Satyr
Paster of Muppets
NBA 2006/2007(regular season): 90 W-1 V-70 L +98.01 units
NBA 2007 playoffs: 0 W-0 D- 0 L+/- 0 units
Ok, first of, a small comment, a word of advice or whatever. The playoffs are about to start, I've come across dozens and dozens of previews, posts, bets, etc...and that's all fine. But think twice before you bet. The NBA playoffs have been my most profitable time in betting for the past couple of years, but that doesn't mean we should force anything.
Don't rush it, don't let euphoria about a great event take over your judgment.
As always, I'm taking it slow, and seeing what will develop from there. That's my style in all sports, I never force the issue, never start hard, and this won't be any different. I'm a situational capper and I'll wait for some things to start unfolding, and hopefully jump on the right bandwagon.
Some would say this isn't a season start, but this is a whole different ballgame right here, than what we just saw in regular season. Big boys step up here, sub par teams go home. Let's get on to business.
EAST
Detroit (1) - Orlando (8)
Usually regular season h2h might or might not be the real indicator but one thing is certain: the Pistons didn't sweep the series by chance.
Orlando started the season on a high note, then barely clinched the playoffs, I have to say I'm not that impressed. Their main force is Howard obviously, but he has been and will be handled by the Stons.
They're a team of a couple of shooters (Hedo, Nelson) + Howard. They can't rely on Hill, he's a huge liability in postseason, very injury-prone, Ariza hasn't excelled to a force they had hoped him to become, and to be honest they lack a real PG in order to hang with the big boys.
Orlando don't have a top notch gameplan, their game can be a threat to some lowly rated teams but not Detroit.
Orlando can win one game here if you ask me, perhaps two, I doubt it Detroit will break their necks to sweep them, they just need to go through and save as much energy as they can.
Detroit in 5.
Series bet(s): None.
Game 1 bet(s): None (yet).
Cleveland (2) - Washington (7)
No Hibachi and Butler, no series. Come on, these Wizards would see their end even with their starting lineup available, let alone now, banged up and bruised, without their star players. Do we even bother to analyze such an encounter? Does it really matter how these teams matchup? The "only" thing Cavs need to do here is to come out strong. But it's pick your poison situation. The thing is, Cavs aren't THAT superior over anyone (1.03 to advance) but against depleted Washington I just can't see beyond a sweep here. If the Cavs care that is, if they don't then Wizards win one.
Cavs in 4
Series bet(s): yes, I'm going to stake my house and pawn everything I've got to buy a sandwich and a beer later on.
Game 1 bet(s): I think they come out strong. Cavs -11,5 (1.95 @ Pinnacle). I hate laying DD here, but I can't help myself as I can't see passed Cavs winning by 15-20. Am I afraid of a late cover? Of course, hence the stake, 3 units.
Toronto (3) - New Jersey (6)
A very, very tough series if you ask me. It'll be fun to see Vince Carter play at Air Canada center, Toronto are stacked by Europeans, these guys will hardly roll over against a "more experienced team", health is an issue for both sides, and naturally, if this one is such a toss up, then value is on the Nets, right?
Linesmakers know that Nets will get plenty of action here thanks to their experience, but I wouldn't be so sure they go through just yet. Mitchell knows how to beat these guys, and he has the weapons to do it.
I think Toronto wins game 1 comfortably but let's not jump to any conclusions just yet, I wouldn't lay points in game 1 in such situation.
Toronto in 7: I think this one goes to game 7 and Toronto wins in front of their fans, I expect a turbulent ride and a lot of momentum shifts.
Series bet(s): The value can only be on the Nets side at this point, but I won't bet at this point so let's just wait how they go off shall we.
Game 1 bet(s): None.
Chicago (4) - Miami (5)
This one I'm looking forward to. Chicago humiliated Miami at the season opening, then Miami couldn't get their revenge, Chicago ended up taking the season series 3-1.
No one is that naive to think it will only reflect to postseason. These guys have all the experience in the world (Mourning, Payton, O'Neal, Eddie Jones), after all they are the ring bearers.
Miami beat them last year, and the books have Chicago listed as favorites here, mostly due to HCA and several questionmarks in the Heat squad regarding injuries.
I love these Bulls, I love how Hinrich fits into the team, how Deng and Gordon excelled, etc...
Plus I've been saying all year how these Bulls are good, but favs at this spot?
Offensively, they're a huge liability, by lacking a true inside presence on the offensive end, relying on jump shots way too much, they should have huge problems once their FG% starts going down the drain, Miami are experienced, they have a bunch of men in the inside (Zo, Shaq, Haslem) who will match and outduel Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace, who are solid defenders and rebounders, but they can't pour in 20 and their team can't rely on them to provide an offensive spark, not just scoring wise.
