NBA ML dogs week of Jan 7-10

[redbearde]

I've taken several days off, and I think that was good - lines have been pretty tight, and while I did miss out on a win with the Hornets at Phoenix the other night, I missed several losses over the last few days, I'm glad I sat out.

I am playing one tonight, though. I don't see a blowout, certainly, but I do think 2 things are extremely important in the Bay. Transition defense, and not turning the ball over leading to poor transition defense...

San Antonio does both of those things well.

Ginobli's playing again, and while Barry's out (a little less depth), I don't think he'd have played against GSW anyway...he's too damned slow.

San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Golden State

now, I know GSW plays great at home. Here's a reality check:

Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.

some other overall stats:
San Antonio has allowed the third fewest points in the league at 91.3 per game.
San Antonio is second in three points made allowed in the league with 5.1 per game.
San Antonio is third in rebounds allowed in the league at 39.3.

Golden State is the second highest scoring team in the league at 108.1 points per game.
Golden State leads the league in three points made with 9.5 per game.
Golden State has the worst defense in the league allowing 106.8 points per game.
Golden State has the worst rebounds allowed in the league 47.9.

San Antonio averages 46% shooting.
Golden St averages 45% shooting

also.......the Warriors beat them on December 11. I know, the Spurs only shot 38%. Tim Duncan wasn't playing, and I don't believe Elson and Oberto replace him quite so well. With Timmy on the court, they'll have to leave someone open, and I think the Spurs will shoot better than 38% tonight.

now, while the spurs offense sucked donkey anus, the defense was still good allowing the Warriors only 39.2% and 25.8% from 3pt range. AND...the Spurs out rebounded the Warriors 51-46 without Tim Duncan.

Spurs had 21 turnovers, and the Warriors had 9. and the Warriors won by 12.

I think it turns around tonight.

Spurs pk +111.72

 

[redbearde]

spurs defense

redbearde praising spurs defense

and that was with about a dozen gift fouls and Duncan miraculously making FTs. maybe someone has their hooks in the more refs.

still....that was some hysterical shit.

:shake:

 

[JPicks]

I was schocked by the Spurs last night personally. I thought they played a great game and what was with Duncan looking like Reggie Miller at the FT line. Guy couldn't miss. So all in all how did they lose? I guess you could say they ran out of steam in OT playing their 4/5 nights, but I think the Warriors are just getting that tough to beat at home. (minus NOH)

 

[redbearde]

they lost because they couldn't shoot for shit. Duncan at the line was hysterical, but the touch fouls they were calling to send him there were funny too. They stopped calling them halfway through OT, and the Warriors started hitting the open 3s. ...well, on the second and third shots of each possession, anyway.

If the Spurs had rebounded like I thought they would, they'd have won that shit. But the Warriors actually out-rebounded the Spurs 44-43.

shrug

it happens.

Tonight I have

Milwaukee +200

 

[redbearde]

I also like the Pacers and the Kings, but I've not played em yet.

 

[Satyr]

GL Red

 

[redbearde]

thanks man.

Pacers +308.7

 

[redbearde]

Nets -2 (+103.88)

Nets have been surging recently. Bobcats have sucked. Kitties haven't beaten the Nets at home...ever as far as I know. Nets are 8-2 last 10 meetings.

and I don't expect this to be a last-second shot sort of qin for the Nets.

New Jersey is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Nets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Bobcats are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog.
Bobcats are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bobcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.

Charlotte is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Charlotte is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Charlotte is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Nets have been playing well. Bobcats are sucking.

I only looked at this one because I thought the line should be 2:1 or 2.5:1 for the Kitties...turns out I gotta play this chalk. how bout that?

did I mention that the bobcats are sucking?

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice hit on the Fucks ML

 

[Retburj13]

nice ML win bro

i couldn't do it...stuck the the points...but u manned up...congrats

 

[redbearde]

yeah, well, my fade of the bobcats resulted in almost 60% shooting.

heh.

and of course the pacers turned in a JOKE of a performance in the 1Q, and I doubt they'll recover.

course, I ain't down much on the night, so I should be happy, I guess.

 

[redbearde]

Raptors -8.5 (-110)

I kinda like the pacers and heat as ML dog value, but I don't like them to win enough to play them.

 

[redbearde]

Well, I have the Suns +150.92 at Utah tomorrow.

since it was gobbled up so quickly, it may well be a monumental mistake. With luck Nash will get over the flu, AK47 will still have a busted back, and Ronnie Price was still in a walking boot last I checked. We shall see.