NBA ML dogs 3.5

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 76-131, 36.71%, +18.47 units
Spreads: 149-139-13, 49.5%, +10.24 units

Rockets +3 (-110)
Rockets +140
Spurs -6 (-110)
Bucks +5.5 (+101)
Bucks +215
Bobcats +14.5 (-105)
Hawks +235
Hawks +6 (even)

I figure this one keeps getting bet down. I'll probably add some ML tomorrow, and if it rises significantly, I may add another spread wager. Yao is probable. But more importantly, this line strikes me as way inflated...by like 3 to 4 points. at open. On December 2, Houston was a 6.5pt fave, and they won 81-63. Tomorrow may be closer, but Houston should have more than an ample shot at this win to warrant good consideration.

Cleveland's been playing great recently winning against the likes of

Toronto
New Orleans
Lakers

and losing to the likes of

Dallas
Miami
Chicago

Which style of play does Houston remind you fellas of?

If Houston lets them get out and run, then it ought to be a tough night for the rockets, but if this stays in a halfcourt game, and I think it likely will, then Houston should dominate all the fuck over them.

Daniel Gibson is out. He's probably the Cavs most reliable outside threat.

Tomorrow I also very much like the looks of:
MilK @ Orlando - vengeance, MAgic first game home off tough road trip, and Milwaukee is healthy for this one...
Detroit chalk against the Warriors, though it would have to be unreasonably low for me to bother, I think...
Spurs road chalk kicking all holy shit out of the Clippers. With luck, Tony Parker's absence will keep this line short.

Charlotte at +13.5 is a fucking joke. I'm not sure what the hell that's about. With no interior, the kitties matched rebounds with Seattle tonight...okay, I know Seattle concentrates on rebounding like Memphis concentrates on defense now, but 2 TDs...? Kitties won last time they met as 6.5pt dogs...

may take the points there as I really don't think the kitties can win that game.
 
^^ you still can get +7 at sportsbook most of the other books have it at 6
 
Still thinking about those Rockets. Only concern is Yao Ming being back and the team adjusting to him in the lineup. Either way I doubt he plays more than 15 min. I'm definitely taking a look at that total as I thought it'd be in the 170-75 range. This game could easily have a 35 point qtr in the mix.

Fading Orlando has shown to be profitable. Might be a great game to hit the Bucks first half as they should be very motivated after their meltdown tonight.

You're a braver man than I am if you're going to touch that Detroit game.

Spurs game is another one that I'm drooling over the total. Anything 180 and above I'm all over the under. Both teams playing phenominal (sp) defense the last few. I can certainly see a 90-81 Spurs victory here.

Disclaimer: Jazz fan. The Jazz rarely cover big #'s. They love the close game. I'll probably wait until halftime when the jazz are up dd's and play the Bobcats 2nd half. The one thing that this game differs mostly from the previous matchup was Okafor. He is a beast inside which can cause the jazz some fits as they have no inside defensive presence. With him out you're going to be missing some offensive boards that would help keep this game close. Either way I'd agree with a Bobcats play, but I think you may end up being able to get a +15 or more if you wait until halftime.

Love the Hawks tomorrow as 7 point dogs.
 
Last edited:
Early concensus on Miami, and we see a 1pt over-night line move to a very un-public and unpopular Atlanta Hawks team.

Looks like a wise move.
 
Shitty that I just said I liked the Hawks. Nothing wise about what I got going these days.
 
I think it might take some time for the Rockets' offense to get going again with Yao back in - from all reports he has been complaining about the brace he has to wear as well. Also think the Hawks are worth a look, depends on how the lines moves though.

GL today RB
 
well the Rockets line has moved to +3.5 and might get to +4 if people hop on the LeBron train. (I don't know why)

the heat line has gone down to -6
 
So far thinking about Houston and SA. GL Red :shake: :cheers:

P.S. Pinny has the game at 7 (LAC-SA)
 
thanks for the comments guys...

Rockets +140

might get a couple more cents from matchbook later, but losing the commission would make up for that.....so getting it now at bookmaker.
 
Spurs @ Clippers

I'm riding this train for as long as I can. Spurs have been kicking complete and utter ass, and I love it. Greek has this at -6.

of note:
San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games
LA Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing San Antonio
LA Clippers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games when playing San Antonio
LA Clippers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Last time they played in december, the Spurs weren't playing in the stellar form they are now, and they STILL throttled the Clippers 103-81.

JPicks, you drooling over that under has a lot of historical reference:
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of San Antonio's last 25 games when playing LA Clippers

anyway,

Spurs -6 (-110) Greek
 
Don't forget Spurs average score during the streak is somewhat 100-80 (rounded the numbers a bit, but you get the idea).

