NBA Monday...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Overall: 69-62-2 +6.33 units
Latestretch: 1-0 +3.00 units


Put two seperate up there for my own tracking purposes.

One really sticks out today for me. This totally qualifies as one of those late season plays imo. Chicago has been playing some very good ball lately. Nice wins against New Orleans and Boston. Impressive win at Okalhoma City as well. That team has ben a machine at home this calender year. Tthe Lakers game had to be dissapoiting to them getting smoked 36-22 in 4th but they played excellent up until that point. The Bulls currently have one game lead in loss column to Charlotte and two to Milwaukee. Every game is huge right now. Now, I know one of the first things that will be said is its a lookahead game to Detroit at the UC on Tuesday night. That is fine and dandy. The bulls are just 2.5 games behind the 'Stons for the 7th spot. But, they can just as easily miss the playoffs. Very important to take care of business here.

The you have the Bullets who are having another terrific season in DC. They have won 4 of 5 in this series but thats irrelevant when we get to this time of year. Plus they got their upset of Chicago at home less than four weeks ago. I'll say agin, 4 weeks ago I never touch this game. We are officially into "gone fishin" season in NBA. The Bullets west coast trip just proved that. A sterling 0-4 by over 18 ppg on average. It's been a dismal season and they are ready for it to be over. Washingtons only two wins in their last 10 were against Minnesota and a two point thriller at MCI against the Kings. Enough said.

Chicago -6 -110 3 units
 
You didn't even mention my favorite aspect of this game. This is a circled game for the Bulls IMO... that game a few weeks ago in DC... that was the game Obama attended. He's a big Bulls fan, he had the players at the White House the day before, they were psyched outta their minds to play in front of him, and they got annihilated and humiliated. They will PUNISH Washington in this game IMO. They'll do it for their playoff hopes, and to redeem themselves in the eyes of our Bulls-loving president, lol.
 
nice line..see 7's now and some 7.5

that westie the Bernards just had was dreadful...u could see it in their play they had no intention of wanting to compete FG...only in 1H mostly (Suns and Clips game come to mind) then the doors came off and blow out city...there bench is laughable and even the injured stay injured cause why bother

i agree on your play but Bulls layin chalk I am still scared by...at home...yes...on road??? I think maybe the Bernards compete some then cruise into Masters mode when Bulls take game over

like the Bulls but maybe see if I can get 6 again or hope for a good value HT play if by chance the Bernards are leading.

gl BAW
 
Killa, very interesting. Yes, the beer-gate game. I remembered it for that fact because I heard on local radio here that a lot of people were flipping out in DC that he was at the game drinking a beer and *gasp* there was a young kid within the area. Only in America.


Also want to point out they have barely adjusted the line since last time these two played. Totally different situation this time around compared to then. When the discussion thread came up last night I was projecting in my head to see a 7-8 here in all honesty. I'll take it though at this point.

Off-topic. When I got home yesterday, the Clippers-Raptors game was on CBC-Canada. Well, the game was just going to halftime. They were talking to Bosh and maybe this is funny too me but they basically asked..."Why do you guys have so much success against the Clippers". I was rolling. What a horrific question. I wish he would just said "Because they are the fuckin Clippers!"
 
Ret- Yeah I couldn't personally stomach this play to be honest, not with an 11-26 road team. He does have some nice angles working for him, but I agree that line value on the Bulls is nonexistent.
 
Killa said:
You didn't even mention my favorite aspect of this game. This is a circled game for the Bulls IMO... that game a few weeks ago in DC... that was the game Obama attended. He's a big Bulls fan, he had the players at the White House the day before, they were psyched outta their minds to play in front of him, and they got annihilated and humiliated. They will PUNISH Washington in this game IMO. They'll do it for their playoff hopes, and to redeem themselves in the eyes of our Bulls-loving president, lol.
Click to expand...

they were intimidated by playing in front of obama ?? shocking.



to what number is this still a play ? tailed small at -7 but wondering if it is still worth a full unit at that number.
 
nice line..see 7's now and some 7.5



Wow, is it really Ret? I seriously played this at about 11:15 est. No more than 45-50 minutes ago. Little 15 minute write-up. Can't believe it surged that quick. I woulda expected a 5 before that from my faders..lol. I definitely still advoctate at 7. It would have been a play. I in fact almost went 4 units at 6 fwiw.
 