Miami surely won't let them engage into a series of easy baskets, uncontested layups or drives, they have the weapons to prevent that.
If Bulls manage to keep their FG% high, they have a shot, but apart from that, with a couple of questionmarks still up (injuries), Heat should take this one.
Miami in 6
Series bet(s): Miami (2.21 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Game 1 bet(s): Miami +4 (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 4 units. I can actually see a narrow win for either side, hence taking the points. Heat are now, in the eyes of many, this banged up side that got thumped by Chicago in regular season, but I think once real action starts we'll see a different picture. No interest in taking the total here.
WEST
Dallas (1) - Golden State (8)
The Warriors will be welcomed in Oakland; I'm sure their loyal fans will known how to thank them for this wonderful end of regular season, they can circle "mission accomplished" next to the "season goals" column. And they truly deserved it, played excellent ball at times, showed perseverance, mental strength at times, and they showed they have a lot of guys who can step up and score.
After all, they beat Dallas 3-0 in regular season. Good ol' Nellie's small ball . Do we really think the Mavs care they were swept in season series? Sure it looks bad but this is the real deal right here. And the real deal says, GSW have no inside presence whatsoever. Andris Biedrins has stepped up huge lately, but Dallas can play interior D and shut them out completely once their hands start shaking on the big scene.
They did accomplish a big thing here, but this is still a team that lives and dies by rock distribution and having 3,4 guys score 20+. Without that, they can't hang with the Mavs I'm afraid.
I'm reading some people are actually disappointed that Mavs didn't go for 70 season wins, some say they're not in their best form, but that's just the point, they're timing their form in order to peak later on.
The Warriors have peaked already, and I think it's all downhill from here.
Dallas in 4
Series bet(s): none, obviously.
Game 1 bet(s): none (yet).
Phoenix (2) - LA Lakers (7)
Phoenix are too much of a machine to be threatened here, even by Phil Jackson himself. The Zen Master just doesn't have all the ingredients for playoff success I'm afraid. Not this season at least. The Lakers started off great, at one point they were even 16 or 17 games above .500 if I'm not mistaking, but they fell drastically somewhere around the All Star break and never bounced back.
They can rebound here, and to be honest I don't feel like laying huge chalk to back the Suns here, but how can one back the Lakers at this point, when they were playing sub par, ugly basketball for months now, feeding the ball to Kobe.
Phoenix, on the other hand, are more experienced than in recent seasons, they're not banged up and they're ready to prove Pat Riley's notorious saying wrong. Are they up for it, we're about to see.
The Lakers, on the other hand, were hit by injuries, so that could be some sort of an excuse for a poor post All Star period, but even when the guys started getting back they still lacked composure and gameplan. Be sure the latter won't be a problem in the playoffs, Jackson is too experienced and he will use any possible edge to his advantage.
He most certainly won't run with the Suns, unless Kobe can drop a hundred every night they would lose 9 out of 10 such matches.
But by limiting the score, keeping it lower, mid 90s perhaps, that's the key.
I still don't believe the Lakers can do it, I just don't think the Suns will have it easy here.
Phoenix in 6
Series bet(s): Wow, Lakers pay out 14 to 1 right now. Nah, I won't back them, but it is a tad much. I wouldn't have expected more than 9.00.
Game 1 bet(s): under 213 (1.92 @ Pinnacle) 3 units: that's right, I'm on the bandwagon as well. I'm usually not much of a tailer, but I have to go with the flow this time. These are the playoffs, and even though the line reflects a possibly lower total than what these two would combine in regular season, I think it goes even further, and both (or one) fail to reach the century mark.
San Antonio (3) - Denver (6)
The Nuggets are very dangerous, not only do they have an experienced coach in King Karl, not one but two star players (Melo & AI obviously), considerable inside presences in Nene-Camby duo, but they also have a few sharp shooters to rely on in crunch time, as Steve Blake and Linas Kleiza have both excelled lately.
Matchup wise, Denver has a shot here. Experience wise, they're chanceless. They're not that young, but they started playing real basketball a month or two ago: are we supposed to go on a lim and trust them against a super experienced team in San Antonio? The Spurs will have to break some serious sweat, that's something I would bet my house on, but I don't think they lose this one.
Spurs in 6
Series bet(s): none
Game 1 bet(s): none.