Without TP they trashed the Rockets IN HOUSTON, 74-97. Insane stuff.
 
MilK @ Magic.

I wondered how they would set this line...

After a long and tough road trip, the Magic are at home against a better team that is healthy. Grant Hill is probable. Bucks won at home against them in early February. Magic crushed the Bucks the previous time out...I had the bucks then, too.

of note:
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Orlando
Milwaukee is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Orlando is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Orlando is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Mo Williams. Michael Redd. at well over 2:1......against this bunch of frickin losers...

I'll take it.

Bucks +5.5 (+101)
Bucks +215
 
Satyr said:
Don't forget Spurs average score during the streak is somewhat 100-80 (rounded the numbers a bit, but you get the idea).

Without TP they trashed the Rockets IN HOUSTON, 74-97. Insane stuff.
Click to expand...

having TP would be better, but I'm not all that fussed about not having him.

'an_horse'
 
I don't get it. So I'm throwing money away.

Bobcats +14.5 (-105) 5dimes

of note:
Charlotte is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte

no reason in my mind to take them SU...
 
The way they played in Houston, not having TP wasn't noticeable at all, the way they distributed the rock, an all round, team effort, that's what gives me the confidence they can cover this one with ease, provided they enter the game as fired up as in previous matches. Since this game isn't the 2nd of a b2b, I don't see why they wouldn't.


Gotta stop writing now or people won't have any reasons to check my thread :an_roll_laugh:

You should start paying me as I'm becoming your guest writer :D. lol
 
I'm not quite as ecstatic about fading Miami as you fellas are. Yeah, the line is a bit inflated, but I think there's a high likelihood that the Heat cover it...

and then I see that Udonis Haslem and Gary Payton have the kissing disease and are questionable with illnesses......

hmmmmmm
 
Satyr said:
The way they played in Houston, not having TP wasn't noticeable at all, the way they distributed the rock, an all round, team effort, that's what gives me the confidence they can cover this one with ease, provided they enter the game as fired up as in previous matches. Since this game isn't the 2nd of a b2b, I don't see why they wouldn't.


Gotta stop writing now or people won't have any reasons to check my thread :an_roll_laugh:

You should start paying me as I'm becoming your guest writer :D. lol
Click to expand...

Where do I send the check?

:cheers:
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">I'm back Redbearde! Good luck tonight! I'm tailing you on the Bucks,Bobcats and Rockets! Let's sweep the board bro...oh yeah!
</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
GL man.. I like the hawks too.. and i really really like the under for ORL coming off the long road trp and bucks playing away
 
Terpman92! Nice to see you again! I hope you win your bets tonight! hehe...

El Mago, I haven't played the Hawks...I like the spot all things being equal, but I don't like that there's no one to come close to defending Shaq....with moderately well-executed offense on both sides, this one could get crazy...

but I have absolutely no idea where it would go...seems equally likely to get blown out in either direction.

Got any ideas that might influence me?

I tend to agree on the under, but I like my Side enough that I'll leave it at the bucks.
 
nevermind...I'm being a degenerate.

Hawks +6 (+100)
Hawks +235

First place I go to check numbers now (after matchbook) is getting to be 5dimes. 228 at matchbook and 235 at 5dimes reduced juice...

=)
 
Wow, big night for you Red. Can't believe everyone's on the Hawks, I just made my thread and figured everyone would think I'm a joke. I love them though. GL tonight
 
what can I say...we're all on the ATLHawks Bandwagon!

jumpy.gif
 
Rockets are down by 3. 88-85...they play good defense, and get a jump ball.

Refs put 5 seconds on the clock instead of the 3 that were left. Game clock was at 14.4.

After the jump ball, the Rockets again play great defense. Finally the refs call a foul.

There is now 9.2 showing on the game clock and 1 showing on the shot clock.

do the math. someone fucked up and likely cost the rockettes backers the cover.

:angry:

Just looking like a very bad day for me...so far...damnit.
 
:36_11_6:

I almost hope the Clips can make the run so it's a clean sweep of anal rape for me today...hahaha....I was just on the wrong side of way too damned many games.

Fuckin hell. The unders were much smarter bets...alas.

GJ to you guys who recognized the value in the unders today.

:shake:
 
YAY! I won one...hahaha...and I guess those linesmen knew what they were talking about with the kitties/Jazz line...at least I didn't waste a ML unit...

0-3, 1-4 tonight. alas.

ML dogs: 76-134, 36.19%, +15.47 units
Spreads: 150-143-13, 49.02%, +7.08 units
 
well, I doubt I'll get it all back...gotta pick my spots, and I seriously doubt I'll have this many plays again tomorrow...

but I'll see about getting some of it back, I guess.
 
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