NBA Playoffs 2017

[hugh613]

NBAX: 24-16. +6.60
NBA 2016/17: 155-165-1, -36.90

Saturday:

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4/15/2017 8:00 PM Reduced Basketball 505 Memphis Grizzlies/San Antonio Spurs* Under 190 -105

*Well, this might be a one and done kind of thing as my interest in posting has pretty much flatlined over the past few months (the outside world holds more sway sometimes), but we'll se how it goes...

Anyways, yet another miserable regular season in the books (managed to reduce the actual deficit to the mid teens, but that's neither here nor there). Not sure exactly where or when I lost my way, but my inexplicable love affair with the under during a boom time for scoring obviously hasn't helped. So what better way to kick off the post season than... with yet another under.

From a statistical standpoint, this one seems fairly 'obvious': No's 3 (Memphis 44.3%) and 4 (San Antonio 44.3%) in Defensive FG%, No's 1 (San Antonio 103.6) and No.8 (Memphis 107.2) in Defensive Efficiency, and No's 27 (San Antonio 94.2) and 28 (Memphis 92.2) in Pace. Throw in the Spurs being Top 5 this season at home in OPPG, DEFF, and Pace, and odds are this one's not exactly a barn burner (of course, having said that, every time I took the Spurs at home this season, they'd give up 110+ to the likes of the Mavs and Jazz, so y'know...)

In terms of trends, the Under went 3-1 this season H2H (2-0 at AT&T), 3-1 during the Spurs first round series sweep last April, and 10-4 the last 14 H2H. Of course, the absence of Tony Allen kind of puts a damper on things but, then again, seems like the Grizzlies have been in full on playoff mode for the past little while now (lowest pace in the league the last 5 regular season games at 87.9, including a thrilling 95-89 loss in OT to these very same Spurs), so hopefully we get a full dose of the good ol' bump and grind type basketball we've become accustomed to with Memphis.

 

[B.A.R.]

This will slow down at some point...GL bud.

 

[emkee]

GL Hugh.

 

[Tito]

gl hugh...:shake2:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 0-1, -1.05

Sunday:

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4/16/2017 3:30 PM NBA Basketball 512 Golden State Warriors* Over 117 -110 vs Portland Trail Blazers

*Don't think you can really call that one last night a moose as the Spurs lacksadaisical effort on defense to start the game made it an uphill battle from the get go, but whatever... There's always game two.

As for this afternoon, in the four regular season matchups, the Blazers gave up an average of 125.0 PPG, allowing the Warriors to score 117+ in 3 of the 4, including both games at Oracle. If you're thinking "Well, that's the regular season, the playoffs are different...", keep in mind the Blazers allowed an average of 118.6 PPG to the Warriors during last year's second round matchup, including 117+ in 3 of the 5 games, and 2 of the 3 at Oracle. Now, mind you, last season's Dubs offense was a bit more of a buzz saw than this season's (at least to the untrained eye - ie. me), and KD's still working his way back into the rotation, but the one thing that hasn't changed is just how brutal this Blazers defense can be at times (ok, most of the time): bottom third in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, three point shooting and free throw attempts allowed.

Looking for the Warriors to make this a statement game to start the series.

Thanks BAR, emkee, and Tito.

 

[Hulu]

Seriously leaning this way myself. With the game total dropping a point, should be able to find a nice number on this.

Best of luck Hugh.

And go Sens

 

[B.A.R.]

Looking good there.

BOL today.

You capped yesterday correctly, it happens.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Hulu. I'm guessing the total has more to do with the Blazers not being at 100% as opposed to anything to do with the Warriors (spread seems to be holding steady). Still, the way my season's gone, Warriors probably put up an 18 spot in the 1st quarter...

As for the Sens, not saying we have a legit shot, but this idiotic playoff structure at least leaves the door open for a potential upset in the 2nd round.

Good luck with your bets bud. And thanks to you as well BAR.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 1-1, -0.05

Adding:

4/16/2017 9:00 PM NBA Basketball 515 Oklahoma City Thunder/Houston Rockets* Over 115½ -110 for 1st Half

*The FT O/U went 2-2 this season between the Thunder and Rockets but the 1H O/U went 3-1, with both 1H's in Houston sailing over the total (123 and 138). Not that I don't think the FT Over stands a decent shot but a) all the numbers point to a higher scoring 1H than 2H (OKC 1H/2H totals -4.7, HOU 1H/2H totals -3.7, and all 4 H2H matchups this season saw significant drop-offs in scoring in the 2H) and b) let's face it, I'll be fast asleep by the time the 2H comes to a close (this is what happens when you get old), so we'll go with the 1H.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 1-2, -1.15

Monday:

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4/17/2017 9:30 PM NBA Basketball 519 Memphis Grizzlies/San Antonio Spurs* Under 189½ -116

*Well, so far, no good. Still don't understand why Victor Oladipo kept launching shot after shot in the 1H, but it is what it is. As for tonight, I went through the relevant stats in the first post, so no point in re-hashing them here. Game pretty much played out the way I think most of us expected, but having Memphis (ie. Marc Gasol) start out 7/8 (or whatever it was) from the floor and watching the Spurs shoot 52% from three... not much you can do about that. This one should be a better indicator of how well the Grizzlies defense plans on holding up in the absence of Tony Allen (note to David Fizdale: probably not a good idea to have Vince Carter guarding Kawhi Leonard).