Houston (4) - Utah (5)
Ok, remember what I said about the Lakers? Same (or similar) can be applied to Utah Jazz, Sloan's boys got lost somewhere along the way and started choking mightily. The difference is: the Jazzers have the potential, they have the depth, they can play D, and they're playing against opposition which is, in my eyes, severely overrated. I might be wrong, but can someone please tell me what these Rockets did to warrant being this favored a series I would call a very tight one?
Luther Head is healthy and T-Mac is a questionmark. Matchup wise this one could go either way, Utah still have more than enough men to rely on, we're talking both ends of the floor here.
Houston are a team of underachievers and until they can prove they are stepping up huge, in my book they shouldn't be favored by this much against anyone, even if Utah are missing AK 47 here. The point is, Kirilenko's absence is taken as a HUGE blow for the Jazz, while I actually see them reassembling again, like they did the first time he was injured this season, when Paul Millsap showed why he's a real deal. Ok, with AK missing Utah will have less bodies to throw at Yao, but let's be honest here and say that apart from that these two teams are pretty evenly matched.
Utah choked a lot in last weeks of regular season, there's no denying that, losing to the likes of Seattle or Sacramento, but this is a different ballgame, and Sloan is a cunning fox. I don't think they will melt down here, expect them to step up actually and show why Houston Rockets are perennial underachievers. Unless they can reactivate Hakeem & Clyde that is.
Utah in 6
Series bet(s): Jazz (3.27 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Game 1 bet(s): Jazz +6 (1.93 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Some futures:
Eastern Conference:
Cavs to win EC: (4.78 @ Pinnacle) (2 units)
Their path is clearly the easiest looking one, and LeBron is the most popular player in the NBA, with all due respect to Kobe, his Lakers aren't contenders anyways.
Expect Cleveland to have a wind in their back by the association, and despite the fact I'm not the biggest fan of their talent (only Pavlovic and Varejao are worth mentioning to be honest, young buck Daniel Gibson has stepped up as well, and Big Z and Gooden have the experience, hence the play), their opposition, realistically speaking, are the Pistons. Perhaps Miami, but I think they won't do it this year.
Western Conference
Spurs to win WC (4.1 @ Pinnacle) 2 units: Dallas are the biggest favs out there, followed by Phoenix, but the Spurs aren't to be underestimated. They have a well known backbone and tons of playoff experience.
The Nuggets, provided they can leap over SA, are available at juicy 39.0. A very long shot I agree, but taking it for some pocket change should provide a solid payout as well.
Good luck guys.:drinking: :cheers:
illow:
NBA 2007 playoffs: 0 W-0 D- 0 L+/- 0 units
Ok, first of, a small comment, a word of advice or whatever. The playoffs are about to start, I've come across dozens and dozens of previews, posts, bets, etc...and that's all fine. But think twice before you bet. The NBA playoffs have been my most profitable time in betting for the past couple of years, but that doesn't mean we should force anything.
Don't rush it, don't let euphoria about a great event take over your judgment.
As always, I'm taking it slow, and seeing what will develop from there. That's my style in all sports, I never force the issue, never start hard, and this won't be any different. I'm a situational capper and I'll wait for some things to start unfolding, and hopefully jump on the right bandwagon.
Some would say this isn't a season start, but this is a whole different ballgame right here, than what we just saw in regular season. Big boys step up here, sub par teams go home. Let's get on to business.
EAST
Detroit (1) - Orlando (8)
Usually regular season h2h might or might not be the real indicator but one thing is certain: the Pistons didn't sweep the series by chance.
Orlando started the season on a high note, then barely clinched the playoffs, I have to say I'm not that impressed. Their main force is Howard obviously, but he has been and will be handled by the Stons.
They're a team of a couple of shooters (Hedo, Nelson) + Howard. They can't rely on Hill, he's a huge liability in postseason, very injury-prone, Ariza hasn't excelled to a force they had hoped him to become, and to be honest they lack a real PG in order to hang with the big boys.
Orlando don't have a top notch gameplan, their game can be a threat to some lowly rated teams but not Detroit.
Orlando can win one game here if you ask me, perhaps two, I doubt it Detroit will break their necks to sweep them, they just need to go through and save as much energy as they can.
Detroit in 5.
Series bet(s): None.
Game 1 bet(s): None (yet).
Cleveland (2) - Washington (7)
No Hibachi and Butler, no series. Come on, these Wizards would see their end even with their starting lineup available, let alone now, banged up and bruised, without their star players. Do we even bother to analyze such an encounter? Does it really matter how these teams matchup? The "only" thing Cavs need to do here is to come out strong. But it's pick your poison situation. The thing is, Cavs aren't THAT superior over anyone (1.03 to advance) but against depleted Washington I just can't see beyond a sweep here. If the Cavs care that is, if they don't then Wizards win one.
