NBA Monday picks + writeups

Satyr

Paster of Muppets
I've been digging for the last half an hour trying to figure out what the heck is happening with the Jazz-Bulls spread. The line opened at -3 I think, now down to -1,5, could it be the thinking about the letdown spot for the Jazz after a big win? Nah, that would just pump up the line in the other way probably. Bulls are riding their newly found chemistry but this movement doesn't make sense.

There are no significant injuries in the Jazz squad, apart from the already known absence of Carlos Boozer, without whom they won against two out of three most powerful teams on the West. He was replaced well by Paul Millsap, who has shown both aggressiveness and versatility in his first career start against league leading Suns. Another "solar eclipse" has much to do with Millsap's ability to defend, he switched from Marion to Diaw and has stepped up when his team needed him.

On the offensive end, he hasn't been as impressive as Boozer, but he is still developing after being promoted to a starter not long ago.
The Bulls surely have one of the stingiest defenses around, after all they hold opponents to 43.4 percent shooting, second-best in the NBA.
My initial lean here was the under, but the way these teams have been playing lately, I can't pull the trigger on that one, even though the matchups would suggest exactly that.
The Bulls however, even though riding an impressive winning streak, haven't played much against top opposition lately. This will be their 4th road clash in a row, previously playing in LA (lost to the Clippers), Seattle and Portland, both games won in a rather routinely manner.
Utah, on the other hand, have beaten both San Antonio and Phoenix in their last two, showing versatility and adaptability playing against two different basketball philosophies, winning both games. Bulls have scoring depth, they have defense, but the Jazzers have been playing even better lately.
I don't think this is a letdown spot for the Jazz, they're playing in their building (17-6 this season), and with these odds I'll take a bite.

7 units (1.84 @ Pinnacle)


More coming up, stay tuned.:cheers:
 
I would like everyone, who are interested in Pacers-GSW match-up and post-trade look of both teams, to read this article.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070205/SPORTS04/702050354/1088

A very informative piece of text, explains why Carlisle decided to bring in the new guys, and what he expects out of the new team, in tactical terms.

Btw, there is a rumor Jermaine O'Neal is questionable for tonight (still no confirmation on that one), hence the line movement in the IND-GSW game (from -8 to -5,5). Even if we put that aside, I will be skipping that game. I've been riding Indiana for 4 out of their 6 post-trade wins, and lost on one of their defeats by half a point (had +7,5), but I won't be touching this one that's for sure. They look better than the Warriors at the moment, but all these guys will come out fired up for the game and I wouldn't touch anything here.
 
I do drop by to the "other site" occasionally and I've seen your Bulls write-up there, you have good arguments can't say you don't, the only thing I wouldn't agree is that this line movement automatically means absence of someone in the Jazz team, at least that's what I understood you were saying. Anyways, I respect both teams here, both are playing very well lately, I just find enough value in taking the Jazz tonight at home against the Bulls, I think Sloan exploits their weaknesses here, Bulls need to get scoring from both Hinrich and Gordon tonight, if their backcourt fails this could get ugly, and Jazz have some nasty defenders, plus I don't think two HUGE wins automatically means letdown.
Not for me at least, I wouldn't argue with someone thinking the other way.

Good luck DuY. :shake:
 
I would like everyone, who are interested in Pacers-GSW match-up and post-trade look of both teams, to read this article.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070205/SPORTS04/702050354/1088

A very informative piece of text, explains why Carlisle decided to bring in the new guys, and what he expects out of the new team, in tactical terms.

Btw, there is a rumor Jermaine O'Neal is questionable for tonight (still no confirmation on that one), hence the line movement in the IND-GSW game (from -8 to -5,5). Even if we put that aside, I will be skipping that game. I've been riding Indiana for 4 out of their 6 post-trade wins, and lost on one of their defeats by half a point (had +7,5), but I won't be touching this one that's for sure. They look better than the Warriors at the moment, but all these guys will come out fired up for the game and I wouldn't touch anything here.

I'm looking at the 'under' here.
 
I tend to agree that the total is a tad high there, however as I said, nothing would surprise me in that game. I'll just sit back and watch. Good luck :shake:
 
The total in the GS/IND game is going to depend on the pace that the teams fall into.
I think that it could go way under, or way over....staying the way


Good Luck,
Franky
 
My posted record is 25 W - 26 L 1 V -20.24 units at the moment. My actual record (singles only of course) is -5 units, and thanks to that 3 way parlay 2 days ago I'm actually in profit, barely but I am. You can also notice the small number of picks, I posted more than half of it in the last few weeks, started actually following this season just recently, as I was busy before. Post All star break and the playoffs was always my forte anyways, hoping to make up for a slow start. :shake:
:cheers:
 
Don't let your girl know.....
bankrupt.jpg
 
Chicago's Andres Nocioni will miss tonight's game against the Utah Jazz because of plantar fasciitis in his right foot.
 
I dont know your unit system. When I see you have this for 7 units: Is this a large play for you?

I mention it from time to time since I know I have a different unit system than most of you guys, but I won't change it since it's been like that since I started tracking my bets. In Europe we use 1-10 unit system.

Not to repeat myself, I'll just c/p my post from the "Flat bet vs varying bet sizes" thread:

Satyr said:
My staking system is simple. The plays are graded, 1-10 units, units solely represent the size of a wager, not the probability of the outcome.

Criteria are: value (odds), probability of a bet cashing in. The bigger the disparity between the odds and the probability is, the bigger is the stake. When it comes to value bets. In ATS bets, I tend to look for the indicators that point to a certain outcome, and determine the stakes according to my estimations.

10 units equal 5% of my betting bank, so I avoid bankrupcy at all times. I rarely make "big dough" but the fact that I have never ended a season (in any US sport or combined) in a loss, has to mean something as well.

NBA has made the most units for me so far, roughly +300 over 3,5 years. A couple of big wins, like when I took SA Spurs to win the championship (2002/2003 season @ 18.00 at one point of the season) for instance. Also in 2005 playoffs alone I have made +89 units.


NHL I haven't made many bets and there were ups and downs, biggest win: Calgary to win the conference @ 81.00 (taken in the middle of the season) two years ago.

MLB has made me approximately ~+50 units in the season (only 3rd season betting on the bases, been very selective in the start, now working with more picks, but never a fan of too many)

NFL I'm clueless about, being European it's hard to follow everything. Naturally I don't know anything about college sports either.

Plus, I have it all documented on various European boards, so feel free to ask if you want confirmation. Cheers man.


Hope that explains it. :shake: :cheers:
 
Nice call dude. Sometimes we get too caught up in the reverse line movements. Glad you stuck with it and collected.
 
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