The Grizz are talking defense this, defense that, and one of the most effective weapons is to slow the pace down even further, so we'll see what happens...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

4/17/2017 9:30 PM NBA Basketball 519 Memphis Grizzlies/San Antonio Spurs* Under 97½ -117 for 1st Half

*Meh, not a whole lot to choose from tomorrow night (although when has that ever stopped me before...), so essentially making this a 2 unit play on the full game total. Anyways, hard to imagine Memphis putting up points the way they did to start he game the other night again, so considering all the other x-factors (how few shots were taken, how few threes were taken, how few turnovers were committed), difficult to see this one approaching the heights of Game 1's 1H. Also should help that all four umps (as tuck321 likes to say) were below average (from the looks of it) in terms of fouls called per game this season, so hopefully this one turns into one of those bump and grind type matches and not some 55-50 bullshit.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 3-2, +0.85

Tuesday:

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4/18/2017 7:00 PM NBA Basketball 525 Milwaukee Bucks/Toronto Raptors* Under 98½ -118 for 1st Half

*Not much time to indulge in my usual non-sensical blabber, but think the under holds merit in this one for a few reasons.

a) Not saying it's a tell, but just look at the total in this one compared to the other two games tonight. In the four regular season matchups between the Bulls and Celtics, the totals averaged 209.6 (game 1 was 207.5, tonight it's 206). In the four regular season matchups between the Jazz and Clippers, the totals averaged 199.4 (game 1 was 198, tonight it's 197.5). By contrast, the four regular season matchups between the Bucks and Raptors averaged 209.1. That dropped almost 12 points in game 1 to 197.5, and now a further 5.5 points to tonight's current 192. Like I said, not saying it's a tell, but clearly the linesmakers are already expecting a seismic shift in terms of game play as this series goes on.

b) While the 1H total holds a bit more appeal due to the higher number, just reading some of the quotes coming out of Toronto makes me think this series is about to get a lot more physical, especially in terms of how the Raptors gameplan the Greek Freak (I was going to try and write out the proper spelling of his name without the help of Google, but no can do. Maybe twinkie can help me out...) Also, Kyle Lowry's quotes have me believing this is going to be a sink or swim kind of total (“Put it this way: I guess I’m going to have to force shots,” was how Lowry put it Sunday afternoon. “My teammates want me to be more aggressive, so I’m going to have to force some more shots, simple as that.") This after he threw his teammates under the bus saying they needed to step up if he and DeRozan weren't getting it done (maybe don't keep taking so many shots when you're a combined 9-32 from the floor, and let your teammates shoot every once in a while then...) Fully expecting Lowry to start out the game trying to assert himself as the alpha male - just hoping the shots don't drop...

 

[B.A.R.]

looks good to me

gl tonight...

 

[UTSUX]

I like it.

 

[Metallica]

BOL Hugh :shake:

 

[Tito]

bol hugh!

 

[Hulu]

Interesting take on the bucks/raps total. I like your thinking even if I'm on the opposite side. Best of luck.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 3-3, -0.32

Adding:

4/18/2017 10:30 PM NBA Basketball 529 Utah Jazz* Under 95½ -117 vs Los Angeles Clippers

*That Raptors bet looked good for about the first six minutes, then I don't know what happened... Anyways, the likelihood of Joe Johnson going off again seems next to nil, so unless Jeff Withey brings his 'A' game tonight, not even sure the Jazz manage to break the 90 point barrier tonight...

Thanks BAR, UTSUX, Metallica, Tito and Hulu.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 4-3, +0.68

Wednesday:

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4/19/2017 8:00 PM NBA Basketball 704 Houston Rockets* Over 59 -110 vs Oklahoma City Thunder for 1st Half
4/19/2017 10:30 PM NBA Basketball 705 Portland Trail Blazers/Golden State Warriors* Over 107 -110 for 1st Half

*Well, game 1 I flip flopped on whether to take the Rockets 1H team total or just the 1H Over. As it turns out, I was losing either way as the Rockets lost by the hook and the over missed by 1 possession (safe to assume Westbrook's 3 attempt beats the buzzer if I'd had the under...) All this to say I'm on the team total this time around; after all, the Rockets hit 59 despite going a rather pathetic 3/16 from 3 in the 1H on mostly wide open looks, and despite a less than MVP type performance from James Harden. The 1H over itself perhaps not a terrible bet but, y'know, I just don't trust that OKC offense, especially if Westbrook has trouble getting it going again.

As for Portland/Golden State, was tempted just to go with the Warriors team total again, but they barely made it there on Sunday, and now Durant's likely out, so this seems like the safer option. Besides, seemed fairly obvious the duo of Lillard and McCollum are going to be able to keep pace with Curry and Thompson, so I'd look for another hot start from them.