Cavs in 4
Series bet(s): yes, I'm going to stake my house and pawn everything I've got to buy a sandwich and a beer later on.
Game 1 bet(s): I think they come out strong. Cavs -11,5 (1.95 @ Pinnacle). I hate laying DD here, but I can't help myself as I can't see passed Cavs winning by 15-20. Am I afraid of a late cover? Of course, hence the stake, 3 units.
Toronto (3) - New Jersey (6)
A very, very tough series if you ask me. It'll be fun to see Vince Carter play at Air Canada center, Toronto are stacked by Europeans, these guys will hardly roll over against a "more experienced team", health is an issue for both sides, and naturally, if this one is such a toss up, then value is on the Nets, right?
Linesmakers know that Nets will get plenty of action here thanks to their experience, but I wouldn't be so sure they go through just yet. Mitchell knows how to beat these guys, and he has the weapons to do it.
I think Toronto wins game 1 comfortably but let's not jump to any conclusions just yet, I wouldn't lay points in game 1 in such situation.
Toronto in 7: I think this one goes to game 7 and Toronto wins in front of their fans, I expect a turbulent ride and a lot of momentum shifts.
Series bet(s): The value can only be on the Nets side at this point, but I won't bet at this point so let's just wait how they go off shall we.
Game 1 bet(s): None.
Chicago (4) - Miami (5)
This one I'm looking forward to. Chicago humiliated Miami at the season opening, then Miami couldn't get their revenge, Chicago ended up taking the season series 3-1.
No one is that naive to think it will only reflect to postseason. These guys have all the experience in the world (Mourning, Payton, O'Neal, Eddie Jones), after all they are the ring bearers.
Miami beat them last year, and the books have Chicago listed as favorites here, mostly due to HCA and several questionmarks in the Heat squad regarding injuries.
I love these Bulls, I love how Hinrich fits into the team, how Deng and Gordon excelled, etc...
Plus I've been saying all year how these Bulls are good, but favs at this spot?
Offensively, they're a huge liability, by lacking a true inside presence on the offensive end, relying on jump shots way too much, they should have huge problems once their FG% starts going down the drain, Miami are experienced, they have a bunch of men in the inside (Zo, Shaq, Haslem) who will match and outduel Tyrus Thomas and Ben Wallace, who are solid defenders and rebounders, but they can't pour in 20 and their team can't rely on them to provide an offensive spark, not just scoring wise.
Miami surely won't let them engage into a series of easy baskets, uncontested layups or drives, they have the weapons to prevent that.
If Bulls manage to keep their FG% high, they have a shot, but apart from that, with a couple of questionmarks still up (injuries), Heat should take this one.
Miami in 6
Series bet(s): Miami (2.21 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Game 1 bet(s): Miami +4 (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 4 units. I can actually see a narrow win for either side, hence taking the points. Heat are now, in the eyes of many, this banged up side that got thumped by Chicago in regular season, but I think once real action starts we'll see a different picture. No interest in taking the total here.
WEST
Dallas (1) - Golden State (8)
The Warriors will be welcomed in Oakland; I'm sure their loyal fans will known how to thank them for this wonderful end of regular season, they can circle "mission accomplished" next to the "season goals" column. And they truly deserved it, played excellent ball at times, showed perseverance, mental strength at times, and they showed they have a lot of guys who can step up and score.
After all, they beat Dallas 3-0 in regular season. Good ol' Nellie's small ball . Do we really think the Mavs care they were swept in season series? Sure it looks bad but this is the real deal right here. And the real deal says, GSW have no inside presence whatsoever. Andris Biedrins has stepped up huge lately, but Dallas can play interior D and shut them out completely once their hands start shaking on the big scene.
They did accomplish a big thing here, but this is still a team that lives and dies by rock distribution and having 3,4 guys score 20+. Without that, they can't hang with the Mavs I'm afraid.
I'm reading some people are actually disappointed that Mavs didn't go for 70 season wins, some say they're not in their best form, but that's just the point, they're timing their form in order to peak later on.
The Warriors have peaked already, and I think it's all downhill from here.
Dallas in 4
Series bet(s): none, obviously.
Game 1 bet(s): none (yet).
Phoenix (2) - LA Lakers (7)
Phoenix are too much of a machine to be threatened here, even by Phil Jackson himself. The Zen Master just doesn't have all the ingredients for playoff success I'm afraid. Not this season at least. The Lakers started off great, at one point they were even 16 or 17 games above .500 if I'm not mistaking, but they fell drastically somewhere around the All Star break and never bounced back.