Killa said:
^^^ Yeah I couldn't personally stomach this play to be honest, not with an 11-26 road team. He does have some nice angles working for him, but I agree that line value on the Bulls is nonexistent.
Click to expand...


Understanable. But line value is gonna fall off the face of earth for the rest of the regular season for most part. Its that time of year. Only way to get respectable numbers is to get on bookmaker every day 3:30-4:00 est and hit them right away. Then again, half the games are OTB at that point due to injuries and guys like Pop decide that the senior citizens need some rest.

Its a funny in theory. The Miami-memphis game is being discussed a lot. I couldn't stomach a play on Mmemphis today. No way, no how. Now, could I earlier in year. Absolutely, very solid situational plays. Trends and some of these live dogs start flying out the window now with around three weeks to go.
 
B.A.R. said:
Understanable. But line value is gonna fall off the face of earth for the rest of the regular season for most part. Its that time of year. Only way to get respectable numbers is to get on bookmaker every day 3:30-4:00 est and hit them right away. Then again, half the games are OTB at that point due to injuries and guys like Pop decide that the senior citizens need some rest.

Its a funny in theory. The Miami-memphis game is being discussed a lot. I couldn't stomach a play on Mmemphis today. No way, no how. Now, could I earlier in year. Absolutely, very solid situational plays. Trends and some of these live dogs start flying out the window now with around three weeks to go.
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree with you as a general rule on your end of year strategy but you really take it to the extreme. You usually hit all these plays that fit this system at this time of year (team in race vs. team out of race), pretty much blind, regardless of line value or any other factors. Clearly it works b/c you usually do really well at the end. I couldn't bring myself to hit 'em all blind tho like you do, regardless of whatever line they throw up there, because I'm also a value-German in addition to my general philosophy of situational/motivational capping. On the latter (situational/motivational capping), this Bulls play is a thing of beauty in my eyes, but on the former (line value), it's not my cup of tea at -7. It's hard to strike a balance between what you KNOW is a great spot, and a refusal to give in and bet whatever line they throw up there, b/c I think that's playing by the book's rules and letting the book win in a sense.

Also, on the other side, I can bring myself to at least consider bets on teams who are out of races, where as you just seem to consider them all unbettable from about this point on.

Blah GL with this one and in the next few weeks, hope u tear it up man.
 
Yes, the beer-gate game. I remembered it for that fact because I heard on local radio here that a lot of people were flipping out in DC that he was at the game drinking a beer and *gasp* there was a young kid within the area.


oh my goodness! what would spuds mckenzie say???


bol with your play bar - can't play the Bulls chalk on the rd, but it is Wash...
 
Killa said:
Yeah I agree with you as a general rule on your end of year strategy but you really take it to the extreme. You usually hit all these plays that fit this system at this time of year (team in race vs. team out of race), pretty much blind, regardless of line value or any other factors. Clearly it works b/c you usually do really well at the end. I couldn't bring myself to hit 'em all blind tho like you do, regardless of whatever line they throw up there, because I'm also a value-German in addition to my general philosophy of situational/motivational capping. On the latter (situational/motivational capping), this Bulls play is a thing of beauty in my eyes, but on the former (line value), it's not my cup of tea at -7. It's hard to strike a balance between what you KNOW is a great spot, and a refusal to give in and bet whatever line they throw up there, b/c I think that's playing by the book's rules and letting the book win in a sense.

