NBA Playoff Elimination Game Totals: 2013

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records (based on opening lines) starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 91-59-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 37-36-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 54-23-2


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 51-31-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 28-20-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 23-11-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 40-28-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _9-16
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 31-12-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 27.2%), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.


The one team to prove the exception to the above trends over the time span to which these stats apply (and whose results I've not included above) was the Amar'e Stoudemire era...

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they won SU: U/O 2-8
Elimination games they lost SU: U/O 4-2

For this incarnation of the Phoenix Suns it didn't matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they were playing in, or what Round they're playing it in, as related to their final total result: it came down to their SU performance.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

12-13 Elimination game results


Round 1

SAS @LAL - Game 4: Under
MIA @MIL - Game 4: Under
OKC @HOU - Game 4: Over
NYK @BOS - Game 4: Over (Under in regulation)
CHI @BKN - Game 5: Over
GDS @DEN - Game 5: Under
BOS @NYK - Game 5: Under
HOU @OKC - Game 5: Under
BKN @CHC - Game 6: Over
DEN @GDS - Game 6: Under
NYK @BOS - Game 6: Under
IND @ATL - Game 6: Under
OKC @HOU - Game 6: Under
LAC @MEM - Game 6: Over
CHC @BKN - Game 7: Over


Round 2

CHC @MIA - Game 5: Over
MEM @OKC - Game 5: Under
IND @NYK - Game 5: Under
SAS @GDS - Game 6: Under
NYK @IND - Game 6: Over



Round 3

SAS @MEM - Game 4: Under
MIA @IND - Game 6: Under
IND @MIA - Game 7: Under



Round 4

SAS @MIA - Game 6: Over (Under in regulation)
SAS @MIA - Game 7: Under

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[c.r.e.a.m.]

nice to see you back BC!

:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thnx, cream:shake:

 

[sinkhole]

Miami under also:shake:

 

[divol]

BC, you jumped the gun on Boston - Knicks series. The Under in the last game was in Game 5, not six
Thanks for the database!

 

[Pyppurs]

:shake:love the thread...

are the numbers according to opening or closing numbers?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Pyppurs - opening lines. I'll edit the fact in there (thought it was already mentioned).

sinkhole & divol - thanks. Brain farts on my part.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Round 1

SAS @LAL - Game 4: Under
MIA @MIL - Game 4: Under
OKC @HOU - Game 4: Over
NYK @BOS - Game 4: Over (Under in regulation)
CHI @BKN - Game 5: Over
GDS @DEN - Game 5: Under
BOS @NYK - Game 5: Under
HOU @OKC - Game 5: Under
BKN @CHC - Game 6: Over
DEN @GDS - Game 6: Under

Looking at the results to date, sans 1 series (CHC/BKN) every remaining game bar 1 has gone Under in regulation.

 

[consilience]

BC, have you documented 1st half total results in these games also?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

BC, have you documented 1st half total results in these games also?

Sorry, I don't.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thursday sees our first 2nd round+ elim. Game 6 or 7, annnnd it had to be at the weaker team's venue. If this was in SAS, I'd trust it to stay Under more. I take nothing away from the fact GS hosted Game 4 (the lowest total of the series), that's a valley I don't believe these 2 teams capable of reaching again. Frankly, I'd be suprised if these 2 could manage 5 straight games without putting up a combined pts total resembling Game 1's outcome. So history (Unders in this spot) clashes with my general expectations (190s minimum, 200+ expectation), hence I have to pass.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Here's a link recording all the Game 7s in NBA Finals history.

Most relevant scoring cliff note: since the 80's Showtime era ended, there have been 3 x Game 7s:

90-84, 81-74 & 83-79 have been the final scorelines.