 

[captjohn67]

:cheers3:

 

[Metallica]

BOL on the total tonight Hugh.

 

[KJ]

Hugh :beer4:

may OKC have a shitty, shitty first half

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 5-4, +0.58

Thursday:

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4/20/2017 9:30 PM Reduced Basketball 713 San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 184½ -105

*Not much point in writing up the same game a third time, but obviously looking for a much more concerted effort on defense from Memphis at home where they were 15-24-2 O/U, bottom 5 in pace, bottom 5 in offensive efficiency, and top 5 in defensive efficiency. Take that for data...

Thanks capt, Metallica and kj.

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[B.A.R.]

Data,,,

GL tonight, should be a sloppy one.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 5-5, -0.47

Friday:

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4/21/2017 7:00 PM Reduced Basketball 716 Chicago Bulls* -116 vs Boston Celtics

*I knew that Memphis total was dead in the water once it got hit with steam, but what can you do. Anyways, think I'll be on the Jazz under later on, maybe... We'll see how the Bulls do first.

Thanks Metallica and BAR.

 

[Metallica]

Like the Bulls tonight as well. BOL Hugh.

 

[Hulu]

Thinking the same thing tonight Hugh. BOL

 

[ProV1Colt]

A little Rage. Play on

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 5-6, -1.63

Adding:

4/21/2017 10:00 PM Reduced Basketball 719 Los Angeles Clippers/Utah Jazz* Under 197½ -105

*I only realized about 5 minutes ago that Rondo was out and that the line had swung pre game in favour of the Celtics. So much for trying to be sharp by getting my bet in early...

Thanks Metallica, Hulu and ProV.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 5-7, -2.68

Saturday:

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4/22/2017 3:00 PM Reduced Basketball 501 Toronto Raptors/Milwaukee Bucks* Under 194½ -105
4/22/2017 8:00 PM Reduced Basketball 505 San Antonio Spurs/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 187½ -105
4/22/2017 10:30 PM Reduced Basketball 507 Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers* Over 217 -105

*Negative units - now that's my comfort zone... Anyways, like I said the other night, not much point in writing up the same games over and over, so let's hope steam doesn't get me a third night in a row...

 

[Metallica]

Like the Over on GS/Blazers. BOL today Hugh.

 

[B.A.R.]

GL today bud.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 7-8, -1.73

Sunday:

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4/23/2017 1:00 PM Reduced Basketball 509 Cleveland Cavaliers/Indiana Pacers* Over 212½ -105
4/23/2017 3:30 PM NBA Basketball 511 Houston Rockets* Over 56½ -110 vs Oklahoma City Thunder for 1st Half
4/23/2017 6:30 PM Reduced Basketball 513 Boston Celtics* -140 vs Chicago Bulls

Thanks Metallica and BAR.

 

[Tito]

bol today hugh :cheers3:

 

[KJ]

GL today hugh, like that Rox over a bit

 

[Metallica]

BOL today Hugh.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

4/23/2017 9:00 PM Reduced Basketball 515 Los Angeles Clippers/Utah Jazz* Under 97½ -105 for 1st Half

*Frustrating day to say the least. As for Clippers/Jazz, the addition of Rudy Gobert and the subtraction of Blake Griffin should lead to a few less points in this one. Plus, with the spectre of possibly heading back to LA down 3-1, looking for the Jazz to actually play some defense for once (the DRtg's for both the Clippers and Jazz in this series are actually worse than Golden State/Portland, who've played to about 13+ more possessions per game, and about 17+ more points per game...)

Thanks Tito, KJ and Metallica.

 

[B.A.R.]

Tomorrow is a new day...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 8-11, -3.93

Monday:

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4/24/2017 7:00 PM NBA Basketball 517 Milwaukee Bucks/Toronto Raptors* Under 192½ -118

*Blah...

Thanks BAR.

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[Tito]

bol tonight hugh :shake2:

 

[Retburj13]

:cheers3:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 8-12, -5.11

Adding:

4/24/2017 10:30 PM Reduced Basketball 521 Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers* Over 221 -105

*Think it might be just about time to draw the curtain on this miserable season...

Thanks Metallica, Tito and Retburj.

 

[KJ]

Points please! :beer4:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 9-12, -4.11

Tuesday:

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4/25/2017 8:00 PM NBA Basketball 706 Houston Rockets* Over 59½ -110 vs Oklahoma City Thunder for 1st Half
4/25/2017 9:00 PM Reduced Basketball 703 Memphis Grizzlies/San Antonio Spurs* Under 95½ -107 for 1st Half
4/25/2017 10:30 PM NBA Basketball 707 Utah Jazz/Los Angeles Clippers* Under 94½ -118 for 1st Half

*Meh...

Thanks KJ.

 

[emkee]

All the best tonight, Hugh.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck slut.

 

[KJ]

gluck hugh, we can both win all of that

 

[hugh613]

Thank guys, and good luck kj (the two times I've wished you good luck in your thread, you've had your two worst nights, so...)