NBA Playoff Plays (First Round)...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Reg. Season:

44-38-1 (+10.07)

Let's go...

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

The play...

Nuggets -7.5 (2.5 units)

Denver a proven beast at home. Warriors are young with very little post-season experience on the roster, franchise hasn't been to the 'dance' since 06/07. Think they may be a little overwhelmed by the occasion, not too mention they have a weak record against 'winning' teams. Unconcerned about the Nuggets' injuries, if anything I believe it will make them more focused on blowing the soft Warriors outta the building.

Feeling 'seedy' after a night out with a few of the Boston homies staying here in Diego so the 'write-up' is minus a few strong trends and the like but aside from the overall 'squareness', I really like this play.

:shake:
 
Got it wrong yesterday. Strange game.

adding...

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (Game One)

The play...

Hawks +6.5 (3 units)

Short on time, will elaborate later...

:shake:
 
Rough start so far. Hawks being the Hawks and showing us once again why they are what they are - an extremely poorly coached, fundamentally weak team. In saying that, they probably win Game 2 just to mess with folks.

Got a big play brewing in South Beach and hopefully get my playoffs back on track...
 
The free throw shooting was huge in the hawks game. Just a mentally weak inept team. They might win game 2 but in no way am I backing them. The pacers ran with them today and since the hawks are pretty crappy defensively I don't think their game plan will change much.

The inside game of the Atlanta is terrible. Hence why they don't get to the free throw line. And when they do they shoot terribly. Indy doesn't play so well in Atlanta so the hawks have a shot there.
 
Pacers didn't play a great game but the Hawks showed zero resistance, they basically played the Pacers back into form. Hawks stellar ATS run on Sunday is halted.

Also noticing the refs are making their presence felt early this postseason. Gonna have to incorporate it into the 'capping plan' a little more.
 
0-2 (-5.6)

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

The play...

Bucks +12.5 +112 (2 to win 2.24)

Local line. 1 seed v 8 seed, best team in the world v bunch of scrubs - so an inflated spread. Have this at 10 by my numbers. Bucks a capable team. Was gonna go a little bigger but will stay disciplined for now.

Refs Salvatore and Corbin working the game tonight. Both are noted 'roadies' that like to let 'big dogs' hang, Heat also a combined 2-8 ATS laying DD's under these guys.

:shake:
 
0-3 (-7.6)

Brutal campaign so far.

Got a live wager pending on the Bulls ML +220 (Posted in-game).

Looking at the Clippers late. Grizz actually played extremely efficient basketball in Game 1 yet still lost, lack of an 'outside game' is gonna bite Memphis in this series.

Checking in with the 'local'...
 
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How second best team in the league in rebounding, losing the game 23 - 47 under the rims, can play extremely efficient basketball game?

BOL on the Bulls!
 
Finally won something.

Gonna see what happens live in LA, may get involved then. Lean Clips but respect Hollins a ton more-so than Del *****. Refs are also a concern. Will know early if the Grizz have adjusted.

Ain't gonna piss around tomorrow. Like what I see...
 
1-3 (-5.4)

Late to the party. Busy day.

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

The play...

Knicks -6.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
Knicks better with Prigioni in the lineup and got the first game jitters out after a decade of postseason failings. C's failed to steal Game 1 when they had the chance and the absence of Rondo couldn't be more evident, dude has been their x-factor in playoffs past.

C's 2-6 ATS after failing to crack 90 in consecutive games...
 
2-3 (-3.4)

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers

The play...

Pacers -7.5 +101 (2 to win 2.02)

:shake:
 
Hawks played the Pacers into form regardless of the FT discrepancy. The A-T-L misses the rugged play of ugly ass Zaza under the rims and has no answer for the Pacers inside. Hawks lack of heart makes them horrible in 'revenge' spots. Drew a poor coach and an even worse playoff coach, dude has no idea about rotations and match-ups...
 
fully agree

pacers are just a terrible matchup for an atlanta team with no inside game and no brains
 
3-3 (-1.38)

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies

The play...

Clippers +4.5 -102 (2.04 to win 2)

Don't figure the Clips to be complacent after taking a 2-0 series lead, think they'll come out strong here and they're no stranger to playing in the Memphis 'atmosphere' given last season's series. Grizz are a more efficient team but not necessarily a better team without Yag, more often than not you need that 'x-factor' to win a game or 2 in the playoffs, i.e CP3. Have to take the points...

