NBA Monday 11-3-08

[Marlo]

9-9 +4.31 units
0-2 -6.60
9-11 -2.29

Orlando/Chicago Over 196 2 units
Very similar sentiments as the under below. Total is very close to where it should be, but both teams can run and gun. If both teams can hit some shots, this one should sail over 200. If we see another poor shooting performance from Orlando, than I doubt it goes over. But you can't discount the amount of 3 pt shots Orlando takes. They don't have a ton of 2nd chance buckets, becuase of this. 3pt shots equal long rebounds, which equal baskets in transition. Chi-town is more of a over team on the road. Chicago also comes into this game off 2 low scoring games against Memphis and Boston. Orlando comes off this game after a high scoring game at home against Sacramento, prior to that we saw 2 low scoring games against Memphis/Atlanta. Neither team played yesterday, and they both get a day off before there next tilt.

The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

105-96

GSW/Memphis Over 194.5 4 units.
Basically echo BAR's statement on the listed total. If this game was in December-April we see a 200+ total. GSW pace is unreal. Memphis is similar in pace, but they have had issues with FG%. Look for Memphis to improve against a team that doesn't play alot of defense. Young guys like Mayo, and Yag should have big games with a up and down pace.

110-101


Tuesday Play
Boston +2.5 2 units
will add ML when it comes out.
Will throw up some thoughts before tip

 

[B.A.R.]

Once I have more time in a few hours....def. lean same way on Bulls/Magic total.

 

[Marlo]

added some thoughts to the games.

 

[Marlo]

My numbers for Tuesday

PHX @ NJ
Phoenix -5/197

Boston/Houston
Boston -2/181

Dallas/San Antonio
San Antonio -3/185

Can't wait to watch the Boston/Houston game, Dal/San is always a great game as well. We should get a good feel for this PHX squad as they venture on the road for there first real feel game. The San Antonio game was a revenge game, that should have been a pk.

 

[philjackson]

BOL!

 

[bjorks]

One thing I'm worried about in the GSW/MEM OVER is at some point Nellie's refusal to play his bench is going to catch up to GS early here. Tired legs are going to hit one of these games, which means a slower pace and more missed shots. If GS is cold from 3 tonight, you can kiss the OVER goodbye. Totals with teams that rely that heavily on the 3 are tough.

 

[Tito]

On that GS Over as well - BOL Marlo - :cheers:

 

[scraps@midnight]

warming to that over in memphis. a bit scared of the line move but sure makes sense. good luck marlo...

 

[Ally]

Good luck Marlo.

 

[Marlo]

One thing I'm worried about in the GSW/MEM OVER is at some point Nellie's refusal to play his bench is going to catch up to GS early here. Tired legs are going to hit one of these games, which means a slower pace and more missed shots. If GS is cold from 3 tonight, you can kiss the OVER goodbye. Totals with teams that rely that heavily on the 3 are tough.

thanks guys:cheers:

Bjorks you make a very valid point, but one thing I'm not worried about is tired legs at this stage of the season. Both teams had the day off yesterday, and dont play again until wed.

I think the pace that GSW plays at though, can negate some poor shooting. Memphis with there young guys will adapt to GSW style of play.

 

[Mo]

GOOD LUCK BRO

 

[Marlo]

Tough loss on the total. Chicago went through the 3rd quarter scoring 5 pts for the first 7 minutes of the quarter. Both teams missed free throws down the stretch, we get those and the Chicago makes 2 or 3 more shots and we find an over. Always like to have an over, when the game is close down the stretch, this one just didnt work out.


This Memphis total is sickening to watch, both teams had great pace in the 1st quarter, and then like Bjorks predicted up top GSW have come down shot and missed. No rebounding no 2nd chance oppurtunities. No doubt this team misses B-diddy and Monta's shooting ability. Also Memphis has changed there style, they ran with GSW in the 1st quarter, but after this they have been walking the ball up the court.

