford covered 1st h. Looking forward to game 3 See in a few days. GL!!!!
 
Game day is here...yeah!!!! The total is stuck at 213 with 212.5 at a couple places and I believe it opened at 212. I was leaning over but this makes me wonder. It looks like the last game where the over and Dal are taking the #'s. Some changes in the lineup with the Porzingis thing but Horford is capable as long as he can get well timed rest. The injury and being at home might be the lift that Dal desperately needs to steal a win. We will see. Be back later with my picks GL!!!!
 
Fred57 said:
Game day is here...yeah!!!! The total is stuck at 213 with 212.5 at a couple places and I believe it opened at 212. I was leaning over but this makes me wonder. It looks like the last game where the over and Dal are taking the #'s. Some changes in the lineup with the Porzingis thing but Horford is capable as long as he can get well timed rest. The injury and being at home might be the lift that Dal desperately needs to steal a win. We will see. Be back later with my picks GL!!!!
Click to expand...
I think it's a little psychologically deflating to get Porzingis back and then lose him again. To me, they're not presenting quite the same aura. I' m not saying they won't show up, though. I favor Dallas, but with the caveat that this game is a tough call for me.
 
I've been trying to convince myself that the over is the right play, but I'm not. The lack of line movement concerns me, up at some 213.5. I have a no sweat SGP max bet $25 that I'm going to use as a hedge. I agree Stew, game is a tough call. They keep baiting by inching the line, up to 3 at some sites. I'm doing the wait and see and make my calls live. Adding a couple plays, hope to add an AP or 2. GL!!!!
 
My thoughts on this game. Dal comes out swinging and drives the total up into the low 20's. Spread goes plus double digits. Grab Bos and points and under. The End GL!!!!
 
I'm really going to miss NBA next week. It has been very good to me. My read on these last few games has been spot on. I'm pissed at the fact that I didn't take Dal at +13.5 and I didn't chase the under, but I'll take what I got and be happy. I looked at the 4th Q and it was down to 50.5 so I laid off which is strange for me. My posted went 1-1 and 0-2. Lively and Horford covered, Holiday got stuck at 4 and I needed 5. Be back for what should be the final game GL!!!!
 
Will tonight be the last game of the season? I hope not but if it all depends on Dal...NO...If Bos lays up for a home party YES. I think 2 ways, either Bos decides to not risk the unknowns and just bring it to an end, or they decide to give the home fans a treat. I'll be back with my picks and thoughts on the game closer to gametime GL!!!!
 
I'm sticking with the better team tonight. I'm also thinking we get the 1st over tonight. Full disclosure with my posted plays, I've been blessed this season by the basketball gods. In all honesty, I've been playing with house money since CBB. If I lose tonight, I will dbl up next game. My thoughts on the game as I stated above, Bos will decide, and the 1st Q will be all telling. Normally, I would take the team in need 1st Q (like the last game), but I'm laying off those bets with this game. I think over hits tonight regardless of who wins. If Dal can take advantage of Bos scoring droughts and SCORE some pts rather than match the drought, they have a chance which will keep it close, and fouls will help the over. Remember, someone is wrong 50% of the time. Regardless of the outcome, I've really enjoyed my 1st year of full time/fun time capping here at CTG. It has definitely been a learning experience and there are many here to learn from. Looking forward to next season in both CBB and NBA. As some know, I didn't jump in until March took a little to catchup. Next year my record keeping will be more accurate and will try to include more live bets. Thanks to all that stopped by and GL!!!!
 
0-2 posted plays. I may of read the 1st 3 right but I was off on this one. Dal did what they needed to do and Bos laid down. I was right about the 1st Q forecasting the game. I've noticed a few times now while live betting something worked out both times I played it. When only 1 team is scoring, and the total goes up like last night, Bos went stagnant, Dal scored 6 pts in a minute and a half and the line jumped from 211.5 up to 214.5. To me a confusing line movement opposite what I would think. Anyway, we have one more game (who knows) to look at. Congrats to all the Dal backers and see you Monday GL!!!!
 
I'm good fade stuff the last couple days. Waiting again to see how the 1st Q goes. My brain, the stats and home court advantage all point to Boston winning in a defensive battle. The live #'s I'll be looking for is Dal +12/15 and totals near 220. I think Dal will try again to win the 1st Q but I think Boston shuts them down. I'm playing a stupid bet at Fanatics, I only use it for these type of bets. Will not count in record 10/130 Bos to win all 4Q's +1300.
Dal +2.5 -115 1st Q 50/43.84
GL!!!!
 
Fred57 said:
I'm good fade stuff the last couple days. Waiting again to see how the 1st Q goes. My brain, the stats and home court advantage all point to Boston winning in a defensive battle. The live #'s I'll be looking for is Dal +12/15 and totals near 220. I think Dal will try again to win the 1st Q but I think Boston shuts them down. I'm playing a stupid bet at Fanatics, I only use it for these type of bets. Will not count in record 10/130 Bos to win all 4Q's +1300.
Dal +2.5 -115 1st Q 50/43.84
GL!!!!
Click to expand...
Good luck Fred
 
Great way to end the season. 0-1 posted sucks but that's gambling. I got the #'s I wanted but took Dal -16.5 to early and had to bite the bullet on that one. 10 minutes later they had 24.5 out there. I jumped early on the under at 214.5 thinking it might be the only chance and then that shot up to 222.5. Live went 2-1. SEE EVERYONE NEXT SEASON GL!!!!!!!!!!
 
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