NBA ML dogs 4.16

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 89-151, 37.08%, +30.87 units
Spreads: 194-178-17, 49.87%, +20.06 units

Suns +6 2 units
Suns +230 2 units

First, I think neither team lets up tonight. Momentum seems to mean something to the suns, and the Rockets want to lock up the 4th best record in the west.

Suns coach Mike D'Antoni says the Suns won't ease up now that they've clinched the No. 2 seed in the West. "I don't think it's going to change our mind-set or our approach in the last two games," D'Antoni says.

Business as Usual for the Suns.

pertinent quote:

He said the eight-man rotation would play "normal minutes" unless the team got significantly behind.

And with how the quick guards used an abused Yao and the Rockets last time, I would expect to see Nash and Barbosa to both have excellent games.

Rockets on the other hand await pick-and-rolls...

[quote="Jeff Van Gundy]
"I think it's either we're going to defend it better and win or we're not going to defend it better and lose," he said. "It's really pretty simple. It's not that complicated. And if we are always talking about how hard it is versus how we're going to get it done, then we'll be sitting at home lamenting our fate."
[/quote]

Now, if the teams play like they don't give a fuck or if the coaches are lying, then anything can happen here...but what I THINK will happen is an inordinate amount of pick and rolls out of the suns leading to open 3pt shots or to layups and dunks. Last time they played, the Suns quickies utterly abused Yao on the defensive end...

"The Suns are a team that we've been having trouble with all season long," said Tracy McGrady. "With their style of play, they're able to kind of take Yao (Ming) out of the game with their quickness and length.

here are some trends if they matter at this point in the season...
recently:
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home

Houston's been on a nice little run recently against some very bad teams...Phoenix has been playing pretty much EVERYONE well.

I think we'll see 20-25 3pt shots out of Houston tonight, and that plays into the Suns style well...missed 3s will turn into quick outlets and layups...especially if Nash or Barbosa gets the rebound.

GL tonight gentlemen.

 

[redbearde]

Also, last few games between these two in phoenix, it was Suns -6. Last time in Houston it was Rockets +8.5...

wtf has happened to warrant this sort of line shift, I have no idea...

*shrug*

 

[redbearde]

I have great sympathy for a Portland ML play. 13 (or 10or 11:1) is silly considering how Utah has played recently.

 

[redbearde]

I do not have sympathy at all for a play on

the Twolves, Hawks, or Grizz ML

I have no real opinion on the rest...I think they're about right.

 

[blownaway]

I think this is a solid play.....The Suns are a matchup nightmare and coming off a dominating performance vs the Jazz, I see them getting in playoff mode. They also shot 31 FTs last game vs the Jazz.....that means they are going to the rim which could lead to Yao foul trouble.

 

[redbearde]

hahha...I don't think Yao is quick enough to foul them...Barbosa should wind around that guy like a snake...

 

[blownaway]

haha you are probably right since thats what happened last game.......I expect John Lucas III to get some minutes vs Nash to try to slow him down......Rafer and Yao could be the worst pick and roll defense in the world

 

[doublem9]

thanks for the writeup...gonna look into it leaning suns too, GL

 

[tuck321]

Getting interested in this. Agree the Suns will not lay down here. Where is Eames?

 

[The Farm]

Also, last few games between these two in phoenix, it was Suns -6. Last time in Houston it was Rockets +8.5...

wtf has happened to warrant this sort of line shift, I have no idea...

*shrug*

I agree red..
With " business as usual", I like the over and suns ML..
GL tonight mate:cheers:

 

[JDyna$ty]

if the Suns win their last two games, they would eclipse the franchise's single-season record for victories with 63. I know this team will only be happy with a world championship. However, this is a nice honor i'm sure Nash and the boys would like to lay claim to.

 

[Inspekdah]

I don't know... I could see HOU winning by DD's even if PHO plays a regular game

 

[giulia]

Portland +13,5 look tasty ..

 

[redbearde]

Thanks for the comments guys. GL to you tonight!

 

[redbearde]

Roy is now doubtful for today.

Who is Portland's offense going to run through......? Go Jack to Outlaw!

 

[Ally]

If I'm not mistaken, Suns didn't need to win towards the end of last year, but still played the same till the last game. Hopefully the same happens this year. I have the Sun ML.

Good luck.

 

[Throwback420]

So this is just a normal game for the Suns ? They gonna play like they have all season nothing Different ?

 

[redbearde]

I hope so.

Don't like being against the big ol Alimony, tho...

 

[redbearde]

well, both sure did both play the all holy fuck out of this game...

 

[redbearde]

okay...shot and foul with .3 secs......that should seal the game.

Would have liked to get the win, but down by 10 with 45 secs left didn't look good....I'll take the positive day and be happy.

ML dogs: 89-152, 36.93%, +28.87 units
Spreads: 195-178-17, 50%, +22.06 units

 

[tuck321]

:shake: They showed up!

 

[Throwback420]

Suns :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

ya. really it was the rockets folding up and screwing themselves in the 4th. and there were some questionable possession calls in the last 15 secs...not that it let the Suns tie it...but they had more chances than they should have.

 

[blownaway]

nice call on Phx with the points.....I felt that was a given because of the 100% chance of the backdoor cover against the Rockets. Some reason in the 4th quarter we let teams back in it.....its happened all season.

The over was the play of the day