Also, on the other side, I can bring myself to at least consider bets on teams who are out of races, where as you just seem to consider them all unbettable from about this point on.

Blah GL with this one and in the next few weeks, hope u tear it up man.
Click to expand...


Your pretty right on when I won't consider the shit teams down the stretch. Just too many spots too take the night off. I will look at overs in their games as defense usually slips more and more. Once in awhile their will be a situation that warrants a play. Thats me finding a very good angle through reading, etc.

As far as blindly, I still cap the games. I don't cap to a number obviously. Atlanta game comes to mind. I do think they win by double figures, but is it the high teens or low teens. The homestand was outstanding and Minny is B2B. Spurs, Boston and Lakers coming for for Atlanta as well...The biggest thing here is they are almost LOCKED into that 4th seed. With a 3.5 game cushion on the Heat right now, that series will almost certainly be starting out at Phillips. So, the motivation might not be there as their position is already defined for most part.
 
i like the play bar, gl

does anybody know about caron butler...i know they list him as doubtful, anybody have some more definitive info
 
and how about tim thomas...he didn't play last game and only 4 minutes the game before...if he doesn't play that means chicago is playing with 7 as they did vs the lakers...either way i'm going to be on chicago but some info regarding those 2 guys would help
 
a lot of good thoughts in this thread, BAR.

...unfortunately i can't back a team laying more than a possession with that road record, but i'm not sure i have any interest in the Wizkids
 
the Jordan's up to -7.5 now...damn

and even my local has 8...

even here in Boston, there is no mercy for the hapless Bullets

i must pass for now and hope for Bulls value at HT...even at 8, i cant ride the putrid Bullets
 
Memphis and Minnesota are very different situations Bar. High teens pretty much a joke and a 8-9 point win probably ball park. As for Chicago simply not a legal play for me. Bulls 2-13 last 15 on the road this season in first game of a b-b.
 
Tuck, like I said, this would have been a death play for me any other time earlier this season. The one game I wanted to guage was the Okla City game. I wasn't sure if they were ready to go win in what has become a tough venue for the opposition. They did it.

A few weeks ago I went thru my rotation book and pretty much circled games I thought would fit my late season strategy. I kinda circled the OKC-CHI game with an asterisk..wante too see that one first and hence why I decided to pull CHI out tonight.

GL on your plays tonight.

Tazz,

as far as Denver Phoenix I lean slightly to the over. No Bosa though is pretty big. I don't know Phoenix mindset right now as too whether or not their ready to concede. Nuggets are in important games from here on out.
 
I think they should handle them after how the game at Staples went Zecco. Just too many too lay here. I wonder what Orlando and Boston start doing to avoid that 2nd seed and having to play DET..mainly Orlando. I'll try and post some stuff later about how Orlando is scared. Read it last night, just have to find it.
 
BAR, lovin the bulls run and think they will stay on this run until they can secure the last seed, but Wash lost 4 straight and 0-4 ATS for the last 4.

They will be playing 2 playoff-running teams (Chi, Cha) and I strongly think they will cover against 1 of them. Would lay it with Chi, but the number looks like it'll stabilize around 7.5 and that's quite inflated.

GL
 
Washington is 2-2 ats last 4 and I think Washington cares more about beating the Bobcats than the Bulls. BAR may cash. Think those that follow on bad numbers may get unlucky but who knows.
 
Thanks for correcting Tuck. I made a quick glimpse of Wash's 4 previous games, but assumed they were 0-4 ATS since they were pretty much losts by DD. They lost by: 15 at Utah; 15 at LA (clippers); 11 at Denver; 32 at Phoenix. They might've rear-end covered 2 games in that stretch.
 
No pick today B.A.R.? Was kind of hoping you'd have one to tail tonight. Your time of year! rough one last night, come back and get it!
 
Yeah...was watching on phone...dissapoiting but its all about making a solid profit in next few weeks..been looking for a bit
 
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