NBA playoffs round 3
- Thread starter smh212
- Start date
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
5/21/13
YTD: 17-16 +4.95 units
Greetings from the high seas. Coming back w/ the Grizzlies tonight, will add ML once available.
MEMPHIS +5.5 (.75)
My line Sa -3
Throw away game in game 1. Grizzlies are used to being down 1-0 in a series, so nothing new there. I like their chances to even up the series tonight.
Good Luck.
YTD: 17-16 +4.95 units
Greetings from the high seas. Coming back w/ the Grizzlies tonight, will add ML once available.
MEMPHIS +5.5 (.75)
My line Sa -3
Throw away game in game 1. Grizzlies are used to being down 1-0 in a series, so nothing new there. I like their chances to even up the series tonight.
Good Luck.
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Friday 5/24
YTD: 18-16 +5.70 units
Large 4th qtr comeback by Memphis allowed me to get the cover. I did see some flaws in that comeback that has me second guessing Memphis in game 3, but more on that later.
PACERS +7.5 (.6) and PACERS +310 (.15)
My line: Mia -6
Sat out game 1 to get a feel for the series, and it was apparent that Indiana BELIEVES they belong. The heat missed a good amount of shots that usually make (Allen and Battier a combined 1/12 from 3), but they also got 16 pts from the Birdman. I expect another closely contested game, and look for the Pacers to take one in Miami.
D.WEST OVER 25, -120 Rebs+Pts (.75)
In their 4 meeting this year West has put up the following totals:
25, 29, 31, 37. Moreover he has shot a very nice percentage from the floor. At minimum I see a 17 and 9 effort tonight.
I bought the Spurs at +5.5, as I believe the line was artificially inflated due to the Parker calf news. I think this line settle back down to 4.5 when all is said and done at which point I will buy back on Memphis.
Good Luck.
:badass:
YTD: 18-16 +5.70 units
Large 4th qtr comeback by Memphis allowed me to get the cover. I did see some flaws in that comeback that has me second guessing Memphis in game 3, but more on that later.
PACERS +7.5 (.6) and PACERS +310 (.15)
My line: Mia -6
Sat out game 1 to get a feel for the series, and it was apparent that Indiana BELIEVES they belong. The heat missed a good amount of shots that usually make (Allen and Battier a combined 1/12 from 3), but they also got 16 pts from the Birdman. I expect another closely contested game, and look for the Pacers to take one in Miami.
D.WEST OVER 25, -120 Rebs+Pts (.75)
In their 4 meeting this year West has put up the following totals:
25, 29, 31, 37. Moreover he has shot a very nice percentage from the floor. At minimum I see a 17 and 9 effort tonight.
I bought the Spurs at +5.5, as I believe the line was artificially inflated due to the Parker calf news. I think this line settle back down to 4.5 when all is said and done at which point I will buy back on Memphis.
Good Luck.
:badass:
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
5/25
YTD: 19-17 +5.86 units
My play: SPURS +5.5 (2) and MEMPHIS – 2 (1[SUP]st[/SUP] qtr)
My line: Mem -4 180
Tonight’s WCF game 3 is easily the most conflicting game of these playoffs for me. When the game opened at 4.5 life was simple as I was going to pass the game. Then on 5/23 around 4:30 est there was a move to 5, followed immediately with a move to 5.5. My thought was that the bump was due to the uncertainty surrounding Tony Parker and the MRI on his calf. When the news broke on Friday that he was fine and was going to play, I pulled the trigger on San Antonio for twice my normal bet with the thought that the market would correct itself and eventually close at 4.5 closer to game time, affording me the opportunity (albeit a small one) for a middle. That part was easy. The difficult part is going to be letting the Spurs +5.5 ride, as it goes against one of my core values when betting the NBA playoffs, which would have me on Memphis to win the game. However, I wasn’t willing to pay the 4.5 price on Memphis when the game opened, because I believed the number to be .5 pt inflated due to the Memphis 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comeback to force OT at the end of game 2. My eyes told me that the comeback in game 2 had just as much to do with the Spurs inability to hit shots they typically make as it did with the heart and desire that Memphis has shown all playoffs long. The Spurs scored 31 and 30 pts respectively in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarters before dropping a playoff low 9 pts in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP].
In summary, I like Grizzlies to come out strong to start the game, hence the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter bet. Teams trailing 0-2 in a series typically come out fired up in front of their home crowd in game 3. After that, I expect things to settle down. My goal is to keep my standard unit on the Spurs +5.5 and hope for a buyback with Memphis at 4.5 creating a small middle with the second unit I have already invested in San Antonio.
Notes:
Good Luck.
:shake:
YTD: 19-17 +5.86 units
My play: SPURS +5.5 (2) and MEMPHIS – 2 (1[SUP]st[/SUP] qtr)
My line: Mem -4 180
Tonight’s WCF game 3 is easily the most conflicting game of these playoffs for me. When the game opened at 4.5 life was simple as I was going to pass the game. Then on 5/23 around 4:30 est there was a move to 5, followed immediately with a move to 5.5. My thought was that the bump was due to the uncertainty surrounding Tony Parker and the MRI on his calf. When the news broke on Friday that he was fine and was going to play, I pulled the trigger on San Antonio for twice my normal bet with the thought that the market would correct itself and eventually close at 4.5 closer to game time, affording me the opportunity (albeit a small one) for a middle. That part was easy. The difficult part is going to be letting the Spurs +5.5 ride, as it goes against one of my core values when betting the NBA playoffs, which would have me on Memphis to win the game. However, I wasn’t willing to pay the 4.5 price on Memphis when the game opened, because I believed the number to be .5 pt inflated due to the Memphis 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comeback to force OT at the end of game 2. My eyes told me that the comeback in game 2 had just as much to do with the Spurs inability to hit shots they typically make as it did with the heart and desire that Memphis has shown all playoffs long. The Spurs scored 31 and 30 pts respectively in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarters before dropping a playoff low 9 pts in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP].