Right now I'm not impressed with Mayo, I think he will be great one day, but man this kid is struggling right now. He seems to be looking to pass first, and shoot 2nd. His shots have been off. Rudy Yag and Marc Gasol have both been extremely impressive, but GSW lacks any defense,and a lack of a good big man.

 

[Marlo]

Definatley gonna tame down the units a little bit. Totals have been the death of me so far this season. I think I'm putting to much into last year's numbers, and not watching enough of whats happening on the court. No doubt the defenses are ahead of the offenses right now.

 

[JPicks]

From BC's thread and this was all before tonight:


Totals

prev 23 games: Under..... 15-8 advantage..... +7
prev _7 games: Over......... 4-3 advantage........ -1
last. 11 games: Under....... 9-2 advantage..... +7

No results go unassigned ... Over -1 / Under +14


08-09 has definitely started out with an Under blitz, and things would be worse for Overs except for 2 OT games moosing a couple of more Unders.
In 41 games thus far only 5 have seen both teams score 100+ points in regulation.

41-13 to the under. Sick

 

[Marlo]

I'm putting together some sides for Wednesday, and trying to factor this trend in. No doubt Vegas has taken note. They opened that total @200 and it got smashed down to 194.5 Then we pushed it back up to 200.

I'm gonna love being on the uptick of the overs, think it happens in a week to 10 days, after most teams get 5-7 games under there belts.

 

[JPicks]

I'm putting together some sides for Wednesday, and trying to factor this trend in. No doubt Vegas has taken note. They opened that total @200 and it got smashed down to 194.5 Then we pushed it back up to 200.

I'm gonna love being on the uptick of the overs, think it happens in a week to 10 days, after most teams get 5-7 games under there belts.

And that's exactly what you have to do. At this point in time people start chasing unders and the overs start hitting. Just like SportsNut says. It's just like investing. Always try to be going the opposite of the flock. :shake:

But with that said you don't want to try and catch a falling knife either.

 

[Marlo]

Wednesday prediction's These are just raw predictions at first glance, with out a ton research. I thin Phx opens as a fav against Indy, from what we have seen so far with Toronto, I dont think they should be a dog at home...plust alot of unknowns with Det now that this trade took place. Not bad unknowns, but I think it will take them awhile to gel. Smart move would be to not start AI, and get him gelling with the boys in practice and sparatically in games. Philly should roll over Miami, not impressed with them at all right now. NY/Char not realy sure so just making the home team a favorite. I think Cleveland is better than Orlando right now, I actually think right now Orlando is extremely over valued, but Bron/Bron always plays well against Chi-town. Milwaukee at home is just slightly better than Wash. San Antonio should be able to have there way with Minny, 8 may be to much but 5-6 seems to little, not real sure guess we will see. NO will continue there dominance at home, right where they picked up last year. I think were gonna see alot fo 7-12 pt spreads for NO against some of the bad -average teams when they play them at home. I might be making that Bost number a little to low, especially after a b2b and a big time game, but anything less and I'm discreditng them...thinking OKC if the number is 10+...Not real sure on this Utah number, Deron is still out right? Utah at home is at least 3 pts better than everyone cept LA. Memphis/Sac no clue? Denve same issues as Det right now. GSW returning there first mini roadtrip...BC got a thread about this...def look in there...but I think this is a game GSW wins. They shot terrible tonight, look for that to turn around when they get home..Lakers did I make this high enough?

Pho/Indy ---Phx -3

Det/Toronto ----Toronto -3

Phil/Miami Philly------ -6

Char/NY---- NY -2

Chi/Cle----- Cleve -6

Was/Mil -----Mil -2

SA/Min ----- SA-8

Atl/NO----- NO -8

Bos/OKC ----- Bost -10

Por/Utah ------ -4

Memphi/Sac ------ pk

Den/GSW -----GSW -2 or pk

Lac/LAL ------ -13

Absolutely no idea on totals right now, I think I'm 1-5 or on totals this year. Def should be playing more sides this early in the year, and will probably play them until I watch some more ball. Like I said above we should an increase in totals in the next week or so, once the teams get settled in.

 

[Mo]

Totals are tough dude, its a long season, you will put it together.