NBA ML dogs Sunday

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
First, I think Chicago at 2:1 would have been a good play. I'm not sure it was ever available; I didn't really get a chance to look at things until noon, and by then it was down to 4.5.....not sure where the ML was, but off the cuff, I have no interest in fading Lebron at the Q for the forseeable future....especially with a team that screwed me on Friday with a 2 for 20 3rd Q.

at any rate...on to the games I *can* play.

2H for the Bulls/Cavs...this is garbage. Cavs -1.5. Cavs are up 3. Gun to my head, I guess Cavs, but that's all it'd be. I'm not interested in a coin flip like this.

Mavs are right out. I'm not into fading the Lakers right now. The question for me here is do I want to lay that chalk, and no, I don't. I think the number's pretty good, and I'm going to hope for a 2H play on the Lakeshow. so, go Dallas in the 1H.

Atlanta... :36_11_6: yeah right.

Toronto @ Charlotte...this is interesting. I know Bosh is out, but this line looks damned short. mrs.redbearde likes the Raptors by 12, and I tend to agree. With Charlotte's sieve-like defense, Toronto should score at will even without Chris. More key to this one is the lack of Gerald Wallace. ...and they're only getting 3.5.........what's up with that?

Let me put it this way...at MB you can only get 1.5:1, and that's absolute trash for this Charlotte team, even at home.

Toronto is 4-2 SU & ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Charlotte
Toronto is 4-1 SU & ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte

this is called ownership...

and Charlotte's been playing like shit:

Charlotte is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

Their last win was squeaking by Atlanta by 2pts...that's their only win in February.

Hell, I can get Raptors -3.5 at just better than even right now....hmmm...

okay. Yeah. I done talked m'self into it.

Raptors -3.5 (even) ...official redcon ;) play.
 
I'm also seeing several ML dogs I like......

Bucks
Nets
Sonics
Blazers
Heat

yeah, I'm considering betting the Heat. Largely because they've been a bit better, especially against teams that don't like to play defense, and the Kings are finally home off a long road trip. And 7pts is an awful damned lot....hahah, okay, the Spurs have beaten the Nets in the last 10 (TEN) meetings.....covering 9 (nine) of them.

Devin Harris could change that trend, but not for less than 2:1.

holy shit, Washington is up to almost 3:1....wowsers, that's quite a move.

Seattle @ Minny........the sonics at 3:1 is worthwhile. Both teams are shit teams, and unfortunately Minny has shown some defensive life. But if the Sonics can turn them over, then this could be a win. I'm thinking at least 35% chance for Seattle.....and they have won 7 of the last 10, but that's with substantially different teams.....and betting on a Minny game is always a recipe for gastric distress.

Seattle is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS & SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle

I love betting the underdog in shit games, and these two stats are particularly interesting:

Seattle leads the league in rebounds at 45.5.
Minnesota is the worst offensive team in the league averaging just 93.4 points per game.

So at 3:1, I really think I ought to play this.

Blazers @ Warriors- the tough part is that these west teams cannot afford to lose any games. It's been a fun playoff atmosphere to watch, but it's not necessarily a good one to bet. I'm kinda thinking and talking myself out of this one as the Warriors are just so damned tough to beat at home. eck....SteJax said Friday that he expects to play today despite the injury to his ankle.

Heat @ Kings - both teams recent history has sucked donkey nuts.

yet,

Sacramento is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami

and Miami has actually had a couple recent wins...this SacK team is definitely much better at home, but I think this one has decent odds involved at 2.5:1.

Also, first game at home after a long and arduous road trip for the Kings. Miami's GOT to be thinking this is a winnable game. Martin hasn't been shooting well recently, they haven't been playing defense worth a shit for weeks, and their last big win was a 1pt OT defeat of the lowly Bobcats.

I have

Raptors -3.5 (even)
Milwaukee +217.56

I am fishing for

Sonics ML (If you want to lay 315 on the t'wolves, get you ass to matchbook.)
Heat ML ...still considering...
 
:cheers: solid work lately Red

not bad considering we all know Mrs. Red is the brains behind the operations ;)
 
an_laugh.gif
Bucks
 
Looking like a tough day Red. I might back the heat just because I don't know if you're capable of going 0-4.
 
betting on a Minny game is always a recipe for gastric distress.
Click to expand...

that was prophetic. I've got an extreme headache now. I'm hoping the Heat are up at the half so I can sell out of my Heat ML. If I do that I'll be 1 and 2 and I'll make about a unit.

I'm not holding my breath, but geez......that was a brutal game to watch.

Here's me gloating over my long-standing Minnesota Jinx...

jumpy.gif


But in all seriousness, I've had a great couple days, especially yesterday...

but I have lost all my games in a given day many many times. I try to get value in the event I win - and I lose a lot more ML dogs than I win...so yes, I can indeed lose, and seeing me lose 3 wagers in a row is a reeeeally bad reason to load up on the 4th. Earlier this year I had a run of like 12 losses in a row.

Use good judgment whenever you put any money on a game.

:shake:
 
Miami is putting on perhaps the most incredible display of offense I've ever seen out of them.

They're shooting over 70% through 20 minutes.

Holy batshit...Kings fans already booing in the 2nd Q.

24 of 33 from the field
9 of 15 3pt land
16 assists on 24 buckets.

9 different players have scored. no one over 12. 62 points with 3:31 to go in the 2nd.

this is unbefuckinglievable.

THIS IS THE FUCKING MIAMI HEAT.
 
D Wade is fired up. I think he took the talk about getting shut down a little personally, and he's making a statement this game......yet he's not the only one.

This Heat team is going apeshit. I guess I'll roll with the 20pt lead at the half and hope the Kings don't clamp down defensively.
 
ayep.

Heat better wake up.

Problem is they're not driving to the bucket anymore, and every single shot they take is contested. Every damned one.

That and Banks has managed to entirely forget how to play any semblance of defense.

angry.gif


...I did have the option of middling this shit. Oh well...maybe the Heat will actually play well in the 4th quarter...
 
heat down 10 with 1 minute and change left. i thought it was a lock. miami just plain stinks. awful. and to think i was beating myself for not jumping on Miami +6.5.
 
at least I didn't catch an 0fer. And I should have hedged out of Miami, I guess.

...got greedy and wanted a good day. At least going 1-3 I didn't lose much.........less than .2 unit.

that was awfully frustrating, though.
 
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