NBA October bets

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
Hey everyone. Excited for the season to be back. Hopefully will be around all season to track and discuss the games. Haven’t spent nearly as much time on capping NBA as I used to, but still follow very closely

Opening night-
Houston +9 -105- 1 unit
Houston 1st H - 1 unit

Think line is inflated and no one wants to go against the buzzsaw Warriors. Fading the championship team coming off flat on the ring ceremony. They obviously have the talent to roll everyone, but hoping to catch them flat from emotion. They also tended to start games slowly last year.
 
Thanks BAR.

Split yesterday even with the Houston straight up win. GS will still be fantastic this year and I’m sure I’ll bet on them a few times as big Home faves.

Only 1 game I’m betting today so far:
Washington -7 -105-1 unit
Washington -4 -115- 1 unit

Low line with lots of hype around the Process sixers. I do not think they’re ready to play yet whatsoever, and Embiid only playing 16-19 min to cover up the rest of their problems. Wash when healthy could be the best team in the East as of this moment until Bos and Cle integrate their new pieces.

Other leans are Detroit, Brooklyn, Denver.
 
Orlando ML +145- 0.8 to win 1.16

A small bet on thinking Miami is stronger vs tired teams mid-season with their playing style last year. Both teams coming in with similar rosters as last year. I know Miami runs a tight ship, but still don’t trust some of these guys all after getting big contracts. Worth a shot on the dog here in their home opener
 
Denver ML +125 - 0.9 for 1.125

Thinking Utah has more adjusting to do to integrate the new pieces and live without Hayward. I think consensus sees these 2 teams as the same tier, but I don’t see it
 
Tor-SAS-Mia ML Parlay-124- 1 unit

No strong lean on sides. Bumpy start. Would lean Memphis in the GS game, and would’ve been on Orlando if they had their guys
 
Mm horrible decision. Leaned Orlando to start and got suckered by the momentum and nice line. Poor start to season
 
2nd H OKC/Minn Under 104.5- 2 units

Slow pace to the first half that I’m expecting to slow much more for a close game. Expecting an inefficient iso 4th q. Obvious concerns of free throw fuckery/OT, but not enough not to bet this.
 
Great game. Wrong side to be on. Going to take it slow for a little. Clearly was not ready for the start of this season
 
Taking it slow at first is definitely smart. Was a little lucky as I decided before the season started to focus on fading Suns which has worked well
 
One little bet. Boston the better team that was shook from the Hayward injury the first time these guys played. After some time to practice and plan they were a different team and should be ready.

Boston +4.5 -105- 1 unit
ML +165- 0.5 unit
 
Picking up a little momentum. One I like a lot today

Detroit +8 -105- 1.5 unit
Detroit ML +315- risking 0.5 unit

See this as a big flat spot for the Clips. Off a crazy buzzer beating win, sitting undefeated, and seeing a major game with GS on deck Monday.
 
Very happy with the big ML hit. Was a definite look ahead for Clips. 2 plays for now:

Brooklyn +4.5 -105 - 1 unit
ML +165 risking 0.5
Denver’s offense has been a mess this season and think they’re just overvalued based on how they started last year. Off a win which is helpful, playing in Brooklyn. Wish the game was an earlier start as I like to fade the early Sunday starts in NY/LA. Have the more exciting matchup the next night in NY. Think Brooklyn’s team is fine and should be a little awake after the embarrassing loss to NY.

Charlotte -4 -105- 1.5 unit
Flat spot off an awesome win over San Antonio for Orlando. Playing on the road will be much tougher. Think this line goes down more so may be adding a unit or half unit closer to tip

Will likely also be on Wash when we hear about suspensions. Winnable game for them to avoid a bad road trip record.
 
Last edited:
Nice hit on the Pistons. I was on it also. You were exactly right, the clips looked lethargic all night
 
Like these plays
Nets are playing with real revenge. In the games before Cleveland they rested their players. They could have mauled Atlanta instead just a tap. I believe they might have beaten Orlando but possibly unconsciously lost to set up the best spot possible for the attack on Cleveland. Knicks were a harmless team without a win they put in no effort and will hit Denver with everything they have
 
Updated amounts including a dabble on Nets ML. Misread the movement on the news game and took too early. Carrol out and line up to 5.5, +190 now. Still waiting on suspension news for Brad Beal. I’ll occupied 2-3 pacific, so may not be able to wait for news and place a bet
 
Split yesterday. Liked this one without the injuries, but without a front court, it’s going to be tougher for Toronto to hang and more importantly, easier for them to just give up. No other real good situational reason here other than that I feel Portland is better than the lines have caught up to them.

Portland -3.5 -105- 1 unit
 
Houston -7 105- 1.5 units

Like the play of fading philly of fun emotional wins. Think they come in too high. Houston off the loss and know they need to bring it vs Philly from the close game last week.
 
2 dog bets I’m loving tomorrow.

Sacramento +5.5 -105 - 3 units
ML +210- 0.5 unit

LA Lakers +4 -105- 1.5 unit
ML +150- 0.5 unit
1st H +1.5 -105- 1 unit

Awesome spot. Indi, still without their best player and potentially more, sandwiched between beating the spurs and a big game at Cleveland the next day. Sac has been in rough spots that I think explain the poor losses lately

Will also be on the Lakers but hoping the line moves in Detroit’s favor. Detroit high off major upset wins now favored on the road to the lowly Lakers feels like a definite flat spot.
 
Last edited:
Couldn’t be further off on this Sac bet. These cycling of players in/out of the rotation for Sac is probably not good for them
 
Will update record eventually. I think something like down 9 units. Will be fading GS plenty. SAS with playoff revenge and should be much better at home than they’ve been on the road. Also trust Pop to have some things to try that GS hasn’t seen.

San Antonio +8.5 -105- 1 unit
 
Not sure what to say about Miami. When I looked at the gamelogs it seemed as if they just got confused and stopped playing for awhile
 
More of an action bet, but Portland hasn’t shown much of anything this season yet not to mention b2b off OT
Lakers +6.5 -105- 1 unit
 
Celtics +6.5 -105 - 1 unit

Also will be on Brooklyn and Philly. Waiting those lines out.

For Philly I think it’s a letdown off a big win. Also think Turner back may mess up the chemistry they’ve shown

For Celtics, I just think they’ll be great. They lost the first 2 games on a b2b off the horrific and shaking view of Hayward going down. Too many points for a team that may be better than OKC

Brooklyn- lakers on a b2b off a crushing loss that tend to carry over
 
OKC is actually better than Boston. I did put in a teaser of Suns and Boston because neither will stop. GL
 
Total card for 11/3

Sixers -4.5 -105- 1.5 unit

Cleveland +3.5 -105- 1 unit
—ML +135- 1 unit

Miami 1st H ML +3- 1 unit
—1st H ML +155- 0.5 unit

Celtics +6.5 -105- 1 unit
— ML +210- 0.5 unit

Brooklyn +2.5 -105- 1 unit
—ML +120- 0.5 unit
 
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