NBA Playoffs Saturday

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
I won't be playing many larger-sized unit games this Playoff season. And I will be especially cautious in betting game 1's in round 1. Most of these series' are very intriguing and unpredictable to me. I don't have many recommendations on how to play the playoffs. I wouldn't get carried away, personally. Bet smaller sized units throughout the playoffs. The playoffs is a mini-season of its own. Don't get carried away early on. And just focus on the special spots that will become available. I think the big money plays will come later in the playoffs when series' like Dallas vs. Pheonix, Pheonix vs. San Antonio, Dallas vs. San Antonio, Detroit vs Cleveland become available. These series' should go deep into 6 or 7 games, and certain spots will become available.

I'll add some more in-depth thoughts for Saturday's match-ups in the up-coming day, but for now I just wanted to post one play that will only rise from now til tip time.

New Jersey Nets / Toronto Raptors OVER 191 (2 Units) (L)

I will have more thoughts on this game and others posted before Saturday.

GL :cheers:
 
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These are my 1st round predictions:

East:

Detroit in 5 games

Orlando isn't very good offensively. They also have serious PG issues. Jameer Nelson has been sitting down the stretch at the end of the season. And PG issues are definately not what you want when facing Billups. Orlando relies heavily on Howard inside, and Detroit has a bunch of bodies they can throw at him.

Cleveland
in 4 games

I hate Cleveland, but this series will be a joke. Cleveland excels when they can get out and run. I've posted the ridiculous SU and ATS #'s this season when scoring over 100 points. It's over 80%. I see them getting a lot of easy chances on Washington. Washington also has no inside presence, and Cleveland should dominate the glass.

New Jersey
in 6 games

NJ is healthy now (Jefferson still isn't 100%, but he's still a force). If NJ was healthy all year, and started the season this this current line-up, they would have won the Atlantic. So, I consider NJ as the 3 seed here, and Toronto as the 6. Toronto's transition defense is below-average, and NJ really started to run late in the year. I see NJ continuing to push the ball, as they certainly have the personel to do so. Kidd will dominate Ford in this series. Mikki Moore should be able to match-up with Bosh's quickness. I just don't see Toronto matching up well with the NJ wing players. Carter should have a monster series.

Chicago in 6 games

Miami is entering the playoffs very banged up. Wade, Haslem, and Payton were all hurt down the stretch. I think Chicago will be able to get out and run in this series. Miami should have major problems defending the Bulls backcourt. Whoever controls the glass will win this series, and I believe the Bulls athleticism will win over on Miami's older team.

West:

Dallas in 5 games

Golden St. really has no chance on the road in this series. Dallas' focus is ONLY on winning a title. Dallas should be able to slow this game down. But if it is played a fast tempo, Dallas is just as quick as Golden St. The Warriors have no answer for Nowitzki or Howard inside. I see GS going down 2-0 early, and Dallas taking game 3. At that point, the Warriors confidence will be deflated.

Phoenix
in 5 games

The Lakers defense is what will kill them in this game. This team simply CANNOT defend. Farmar will help somewhat at the PG spot as a starter, but the Suns are just too quick for the Lakers. The only way the Lakers can stay competitive in this series is if Odom steps up. But Diaw and Marion match-up very well with him, so I just don't see it. Bell should do an adequate job defending Kobe all series, not allowing him to win the series by himself. Byum and Brown are way too slow to defend Stoudamire, who should have a huge series. I honestly think Turiaf should start Center, and get 35+ minutes a game this series.

Denver
in 7 games

I have a hunch here. Denver played well down the stretch, and won some pretty big road games. I think if they can get a win early in San Antonio in game 1 or 2, that will give them major confidence in this series. The Spurs are a slow team, that's nothing new. I think Denver will be able to get out and run in this series. The X-factor(s) here is Nene and Camby. I think if Nene can stay out of foul trouble, he can defend Duncan in single coverage. Without a real presence at Center for the Spurs, Camby should have some freedom on defense, and I think he can shut down the drives by Manu and Parker. Iverson is KILLING to get back to the playoffs. I think he is going to dominate this series. Late in the game, when the game becomes a half-court game, Melo and AI will dominate down the stretch.