:shake:
 
3-4 (-3.42)

Weak play on the Clippers last night. Not sure what I was thinking.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (Game Three)

The play...

Nuggets ML -118 (2.36 to win 2)

:shake:
 
Nuggets off a rare homecourt 'beatdown' fueled by their own shitty defense and an opponent that couldn't miss. Lightening rarely if ever strikes in the same place twice. Like them to adjust and respond accordingly.

Want to bet the Knicks real bad. Line is inflated slightly towards the C's given the 'Game 3 Zig-Zag' but Boston is horrible and nowhere near it's former playoff glory days. This isn't Grizz v Clips where both teams are 'good', C's are totally outmatched here. The Boston 'emotional' factor is the only real thing holding me back. Refs somewhat 'un-Celtic' also...
 
Knicks also an 'old team' with a few key kogs banged up (Chandler, Pablo etc) so wrapping things up quick better serves their players.

May check in with the local closer to tip and see what he's got on offer.

+2.5 or 3 is a road team line...
 
nbafan88 said:
yep that 2.5 is a road line, im on the celtics 1h -2

gl emkee
Click to expand...

Yea unless refs help or melo and Jr have bad shooting nights. Don't see how Knicks lose. Boston won the last two 1st half's think Knicks win this half
 
Done.

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (Game Three)

The play...

Knicks +2.5 (2 units)

:shake:
 
Have accepted the high probability the Knicks will be trailing after the 1st quarter...
 
4-5-0 (-3.78)

Grinding through the early round.

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (Game Four)

The play...

Clippers +3.5 (3 units)

:shake:
 
GL today Emkee. Had Denver last night as well. Hard for me to be on top of those matchups because they start so late here on the East Coast.
 
4-6-0 (-6.9)

A bit out of rhythm to start the playoffs, will adapt soon enough and hopefully get rolling.

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

The play...

Knicks ML -120 (2.4 to win 2)

See nothing that favors the C's today other than the Knicks totally not showing up. Boston looks worn out and defeated, Game 3 was lined as 'their game' to take and they failed miserably. A Knicks sweep would give their 'aged' roster some decent rest before facing the Pacers or Hawks in the next round. Will take the team playing for a title over the team playing for pride.

My 'numbers' also very New York heavy but they obviously don't factor in the 'mindset/mental aspect'...

:shake:
 
JR Smith being out is fairly significant but will only encourage Melo to score more. Knicks deep enough to hold shit down unlike their opponent...
 
yea, Celtics just dont have enough to keep up offensively. Unless the Knicks really slack on D and those jumpers start falling for the C's, even then, I think the Knicks will pull out the victory - gl
 
Thanks Tito.

Had this series pegged as a sweep from the get-go. Hopefully it holds true to form...
 
Scufflin' in this 1st round.

Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks

The play...

Pacers +1.5

:shake:
 
4-8 (-10.2)

Am a 'Grade A' fade right now. Have been here before in the regular season and pulled my ass back, will do so again in the playoffs.

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

The play...

Nuggets -7.5 (4 units)

Like this play some. Thoughts later...

:shake:
 
Thanks fellas.

Desperate team back home for a must-win game, not too mention they had the best 'homecourt' advantage during the regular season and have already lost to their opponent there once in this series.

Nuggets haven't played a good game all series, so in some senses 'they're due' and I think they do so tonight against a beatable opponent that has been on an offensive tear (bound to cool off at some stage).

GSW could also be forgiven for taking the foot off the gas pedal with the mindset of closing this series out at Oracle, which is often the case.

NBA teams in the 1st round with a win order of Loss, Win, W, W and in the Home, Home, Away, A, H, A, H playoff format are 0-6 SU and ATS in Game 5 (Bulls were in this exact spot last night)...
 
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Fellas...

:shake:

Let's also not forget the Warriors are a 'young team'. Always hard to try and psycho-analyze a team's mindset but it's a massive ask for these guys to close out a series they were never really envisioned to win by most on enemy territory versus a somewhat seasoned opponent. Much more inclined to think they 'put the cue' in the rack so to speak and close things out in the comfy confines of Oracle arena. All that though would be helped gratefully by Denver coming out like the beast they were at home for the most part of the season, get up big and instill that 'mindset' forcefully into the young minds of Golden State...
 
That's my 'postseason' in a nutshell.

Nuggets outscored 31-21 in the 4th.

NBA is what it is...
 
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