NBA Playoff Hump Day Picks

[Inspekdah]

Last night was a solid 4-0... finally got a gimme given back to me from the first Orlando +6.5 debacle in Game2. They were lucky last night to lose by just 5... especially with Nelson clearly fouling with 2 or 3 seconds left.... but as you can see the game was in hand and no real reason to call that.


Hornets did what I was told they would do... I owe a few people for talking me out of Spurs. 3Q was setup so perfectly, and the second half also set up extremely nice.

So, again we saw one more road team/dog cover. Hornets then blew out the Spurs so the split was 1-1 road ats vs. home ats. I think tonight you'll see another split... but really feel like BOTH home teams tonight will indeed win the game. Usually don't play these but I feel like the books put themselves at risk during the playoffs when they put 2, must-win home teams who are arguably superior even on a neutral floor to their opponent....

%'s on both games tonight look like a 50/50 split... probably a combination of the books raising these spreads a point or two to try to compensate for this home team/fav run we have on our hands.

I will hope to continue this home team success... although I will not lay 8.5 and 9 respectively... as I've said before I expect a split ATS.. but w/ both teams to protect their home turf vs. two poor road teams.


Boston -3/Lakers -2.5 -130 $1950 to win $1500

You do these type of bets in regular season and you can get bit. Boston would rarely be only favored 8 or 9 at home, and the Lakers the same. Then you have to hope they don't "let down". Shouldn't be the case here...

If Boston covers too... hedge opportunity w/ Jazz +3.5 +200 available on BM.

 

[EHS49]

you are the man.

 

[STEED]

good luck bro

 

[EHS49]

i kept telling myself about history repeating itself. that the game was won in the 3rd and 2nd half in games 1 and 2. carbon copy of the first two. i already had SA for ML and didn't want to go against myself. but a good capper/bettor should not take previous bets into account unless a hedge/middle opportunity is presented. i had the over and sa for full game. at half leaned under and no as i posted in the in game. great job as always keep it up.

i cannot argue with your tease ^^^^.

 

[Inspekdah]

Thanks guys:shake:

 

[Jeffro355]

hey, i am new to CTG (long time covers member). My local gives me 7point teasers, 2 teams for NBA @ -140. Is this a good deal for basketball teasers? I know they are sucker bets, but from looking at online books, I am getting more points. I also was thinking about teasing Boston and Lakers tonight. GL

 

[EHS49]

boston and lakes is a good tease.

 

[Inspekdah]

Yeah it's not a bad deal at all. Since I paid roughly 20% on the standard 10% to get an extra full point... your getting an extra TWO points for only 30%. Your paying only 5% for each additional half point. So, yes, some value.

Teasers are only sucker bets if you do them too often and under circumstances where you can question the drive behind a team to cover in certain circumstances.


I don't think you can go wrong with this teaser tonight in terms of its value compared to picking a total, or a side ATS. I think it's right there with them. Like I said too... you can try to hedge should Boston cover.


What is your bookies lines before the teaser? If they are 9, 8.5, or 8 that matters to. Your getting a good deal on the extra point... so compare the original base lines to other ones being offered.

For example, 7 in this case is worthless at -140 if your starting on 9.5's. You know? 7 on 8.5's is awesome.

 

[Jeffro355]

I have to wait til about 6pm tonight to get the lines. I am hoping for 8.5 on each. if it is 9 or higher i probably wont tease (push with a teaser is a loss with local). good luck on your play!

 

[Inspekdah]

Yeah well then you want it to fall on the lowest possible half point because a whole # is worthless w/ that clause. Two 8.5's would be ideal.... win by 2 or more on both and your cashing

 

[Inspekdah]

Decided not to play that as I already have alot riding on them -3. (My deleted 2nd half Boston play)

$172.50 to win $150 Cavs +8 2H
*Hedge Bet, will count $$$ towards record*

 

[JC88]

nice play on the teaser!

 

[Pirate88]

Nice teaser, we both won, doggy style

 

[Retburj13]

nice job 'spek

 

[EHS49]

great job we all won. if you teased it both ways you woulda cashed!! hey we both. i got both my doggies and u got your tease. congrats.

 

[Marlo]

routine.

 

[Inspekdah]

Thanks guys:shake:

Yeah teased any game last night, any way and you would have come out a winner. Just did not see the home teams losing... but I did think one would at worst give up a backdoor... like the Celtics did.

Jazz fought with them all game... and deserved the cover.


The #s now are seriously favoring the home teams with an extra 1 to 2 points on what the lines would normally be.

Lakers probably should have been alot closer to 7 then 8.5. Celtics should have probably been a full point lower....

Now 3 out of the last 4 games the road dog has covered...