Houston in 6 games

I admit I liked Utah after they beat Houston in Houston a few weeks ago. But since then, they have played terrible. They really needed to beat Phoenix at home late in the season, and they ended up losing by 20. Houston is a strong road team, and I'm confident that they can win in the tough atmosphere in Utah. Luther Head is back after an injury mid-season. He really extends the defense and can hit open shots when Yao is doubled. I think Houston's ability to shoot the 3 should win them this series. Utah is not a very good offensive team. I think Houston will be able to score some points in this series, and of course, Houston's D will be there every game.
 
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i knew you would be on that.

I had the privilege of watching Iverson single-handedly carry a team of no names to the NBA finals. And I seen him win a finals game by himself. Iverson is the best player in this series. I know for a fact he can't wait for this series. I really like the fact that these two teams met last year. Since then, the Spurs have declined a bit. And Denver is much improved. Denver finished the season by winning some really close games down the stretch. They proved that Anthony and Iverson can can be a huge factor in the half-court set, and that was something Denver didn't have last year.
 
chicago winning round 1 is seeable. chicago took them to 6 last year in a road series. chicago is better this year, miami is worse. i can see your rationale there.

and i figured you would say something like that regarding AI, since you from phila.

stern having his big market names advance is the name of teh game. denver has two spurs have ... duncan? ducan and the spurs are two years ago news tho.

the king will single handidly carry his team in the east like you descirbed AI doing in years past.
 
Nugs-Spurs was 2 years ago..

also.everyone..CHI was better last year sans the progress of Deng..just watch..Ben makesd this team much less dangerous
 
I also worry about Chicago being able to shake off the final season loss. Looking into the Heat game 1.
 
I also worry about Chicago being able to shake off the final season loss. Looking into the Heat game 1.

chicago does well shaking off bad road losses when at home next game bro. i had a thread up with it a while back. their 5-0 ats in those spots. but the playoffs are another monster and that trend is for the reg season.

in other words i havent a clue what to expect. last year nobody expected anything from us this year people are. i know what to expect from us in the dog role but not the fav role.

then youve got this hatred that is spewing between these two teams.

if i had to i say we lose in 7.
 
Gutsy play on the Nuggets, I won't say it's chanceless, as I don't think it is, but when you said you've seen AI carry the team singlehandedly to the finals, that was East buddy.

Furthermore, the Nuggets MIGHT be playing their best basketball of the season right now, but they still have to mature as a team I think. They don't have many inexperienced guys (rookies) but they're a newly assembled bunch.

I think Spurs win in 6, but you can be sure whose thread I'm going in to congratulate if Denver wins this.

:shake: GL with your other plays, I like a lot of what you said, and will post my plays and previews tomorrow.

Cheers, have a good postseason buddy.
 
:cry: I was 1.99 units short of a hundred, dating since late December when I started posting my plays :D
 
lol indeed :D

I actually think the odds are a bit stretched here, don't think in all honesty Denver should be 7.15 to advance, fair price would be 4.50-5.00 or similar. But not 7.

Let me tell you something, I can see Denver advancing over SA but I can't see GSW getting passed Dallas. After all one upset has to occur, and the Nuggets are playing some impressive ball.

GL
 
Mo' Town ML Parlay (Risking 5 Units to win 3.27 Units): (W)


Detroit Pistons ML -550

Detroit Red Wings ML -250
 
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Really tough loss in the early game with a dead 4th Q. And that is the exact reason Im not betting many plays for many units this early. Its way too unpredictable.
 
am i dumb if i bet the Bulls to win game 1 but have the Heat winning the series?
 
Nope, but I think Bulls win the series. :cheers:
:pillow:

also other series bets i have Nets and Nuggets gotta love that value with Denver

i like that 4th Q from the Raptors i think it sharps up for a nice game 2 bet on them
 
Nice effort from Wade down the stretch to win the big 2H play. Red Wings also get the job done. So, I got a lot riding on Detroit SU. Also would like to get the 1H play, too.

GO PISTONS!!!
 
whats your take on teh movement in teh total in houston/utah? does it look like a walters' move to you?
 
whats your take on teh movement in teh total in houston/utah? does it look like a walters' move to you?

I don't have much of a take on that game's total, but it seems to me that 6.5 points is way too much to lay with Houston. I'd say I expect a defensive, low-scoring series though.
 
Should be a very profitable day if Detroit can hang on and win SU. I'm going to try 1 more tonight, and if it loses, I'll probably take the Jazz 2H line.

Utah Jazz 1H +3.5 (1 Unit) (W)
 
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