In summary, I like Grizzlies to come out strong to start the game, hence the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] quarter bet. Teams trailing 0-2 in a series typically come out fired up in front of their home crowd in game 3. After that, I expect things to settle down. My goal is to keep my standard unit on the Spurs +5.5 and hope for a buyback with Memphis at 4.5 creating a small middle with the second unit I have already invested in San Antonio.
Notes:
- Memphis has grabbed 29 offensive rebounds to the Spurs 11 through two games.
- The Spurs have posted 30+ points in 4 of the 8 quarters played this series. The Grizzlies have posted 1.
- Memphis has scored 46 and 54 pts in the second half of games 1 and 2 respectively (not including OT) compared to 31 and 47 pts in the first half respectively.
- Kawhi Leonard has scored in double figures in 11 straight playoff games
Good Luck.
:shake:
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Absolutely. Taking the Spurs went against my core betting behavior, but at the end I felt the sharps who drove it to that number went too far. Of course I backed out a unit hoping for the side, but in the end it still hit. Sometimes you gotta step out of your comfort zone. Wish I did it more often.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
5/26 NBA Action
YTD: 21-17 +7.36 units
Back to the WCF we go for an elimination game.
MEMPHIS -2.5 (3)
My line: Mem -3.5
My original number when these teams headed back to Memphis for this series was in the range of 4 to 4.5. I've shaded my line down a .5 due to the fact that the Spurs are clearly the better team. However, before we get ahead of ourselves, let's not forget that of the 3 games in this series, TWO have gone to OT. What would the line be had Memphis won just one of those games. I thought the market overreacted in game 3 when we saw the 5.5 posted. Now I believe that the overreaction is even greater for game 4.
Memphis is an excellent ball club. Is their coach a questionable leader? Maybe. But, internally guys like Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince aren't going out 4-0. Not at home, not when you have the pride and competitiveness of those two and the team as a whole. Is the series over? Probably, but I'm not betting the series, I'm betting this single event at this single point in time.
Good Luck.
:shake:
YTD: 21-17 +7.36 units
Back to the WCF we go for an elimination game.
MEMPHIS -2.5 (3)
My line: Mem -3.5
My original number when these teams headed back to Memphis for this series was in the range of 4 to 4.5. I've shaded my line down a .5 due to the fact that the Spurs are clearly the better team. However, before we get ahead of ourselves, let's not forget that of the 3 games in this series, TWO have gone to OT. What would the line be had Memphis won just one of those games. I thought the market overreacted in game 3 when we saw the 5.5 posted. Now I believe that the overreaction is even greater for game 4.
Memphis is an excellent ball club. Is their coach a questionable leader? Maybe. But, internally guys like Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince aren't going out 4-0. Not at home, not when you have the pride and competitiveness of those two and the team as a whole. Is the series over? Probably, but I'm not betting the series, I'm betting this single event at this single point in time.
Good Luck.
:shake:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
:goal:
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
5/30
YTD: 22-19 +5.37 units
PACERS +7.5 (.75) and PACERS +315 (.20)
MY line: Miami -5.5
Seems like everyone is waiting for Miami to just blow this Pacers team. Well, the way I see it, the Pacers are full of confidence right now, and Miami does not have an answer for Hibbert. I would expect Miami to win the game. but I see no reason why it shouldn't be a battle to the end. The Pacers smell blood....can they close?
Good Luck.
:shake:
YTD: 22-19 +5.37 units
PACERS +7.5 (.75) and PACERS +315 (.20)
MY line: Miami -5.5
Seems like everyone is waiting for Miami to just blow this Pacers team. Well, the way I see it, the Pacers are full of confidence right now, and Miami does not have an answer for Hibbert. I would expect Miami to win the game. but I see no reason why it shouldn't be a battle to the end. The Pacers smell blood....can they close?
Good Luck.
:shake:
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Game 7
YTD: 23-20 +5.14 units
Back and forth they go. It's become apparent, and has been since game 2 that Indiana is the better team. Something is wrong with Wade, and Bosh has show his true colors. I will likely back Indiana in game 7, but for now:
UNDER 181 (.75)
Good luck. Making numbers for the Spurs/Pacers or Spurs/Hear series.
:thinking:
YTD: 23-20 +5.14 units
Back and forth they go. It's become apparent, and has been since game 2 that Indiana is the better team. Something is wrong with Wade, and Bosh has show his true colors. I will likely back Indiana in game 7, but for now:
UNDER 181 (.75)
Good luck. Making numbers for the Spurs/Pacers or Spurs/Hear series.
:thinking:
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Thanks Fellas.
Emkee - how can you say that Indiana isn't the better team? Miami is a one man show right now. Shut down Haslem and you really got nothing. Wade is hurt and Bosh want's NO part of this series. As for game 3 and 5, I call that growing pains. However, keep in mind, Indy wins game 1 and this series is over.
Emkee - how can you say that Indiana isn't the better team? Miami is a one man show right now. Shut down Haslem and you really got nothing. Wade is hurt and Bosh want's NO part of this series. As for game 3 and 5, I call that growing pains. However, keep in mind, Indy wins game 1 and this series is over.
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