NBA Playoffs Round 2

smh212

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
Round 1: 9-6 +1.57

5/3: WIZARDS +5 (1) and WIZARDS +180 (.5)
My line: ATL -3

The Hawks failed to impress in RD 1, while the Wizards seemed to have FINALLY located their identity. The long layoff for Wash is a concern, but not nearly as much as the short turnaround time for ATL. The Hawks really got screwed with having to play a 1 pm game on Sunday. If anything they should have at least been afforded the later game. However, it's things like this that open up a betting opportunity. For me, I get the team I deem to be playing better ball, with a scheduling bonus.

Considering an under bet as well, but still looking into it.

Good Luck.
:shake:
 
Personally I think the Wizards are in for a rude awakening from a team that actually knows how to play basketball. Unlike the lowly raptors. And id much rather back a team in the groove rather than one that hasn't played in a week and will most likely be hungover from being out last night watching the mayweather fight.
 
ATL hasn't played good basketball on a consistent basis since the all-star break. I agree, the layoff facing Washington is tough, but so is the short turn for ATL. Wash presents a much tougher match up than weak ass Brooklyn.

I think game 1 will present some interesting in game, and halftime prospects.
 
I think the wizard bigs pose a big challenge for Atlanta... but i think it'll be more of a problem on the road for atlanta

bol
 
5/8

Playoffs: 10-6 +2.47

The NBA playoffs always present solid betting opportunities, but for me they require patience. Venue changes are one of my favorite spots, and this weekend, we have all the games changing sites.

Clips/Hou UNDER 216.5 (1.25)

Games 1 and 2 of this series, provided some flat out anomalies. Game 1 saw the Clippers, w/ no Chris Paul, beat the spread by 23.5 pts. The Clips shot 48% from the field, and even more impressive, had 31 assists on 41 made baskets, needless to say, their offensive eff was off the charts. Add it up and it let to the Clippers scoring 71 pts in the second half.

Houston figured to show some heart in game 2, and they were able to hold LA to only 44 pts in the second half, which is quite a feat for them considering they allowed 41 pts in the 2nd qtr alone. I'm struggling to recall a team w/ a lower collective basketball IQ then this group, and it's pretty hard to do. Game 2 saw Houston ATTEMPT 64 FTS's. The Rockets made more FT's than the Clips attempted (42-32). That ain't happening tonight. Bottom line for me, is Paul or no Paul (from the line movement I'm guessing he plays), I like the Clippers to control the pace. I have it 105-100 Clips. I missed the opening number, and now if a "7" pops, I wil likely play Houston out of shear value.

GL.:shake:
 
5/8 adding:
ROCKETS +167 1st half

First and firemost, at 6.5, there is value in HOU. However, I like the first half better. The Clippers have really hit a nice groove without Paul, and I believe his return tonight may cause some disruption in the teams flow. Given the skill set of Paul, I feel that the first half offers better value in the backing of the theory.
 
5/10

Playoffs: 11-8 +1.35

After a bad misread on Friday nights action, a proper read and result followed on Saturday.

A quick look back at the Clips/Houston series, and reviewing my notes as they pertain to what I thought would transpire and what actually did transpire, has me back at the step in my handicapping process, specifically, my assessment that Houston as a group has the lowest basketball I.Q. of any team in recent memory. Thus, when matched against a club that can match their physical talent to the degree that the Clippers can, the fact that Houston rides to the game on the short bus, is much more obvious, opposed to when they are facing a team like Portland, who cannot match their physical presence. When betting individual games in a series, I look for true outlying performances from the prior contest, which may lead to line shading, in addition to anticipating adjustments by each individual team. I think it's fair to assume that coach McHale has drawn up some adjustments for the Rockets on defense, however, their has been no translation from the chalkboard to the hardwood. Drawing on this conclusion, the only thing stopping the Clippers from scoring 120 pts per game is themselves. IF the Rockets are going to actually compete in basketball game this series, something they have done in 2 of the 12 qtrs of this series, a winning result would correlate with the game going over.

On to today:

Cavs/Bulls UNDER 98.5 1st half (1.25)

I took the under in game 2 of this series, and sat out game 3. I believe these teams are due for a game that finishes in the mid 180's, however, the amount of pts being scored in the closing minutes of these games has me on the 1st half.

No Gasol today, means more Gibson, whose strength is on defense and clearing the boards. Two things that result in less scoring opportunities for Cleveland, while providing one less scoring option for Chicago.

Good Luck.

:shake:
 
5/11

Playoffs: 12-8 +2.70 units

Divol, Emkee, and Paulie.........:shake: Appreciate the comments, especially from a solid group of grinders like yourselves.

Mem/GS UNDER 196 (1.25)

Since Iron Mike has returned to the series, Memphis has dictated tempo. Given the veteran nature of this bunch, the strong player leadership, I don't see them getting away from their identity. While pace does in fact make the race, good teams can adjust when the pace is not to their liking. GS is a team that has the ability to win basketball games, even when the pace is not to their liking. I think we saw a bit of this in game 3. Forced to run more half court offense, the Warriors began to do that, which we saw in the second half of game 3. Game 3 saw the Warriors win the 3rd and 4th quarters by a combined 50-44. My eyeball test showed me a team that abandoned the style of play in the 2nd quarter, which they lost 32-19. The second half saw Memphis reduce their turnovers to 8 from 9 in the first half, which is significant when you consider they turned it over 4 times in the first qtr and 4 times in the second qtr! Meanwhile, Memphis turned the ball over ONCE in the 1st qtr and 5 times in the half. Down 55-39 at half, we saw the adjustments in the second half (Kevin McHale should take note). The Warriors adopted their game, and started taking what was available. A big key for GS was Draymond Green. Green has been frustrated this series, and overall he shot 1-8, while forcing up 6 three's. However, in the 4th he came up w/ 3 steals while playing the entire qtr. A good sign for GS fans.

For me this adds up to what should be an ultra competitive affair. GS was the #1 defense in the NBA this season. I believe they can adjust to a pace that is controlled by Memphis, and I don't see that changing. I do think we see GS play smarter basketball. They are good enough to win a game in the mid 90's.

Lastly, the situation calls for an UNDER bet:

I ran my database with some restrictions as follows:
-Time Frame: L10 years and restricted to playoff games
-Team in question has covered and won SU as dog

Results of next game:
Team at home: PK - 3.5 pt dog: 4-3 ATS and 4-3 SU (5-2 UNDER)
: 4 -7.5 pt dog: 4-6-1 ATS and 6-5 SU (8-3 UNDER)

As HOME DOGS (Memphis): 1-4-1 ATS, 0-6 SU , (6-0 UNDER)

:shake:
 
Playoffs: 13-8 +3.95 units
Thanks Twink and BAR

BULLS +5 (1.25)
My line: Cle -3

Haven't seen anything in this series that would warrant either side being a two possession favorite. I expect another down to the wire game.

Good Luck.
 
5/13

Playoffs: 13-8-1 +3.95 units

Bar and Hugh.....:shake:

WIZARDS +7.5 (1.50) and WIZ +290 (.25)
My line: Atl -5

Hawks put together their best game of the series in game 4, yet the consistency is still not there. I don't believe the Wizards are intimidated one bit. At this point, the Wall injury is no longer a factor in my handicapping. What is a factor is the Carroll injury. He has proven to be the engine on this team, and w/ Nene finally breaking out of his slump, the Hawks are going to need Carroll.

Good Luck.

:shake:
 
Will update record.

I have the BULLS -130 tonight as the last leg of a 3 team parlay that will pay 5.95 units. Will grade the BULLS as risking 1.25 units.
GOOD LUCK
 
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