They can rebound here, and to be honest I don't feel like laying huge chalk to back the Suns here, but how can one back the Lakers at this point, when they were playing sub par, ugly basketball for months now, feeding the ball to Kobe.
Phoenix, on the other hand, are more experienced than in recent seasons, they're not banged up and they're ready to prove Pat Riley's notorious saying wrong. Are they up for it, we're about to see.
The Lakers, on the other hand, were hit by injuries, so that could be some sort of an excuse for a poor post All Star period, but even when the guys started getting back they still lacked composure and gameplan. Be sure the latter won't be a problem in the playoffs, Jackson is too experienced and he will use any possible edge to his advantage.
He most certainly won't run with the Suns, unless Kobe can drop a hundred every night they would lose 9 out of 10 such matches.
But by limiting the score, keeping it lower, mid 90s perhaps, that's the key.
I still don't believe the Lakers can do it, I just don't think the Suns will have it easy here.
Phoenix in 6
Series bet(s): Wow, Lakers pay out 14 to 1 right now. Nah, I won't back them, but it is a tad much. I wouldn't have expected more than 9.00.
Game 1 bet(s): under 213 (1.92 @ Pinnacle) 3 units: that's right, I'm on the bandwagon as well. I'm usually not much of a tailer, but I have to go with the flow this time. These are the playoffs, and even though the line reflects a possibly lower total than what these two would combine in regular season, I think it goes even further, and both (or one) fail to reach the century mark.
San Antonio (3) - Denver (6)
The Nuggets are very dangerous, not only do they have an experienced coach in King Karl, not one but two star players (Melo & AI obviously), considerable inside presences in Nene-Camby duo, but they also have a few sharp shooters to rely on in crunch time, as Steve Blake and Linas Kleiza have both excelled lately.
Matchup wise, Denver has a shot here. Experience wise, they're chanceless. They're not that young, but they started playing real basketball a month or two ago: are we supposed to go on a lim and trust them against a super experienced team in San Antonio? The Spurs will have to break some serious sweat, that's something I would bet my house on, but I don't think they lose this one.
Spurs in 6
Series bet(s): none
Game 1 bet(s): none.
Houston (4) - Utah (5)
Ok, remember what I said about the Lakers? Same (or similar) can be applied to Utah Jazz, Sloan's boys got lost somewhere along the way and started choking mightily. The difference is: the Jazzers have the potential, they have the depth, they can play D, and they're playing against opposition which is, in my eyes, severely overrated. I might be wrong, but can someone please tell me what these Rockets did to warrant being this favored a series I would call a very tight one?
Luther Head is healthy and T-Mac is a questionmark. Matchup wise this one could go either way, Utah still have more than enough men to rely on, we're talking both ends of the floor here.
Houston are a team of underachievers and until they can prove they are stepping up huge, in my book they shouldn't be favored by this much against anyone, even if Utah are missing AK 47 here. The point is, Kirilenko's absence is taken as a HUGE blow for the Jazz, while I actually see them reassembling again, like they did the first time he was injured this season, when Paul Millsap showed why he's a real deal. Ok, with AK missing Utah will have less bodies to throw at Yao, but let's be honest here and say that apart from that these two teams are pretty evenly matched.
Utah choked a lot in last weeks of regular season, there's no denying that, losing to the likes of Seattle or Sacramento, but this is a different ballgame, and Sloan is a cunning fox. I don't think they will melt down here, expect them to step up actually and show why Houston Rockets are perennial underachievers. Unless they can reactivate Hakeem & Clyde that is.
Utah in 6
Series bet(s): Jazz (3.27 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Game 1 bet(s): Jazz +6 (1.93 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
Some futures:
Eastern Conference:
Cavs to win EC: (4.78 @ Pinnacle) (2 units)
Their path is clearly the easiest looking one, and LeBron is the most popular player in the NBA, with all due respect to Kobe, his Lakers aren't contenders anyways.
Expect Cleveland to have a wind in their back by the association, and despite the fact I'm not the biggest fan of their talent (only Pavlovic and Varejao are worth mentioning to be honest, young buck Daniel Gibson has stepped up as well, and Big Z and Gooden have the experience, hence the play), their opposition, realistically speaking, are the Pistons. Perhaps Miami, but I think they won't do it this year.
Western Conference
Spurs to win WC (4.1 @ Pinnacle) 2 units: Dallas are the biggest favs out there, followed by Phoenix, but the Spurs aren't to be underestimated. They have a well known backbone and tons of playoff experience.
The Nuggets, provided they can leap over SA, are available at juicy 39.0. A very long shot I agree, but taking it for some pocket change should provide a solid payout as well.
Good luck guys.:drinking: :cheers:
illow:
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